scholarly journals Modelling Global Burden of Disease Measures in Selected European Countries Using Robust Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (347) ◽  
pp. 109-127
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Orwat-Acedańska

The aim of the paper is to study relationships between selected socio‑economic factors and health of European citizens. The health level is measured by selected global burden of disease measures – DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) and its two components: YLL (Years of Life Lost) and YLD (Years Lived with Disability). We identify which factors significantly affect these indicators of health. The empirical study uses a panel data comprising 16 countries mostly from the old‑EU in the period 2003–2013. Fixed‑effects dynamic spatial panel data (DSPD) models are used to account for autocorrelations of the dependent variables across time and space. The models are estimated with a novel, modified quasi maximum likelihood Yang method based on M‑estimators. The approach is robust on the distribution of the initial observations. The empirical analysis covers specification, estimation, and verification of the models. The results show that changes in YLD are significantly related to alcohol consumption, healthcare spending, social spending, GDP growth rate and years of education. Exactly the same set of factors is associated with variation in DALYs. Sensitivity of the YLL component to the socio‑economic factors is considerably weaker.

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Negrón-Martínez

Abstract The global challenges and trends of our time include natural ecosystems disturbances and the global burden of disease attributable to Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) and emerging infectious diseases like coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Summed to this problem is the still undervalued accountability of economic and environmental sustainability in most nations. Many densely population settled cities around the world account for up to 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions mainly because of their substantial use of energy for buildings, industries, and transportation. Continued increases in urbanization are also driving more exposure to air pollution, water shortages, and waste-related risks to the population. This research aimed to show key connections between the multi-sectoral and interdependent determinants of health. The method followed a systematic review of primary and secondary data on various topics, including global health, environmental health indicators, socio-economic factors, and linkages between economic and environmental sustainability. Literature determines by 2050, 66% of the world's population projected to inhabit urban areas mostly. In 2012, the global burden of disease study by using the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) metric estimated that 23% of global deaths were attributable to the environment. DALYs metric compares years of life lost due to mortality and years of life lost due to disability by a specific cause, including the burden of risk factors, diseases, lifestyles, or individual's socio-economic status. Leading causes globally due to road traffic injuries, interpersonal violence, and suicide, take a substantial toll on those socio-economic factors. Health is a crucial attribute of human development in the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) achievable by scaling up the implementation of these goals in universal, holistic, and inclusive pathways. Hence, advancing sustainability policies to prosperous, healthier humanity. Key messages Public health's diverse components attained when there is a shared vision in the multidisciplinary teams to disease prevention and health promotion of all individuals that make up societies. Research and science communication should translate both the ideas of scientific progress and its implications for policies, economies and people's lifestyle choices.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-211
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Orwat-Acedańska

The aim of the paper is to investigate the relationship between socio-economic factors and the level of health of citizens of selected European countries. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used as the measure of health. The author applied dynamic spatial panel data models with fixed effects and spatial autocorrelation of the error term. The models were estimated using a novel, modified quasi maximum likelihood method based on M-estimators. The approach is resistant to deviations from the assumptions on the distribution of initial observations. The estimation of initial observations is a severe weakness of standard methods based on the maximization of the quasi-likelihood function in the case of short panels. M-estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The empirical analysis covers the specification, estimation, and verification of the models.


