Comparative uncertainty analysis of copper loads in stormwater systems using GLUE and grey-box modeling

In this paper two attempts to assess the uncertainty involved with model predictions of copper loads from stormwater systems are made. In the first attempt, the GLUE methodology is applied to derive model parameter sets that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the measurements. In the second attempt the conceptual model is reformulated to a grey-box model followed by parameter estimation. Given data from an extensive measurement campaign, the two methods suggest that the output of the stormwater pollution model is associated with significant uncertainty. With the proposed model and input data, the GLUE analysis show that the total sampled copper mass can be predicted within a range of ±50% of the median value (385 g), whereas the grey-box analysis showed a prediction uncertainty of less than ±30%. Future work will clarify the pros and cons of the two methods and furthermore explore to what extent the estimation can be improved by modifying the underlying accumulation-washout model.

Download Full-text

Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of ORYZA_V3 Model Using the GLUE Method

Transactions of the ASABE ◽

10.13031/trans.13419 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 62 (4) ◽

pp. 941-949

Author(s):

Junwei Tan ◽

Qingyun Duan

Keyword(s):

Parameter Estimation ◽

Uncertainty Analysis ◽

Field Experiments ◽

Likelihood Function ◽

Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽

Model Errors ◽

Uncertainty Estimates ◽

Model Predictions ◽

Glue Method ◽

Likelihood Measures

Abstract. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method is one of the popular methods for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis, although it has been criticized for some drawbacks in numerous studies. In this study, we performed an uncertainty analysis for the ORYZA_V3 model using the GLUE method integrated with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). Different likelihood measures were examined to understand the differences in derived posterior parameter distributions and uncertainty estimates of the model predictions based on a variety of observations from field experiments. The results indicated that the parameter posterior distributions and 95% confidence intervals (95CI) of model outputs were very sensitive to the choice of likelihood measure, as well as the weights assigned to observations at different dates and to different observation types within a likelihood measure. Performance of the likelihood measure with a proper likelihood function based on normal distribution of model errors and the combining method based on mathematical multiplication was the best, with respect to the effectiveness of reducing the uncertainties of parameter values and model predictions. Moreover, only the means and standard deviations of observation replicates were enough to construct an effective likelihood function in the GLUE method. This study highlighted the importance of using appropriate likelihood measures integrated with multiple observation types in the GLUE method. Keywords: GLUE, Likelihood measures, Model uncertainty, Crop model.

Download Full-text

Microvariation in multilingual situations: The importance of property-by-property acquisition: Pros and cons

Second language Research ◽

10.1177/0267658320945761 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 026765832094576

Author(s):

Suzanne Flynn

Keyword(s):

Language Learning ◽

Learning Process ◽

Universal Grammar ◽

Third Language ◽

L3 Acquisition ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Pros And Cons ◽

Property Acquisition ◽

Made In

This provocative article raises many important issues that need to be addressed and in so doing will advance the fields of second language (L2) and third language (L3) acquisition in several important ways. Fundamental questions concerning multilingual development persist especially with respect to the role of Universal Grammar in this language learning process. This response article has a dual role: It first outlines those areas of agreement with the proposals made in this article and, second, it discusses those areas of the proposed model that need to be confronted in order to have the model evaluated as a fully viable one.

Download Full-text

Digital Innovation & Transformation Opportunities for Researchers & Practitioners – A Structured Literature Review & Proposed Model

10.31355/58 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 22-74

Author(s):

Raafat Saade

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

Conceptual Model ◽

Integral Theory ◽

New Paradigm ◽

Digital Innovation ◽

Research And Practice ◽

Innovation Research ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Structured Literature Review ◽

Made In

Aim/Purpose Although the latest review on digital innovation was made in 2018 (included articles up to 2017), the purpose of this study is to explore and examine opportunities for research in digital innovation and transformation for both researchers (including graduate students) and practitioners. A conceptual model is proposed. Background Digital innovation is omnipresent today, as it has penetrated deep into the structure and psyche of individuals, communities, organizations, institutions and governments. We find ourselves in a quagmire of opportunities risks and uncertainties, where ubiquitous technological interconnectedness form a new paradigm enabling industry to innovate and grow. All humanity is faced with these disruptive digital pressures. Yet, relatively there is little research done. Unfortunately, a coordinated effort for such a seriously important phenome-non does not exist. Methodology A structured literature review approach was conducted, the results of which were used for a qualitative approach, using nVivo, to extract insights and understanding. Findings This study identifies the extent of research done in the different areas of digital innovation and transformation and puts the results into perspective. Scholarly research is scarce, dispersed and diverse, lacking any direction or cohesion. Research on transformation is more than innovation and in both cases those that study their relationships with human or society are a handful. A conceptual model is proposed by integrating knowledge gained from the literature, the integral theory and the concept of impact assessment. Impact on Society This study shows that the integration of human agency digital innovation research and practice is primary. Researchers and practitioners can use the conceptual model to help them expand and extend their work.

