scholarly journals Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Uncertainty Analysis in R

2019 ◽  
Vol 88 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Kaschek ◽  
Wolfgang Mader ◽  
Mirjam Fehling-Kaschek ◽  
Marcus Rosenblatt ◽  
Jens Timmer
2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Kaschek ◽  
Wolfgang Mader ◽  
Mirjam Fehling-Kaschek ◽  
Marcus Rosenblatt ◽  
Jens Timmer

AbstractIn a wide variety of research elds, dynamic modeling is employed as an instrument to learn and understand complex systems. The differential equations involved in this process are usually non-linear and depend on many parameters whose values decide upon the characteristics of the emergent system. The inverse problem, i.e. the inference or estimation of parameter values from observed data, is of interest from two points of view. First, the existence point of view, dealing with the question whether the system is able to reproduce the observed dynamics for any parameter values. Second, the identi ability point of view, investigating invariance of the prediction under change of parameter values, as well as the quanti cation of parameter uncertainty.In this paper, we present the R packagedModproviding a framework for dealing with the inverse problem in dynamic systems. The particularity of the approach taken bydModis to provide and propagate accurate derivatives computed from symbolic expres-sions wherever possible. This derivative information highly supports the convergence of optimization routines and enhances their numerical stability, a requirement for the appli-cability of so sticated uncertainty analysis methods. Computational efficiency is achieved by automatic generation and execution of C code. The framework is object oriented (S3) and provides a variety of functions to set up dynamic models, observation functions and parameter transformations for multi-conditional parameter estimation.The key elements of the framework and the methodology implemented indModare highlighted by an application on a three-compartment transporter model.


2019 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 170-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long T. Ho ◽  
Andres Alvarado ◽  
Josue Larriva ◽  
Cassia Pompeu ◽  
Peter Goethals

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Xie ◽  
Zhenyao Shen ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
Xijun Lai ◽  
Jiali Qiu ◽  
...  

Hydrologic modeling is usually applied to two scenarios: continuous and event-based modeling, between which hydrologists often neglect the significant differences in model application. In this study, a comparison-based procedure concerning parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis is presented based on the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) model. Calibrated parameters related to base flow and moisture distribution showed marked differences between the continuous and event-based modeling. Results of the regionalized sensitivity analysis identified event-dependent parameters and showed that gravity drainage and storage outflow were the primary runoff generation processes for both scenarios. The overall performance of the event-based simulation was better than that of the daily simulation for streamflow based on the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The GLUE analysis also indicated that the performance of the continuous model was limited by several extreme events and low flows. In the event-based scenario, the HSPF model performances decreased as the precipitation became intense in the event-based modeling. The structure error of the HSFP model was recognized at the initial phase of the rainfall-event period. This study presents a valuable opportunity to understand dominant controls in different hydrologic scenario and guide the application of the HSPF model.


2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 11-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Lindblom ◽  
H. Madsen ◽  
P.S. Mikkelsen

In this paper two attempts to assess the uncertainty involved with model predictions of copper loads from stormwater systems are made. In the first attempt, the GLUE methodology is applied to derive model parameter sets that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the measurements. In the second attempt the conceptual model is reformulated to a grey-box model followed by parameter estimation. Given data from an extensive measurement campaign, the two methods suggest that the output of the stormwater pollution model is associated with significant uncertainty. With the proposed model and input data, the GLUE analysis show that the total sampled copper mass can be predicted within a range of ±50% of the median value (385 g), whereas the grey-box analysis showed a prediction uncertainty of less than ±30%. Future work will clarify the pros and cons of the two methods and furthermore explore to what extent the estimation can be improved by modifying the underlying accumulation-washout model.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document