2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Periklis Charalampous ◽  
Elena Pallari ◽  
Stefanos Tyrovolas ◽  
Nicos Middleton ◽  
Mary Economou ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) accounted for over 90% of all deaths in the Cypriot population, in 2018. However, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the impact of NCDs on population health of Cyprus over the period of 1990 to 2017, expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), is currently not available. Knowledge about the drivers of changes in NCD DALYs over time is paramount to identify priorities for the prevention of NCDs in Cyprus and guide evidence-based decision making. The objectives of this paper were to: 1) assess the burden of NCDs in terms of years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and DALYs in Cyprus in 2017, and 2) identify changes in the burden of NCDs in Cyprus over the 28-year period and assess the main drivers of these changes. Methods We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 results on NCDs for Cyprus from 1990 to 2017. We calculated the percentage change of age-standardized DALY rates between 1990 and 2017 and decomposed these time trends to assess the causes of death and disability that were the main drivers of change. Results In Cyprus in 2017, 83% (15,129 DALYs per 100,000; 12,809 to 17,707 95%UI) of total DALYs were due to NCDs. The major contributors to NCD DALYs were cardiovascular diseases (16.5%), neoplasms (16.3%), and musculoskeletal disorders (15.6%). Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardized NCD DALY rates decreased by 23%. For both males and females, the largest decreases in DALY rates were observed in ischemic heart disease and stroke. For Cypriot males, the largest increases in DALY rates were observed for pancreatic cancer, drug use disorders, and acne vulgaris, whereas for Cypriot females these were for acne vulgaris, psoriasis and eating disorders. Conclusion Despite a decrease in the burden of NCDs over the period from 1990 to 2017, NCDs are still a major public health challenge. Implementation of interventions and early detection screening programmes of modifiable NCD risk factors are needed to reduce occurrence and exacerbation of leading causes of NCDs in the Cypriot population.


2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 159-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali H. Mokdad ◽  
George A. Mensah ◽  
Varsha Krish ◽  
Scott D. Glenn ◽  
Molly K. Miller-Petrie ◽  
...  

Objectives: Everyone deserves a long and healthy life, but in reality, health outcomes differ across populations. We use results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) to report patterns in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risks at the global, regional, national, and subnational level, and by sociodemographic index (SDI), from 1990 to 2017.Design: GBD 2017 undertook a systematic analysis of published studies and available data providing information on prevalence, incidence, remission, and excess mortal­ity. We computed prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, years of life lost due to prema­ture mortality, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years with 95% uncertainty intervals for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries from 1990 to 2017. We also computed SDI, a summary indicator combining measures of income, education, and fertility.Results: There were wide disparities in the burden of disease by SDI, with smaller burdens in affluent countries and in specific regions within countries. Select diseases and risks, such as drug use disorders, high blood pressure, high body mass index, diet, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and alco­hol use disorders warrant increased global attention and indicate a need for greater investment in prevention and treatment across the life course.Conclusions: Policymakers need a com­prehensive picture of what risks and causes result in disability and death. The GBD provides the means to quantify health loss: these findings can be used to examine root causes of disparities and develop pro­grams to improve health and health equity.Ethn Dis. 2019;29(Suppl 1): 159-172; doi:10.18865/ed.29.S1.159.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. e0190943 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Augusto Santos Silva ◽  
Mark Stephen Tremblay ◽  
Maria de Fatima Marinho de Souza ◽  
Meghan Mooney ◽  
Mohsen Naghavi ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 483-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liliana G Ciobanu ◽  
Alize J Ferrari ◽  
Holly E Erskine ◽  
Damian F Santomauro ◽  
Fiona J Charlson ◽  
...  

Objectives: Timely and accurate assessments of disease burden are essential for developing effective national health policies. We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 to examine burden due to mental and substance use disorders in Australia. Methods: For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, systematic reviews of epidemiological data were conducted, and data modelled using a Bayesian meta-regression tool to produce prevalence estimates by age, sex, geography and year. Prevalence for each disorder was then combined with a disorder-specific disability weight to give years lived with disability, as a measure of non-fatal burden. Fatal burden was measured as years of life lost due to premature mortality which were calculated by combining the number of deaths due to a disorder with the life expectancy remaining at the time of death. Disability-adjusted life years were calculated by summing years lived with disability and years of life lost to give a measure of total burden. Uncertainty was calculated around all burden estimates. Results: Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of non-fatal burden in Australia in 2015, explaining 24.3% of total years lived with disability, and were the second leading cause of total burden, accounting for 14.6% of total disability-adjusted life years. There was no significant change in the age-standardised disability-adjusted life year rates for mental and substance use disorders from 1990 to 2015. Conclusion: Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 found that mental and substance use disorders were leading contributors to disease burden in Australia. Despite several decades of national reform, the burden of mental and substance use disorders remained largely unchanged between 1990 and 2015. To reduce this burden, effective population-level preventions strategies are required in addition to effective interventions of sufficient duration and coverage.


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