Download Full-text

Penerapan Konsep Kota Pintar dengan Cara Penerapan ERP (Electronic Road Price) di Jalan Ibu Kota DKI Jakarta

Jurnal Informatika Universitas Pamulang ◽

10.32493/informatika.v5i1.4433 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 13

Author(s):

Arman Syah Putra

Keyword(s):

Erp System ◽

The Road ◽

Road Price ◽

The Future ◽

Pros And Cons ◽

Made In

The problem raised in this research is the implementation of ERP (Electronic Road Price) which will be applied in several street corners of the capital of Jakarta, many pros and cons that will occur in its application, ranging from its licensing to its application in the field, socialization to users the road in the capital is very important to do because it will directly intersect with motorized motorists in the capital of Jakarta, in its application also must be considered using what tools are best placed in every corner of the capital to help smooth the system to be applied, in this research the author will provide suggestions and frameworks so that the implementation of the ERP system (Electronic Road Price) can be carried out right away, with the suggestions that have been made are expected to influence the policies that will be made in terms of ERP (Electronic Road Price) in the future.

Download Full-text

Factors of Dementia Caregiver Burden Differentially Contribute to Desire to Institutionalize

Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry and Neurology ◽

10.1177/08919887211036183 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 089198872110361

Author(s):

John T. Martin ◽

Kimberly R. Chapman ◽

Christopher Was ◽

Mary Beth Spitznagel

Keyword(s):

Factor Analysis ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Factor Structure ◽

Caregiver Burden ◽

Living Arrangements ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Loved One ◽

Dementia Caregiver ◽

Future Work ◽

Made In

The experience of dementia caregiver burden is multidimensional. Little is known about how different aspects of burden contribute to the consideration of moving a loved one to a structured living facility. In the present study, caregiver burden (Zarit Burden Interview; ZBI) and consideration of structured living arrangements (Desire to Institutionalize Scale; DIS) were self-reported by 339 caregivers. Exploratory factor analysis was used to determine the ZBI factor structure; these factors were then examined via hierarchical linear regression for prediction of DIS. Factor analysis indicated a 4-factor ZBI solution: Impact on Life, Guilt, Embarrassment/Frustration, and Escape/Uncertainty. Regression analyses indicated that only Escape/Uncertainty ( p < .001) was associated with DIS. Of the 4 identified factors of caregiver burden, desire to escape the caregiving role was most related to consideration of structured living arrangements. Future work should explore longitudinal contribution of this factor to determine its role in actual changes made in living arrangements.

Download Full-text

Progress and Prospects for the Development of Computer-Generated Actors for Military Simulation: Part 1-Introduction and Background

Presence Teleoperators & Virtual Environments ◽

10.1162/105474603765879558 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 311-325 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Martin R. Stytz ◽

Sheila B. Banks

Keyword(s):

Research Area ◽

Background Information ◽

Life Cycle Costs ◽

Material Management ◽

Reasoning System ◽

Force Structure ◽

The Cost ◽

Future Work ◽

Level Training ◽

Made In

The development of computer-generated synthetic environments, also calleddistributed virtual environments, for military simulation relies heavily upon computer-generated actors (CGAs) to provide accurate behaviors at reasonable cost so that the synthetic environments are useful, affordable, complex, and realistic. Unfortunately, the pace of synthetic environment development and the level of desired CGA performance continue to rise at a much faster rate than CGA capability improvements. This insatiable demand for realism in CGAs for synthetic environments arises from the growing understanding of the significant role that modeling and simulation can play in a variety of venues. These uses include training, analysis, procurement decisions, mission rehearsal, doctrine development, force-level and task-level training, information assurance, cyberwarfare, force structure analysis, sustainability analysis, life cycle costs analysis, material management, infrastructure analysis, and many others. In these and other uses of military synthetic environments, computer-generated actors play a central role because they have the potential to increase the realism of the environment while also reducing the cost of operating the environment. The progress made in addressing the technical challenges that must be overcome to realize effective and realistic CGAs for military simulation environments and the technical areas that should be the focus of future work are the subject of this series of papers, which survey the technologies and progress made in the construction and use of CGAs. In this, the first installment in the series of three papers, we introduce the topic of computer-generated actors and issues related to their performance and fidelity and other background information for this research area as related to military simulation. We also discuss CGA reasoning system techniques and architectures.

Download Full-text

A CONCEPTUAL MODEL TO UNDERSTAND THE EFFECTS OF PERCEPTION ON THE CONTINUANCE INTENTION IN FACEBOOK

Australian Journal of Business and Management Research ◽

10.52283/nswrca.ajbmr.20110108a04 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 01 (08) ◽

pp. 29-34

Author(s):

Shih-Chih Chen ◽

Huei-Huang Chen ◽

Mei-Tzu Lin ◽

Yu-Bei Chen

Keyword(s):

Information System ◽

Social Networking ◽

Conceptual Model ◽

Ease Of Use ◽

Perceived Usefulness ◽

System Quality ◽

Perceived Ease Of Use ◽

Continuance Intention ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Managerial Implications

Recently, the social networking applications expand rapidly and attract a lot of users in a short time period. This study attempts to develop a conceptual model to understand the continuance intention in the context of social networking. The conceptual model integrates the post-acceptance model of information system continuance with perceived ease-of-use and perceived usefulness proposed by Bhattacherjee (2001a) and Davis (1989), respectively. In the proposed model, continuance intention is influenced by the relationship quality and information system quality. Additionally, nine propositions are developed based the proposed model and literature review. Finally, conclusions, managerial implications, and future direction of research are also provided.

Download Full-text

Caveats and Pitfalls of Production Forecast Uncertainty Analysis Using Design of Experiments

10.2118/203919-ms ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Boxiao Li ◽

Hemant Phale ◽

Yanfen Zhang ◽

Timothy Tokar ◽

Xian-Huan Wen

Keyword(s):

Design Of Experiments ◽

Uncertainty Analysis ◽

History Matching ◽

Petroleum Industry ◽

Production Forecast ◽

Forecast Uncertainty ◽

Field Development ◽

Development Alternatives ◽

Modeling Principles ◽

Made In

Abstract Design of Experiments (DoE) is one of the most commonly employed techniques in the petroleum industry for Assisted History Matching (AHM) and uncertainty analysis of reservoir production forecasts. Although conceptually straightforward, DoE is often misused by practitioners because many of its statistical and modeling principles are not carefully followed. Our earlier paper (Li et al. 2019) detailed the best practices in DoE-based AHM for brownfields. However, to our best knowledge, there is a lack of studies that summarize the common caveats and pitfalls in DoE-based production forecast uncertainty analysis for greenfields and history-matched brownfields. Our objective here is to summarize these caveats and pitfalls to help practitioners apply the correct principles for DoE-based production forecast uncertainty analysis. Over 60 common pitfalls in all stages of a DoE workflow are summarized. Special attention is paid to the following critical project transitions: (1) the transition from static earth modeling to dynamic reservoir simulation; (2) from AHM to production forecast; and (3) from analyzing subsurface uncertainties to analyzing field-development alternatives. Most pitfalls can be avoided by consistently following the statistical and modeling principles. Some pitfalls, however, can trap experienced engineers. For example, mistakes made in handling the three abovementioned transitions can yield strongly unreliable proxy and sensitivity analysis. For the representative examples we study, they can lead to having a proxy R2 of less than 0.2 versus larger than 0.9 if done correctly. Two improved experimental designs are created to resolve this challenge. Besides the technical pitfalls that are avoidable via robust statistical workflows, we also highlight the often more severe non-technical pitfalls that cannot be evaluated by measures like R2. Thoughts are shared on how they can be avoided, especially during project framing and the three critical transition scenarios.

Download Full-text

CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY OF PROJECT ACTIVITY AT THE LOCAL LEVEL

Electronic scientific publication Public Administration and National Security ◽

10.25313/2617-572x-2021-3-7391 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Oleksandra Bazko ◽

◽

Nataliia Yushchenko ◽

Keyword(s):

Conceptual Model ◽

Communicative Competence ◽

Local Level ◽

Organizational Factors ◽

Target Component ◽

Group Project ◽

Project Activity ◽

Proposed Model ◽

Basic Approaches ◽

Effective Use

The article proposes a conceptual model for improving the efficiency of project activities at the local level. The essence of project activity efficiency is determined and the basic approaches to the analysis of criteria and factors of project activity success in general are analyzed. The factors during the organization of group project activities are generalized and analyzed, including social-psychological, external-organizational factors and the level of readiness of territorial communities for project activities. It is determined that the level of readiness of territorial communities to carry out project activities is a set of motives, knowledge, skills, abilities, methods of project actions, personal qualities that ensure the successful interaction of its subjects. It is substantiated that the concept of the offered model consists in the most effective use of possibilities of group project activity for maintenance of qualitative formation of communicative competence of territorial communities, their personal and professional development. The key components of the proposed model are: conceptual-target, functional, structural, diagnostic. It is determined that the main purpose of the conceptual-target component is to form communicative competence, mastering the methods of solving problem-oriented tasks by means of project activities. The functional component of the model includes the identification of the entities on which the effectiveness of the project activity depends, and which carry out its evaluation. It was found that the structural component of the model contains the stages according to which project activities should be organized at the local level. The diagnostic component of the model contains criteria and indicators, levels, means of evaluating the effectiveness of project activities. Within this component, three levels of project activity efficiency (low, medium, high) are defined on the basis of taking into account the results achieved in the project activity process.

Download Full-text