ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXTERNAL DEBT, EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

2016 ◽  
Vol VII (2) ◽  
pp. 83-89
Author(s):  
Peter Ego Ayunku ◽  
◽  
Lydnon M. Etale ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Econometric Analysis

The Impact of Current Account Deficit on Economic Growth: An ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-92
Author(s):  
Tamma Reddy ◽  
T. Sita Ramaiah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

In this study, we examine the linkages between External debt, Exchange rate, Current account deficit, and GDP at Factor cost for India over the period of 1975-76 to 2018- 19 using the Unit root test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results of the unit root test reveal that GDP growth rate and External debt are integrated at the level I(0); while the Current Account deficit and Exchange rate are integrated at first order I(1). The results of the ARDL technique reveal that the current account deficit has a positive and significant impact on Real GDP. It clearly reflects the role of imports in accelerating the growth of a developing economy like India. There is also evidence that the external debt has a positive and significant impact on the Current account deficit while the Exchange rate does not have an impact on the Current account deficit. The authors opine that the external debt assists in a gradual reduction in the current account deficit and contributes to economic growth by narrowing down the saving-investment gap. As the demand for Indian exports is inelastic in the global market, the country has not benefitted from the depreciation of its currency. The authors stressed the need for focusing on further diversification of its export markets, creating a conducive environment for attracting longer-term FDIs, liberalization, promoting commercial services exports, and achieving exchange rate stability in the context of the USA-China trade war and stagnation in the world output growth. Huge untapped potential for IT-enabled services should be exploited to promote service trade. The authors point out the current account deficit in the range of 2-3 percent of GDP can be manageable.

scholarly journals EVOLUCION Y PROYECTOS DE LA ECONOMIA PERUANA

1995 ◽  
pp. 39-57
Author(s):  
Santiago Roca ◽  
◽  
Luis Simabuko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Two Factors

This article analyzes the Peruvian economy’s evolution during 1994 and its prospects for the next two years. Concerning 1994, according to the main economic indicators, we find that the country grew for the second consecutive year and reduced its inflation level. This result was influenced by two factors: the increase of domestic interest rate in foreign currency’s and the considerable income from privatization. As for the projections for 1995-1996, it was found that inflation (7-8% annual growth) and economic growth (7% annual growth) would be manageable as long as the assumptions about public expenditure, privatization revenues, and capital flows during the period were met. However, these same elements threaten the exchange rate, a central problem for the medium-term economic program’s viability. Also of concern is the dependence on foreign savings and the low level of domestic savings. We conclude by pointing out that in the future it will be necessary to promote economic investment that generates employment and not only financial investment, as well as to significantly reduce the external debt.

scholarly journals Co-Integration Approach to Analysing The Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-128
Author(s):  
Biradawa Kayadi ◽  
Confidence Chinwe Opara ◽  
Christy Twaliwi Zwingina ◽  
Udeme Okon Efanga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Ogbonna Ogbonna ◽  
Ihemeje Ihemeje ◽  
Obioma Obioma ◽  
Hanson Hanson ◽  
Amadi Amadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals BUDGET DEFICITS, EXTERNAL DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

2010 ◽  
Vol 55 (03) ◽  
pp. 491-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
TOKUNBO SIMBOWALE OSINUBI ◽  
RISIKAT OLADOYIN S. DAUDA ◽  
OLADELE EMMANUEL OLALERU
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Laffer Curve ◽  
External Borrowing

The necessity for governments to borrow in order to finance deficit budgets has led to the development of external debt. This study examines how the use of budget deficits as an instrument of stabilization leads to the accumulation of external debt with the attending effects on growth in Nigeria between 1970 and 2003. By synthesizing a relationship between budget deficits and external debt the study shows the implications on economic growth of conducting a fiscal policy within the contexts of debt stabilization and debt sustainability. The results of the econometric analysis confirm the existence of the debt Laffer curve and the nonlinear effects of external debt on growth in Nigeria. The study concludes that if debt-financed budget deficits are operated in order to stabilize the debt ratio at the optimum sustainable level debt overhang problems would be avoided and the benefits of external borrowing would be maximized.

Determinants of External Debt in Developing Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoang Khac Lich ◽  
Duong Cam Tu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Debt Accumulation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Net Exports ◽  
Effect Model

This paper investigates the determinants of external debt in developing countries. By analyzing the fixed effect model, with the panel data of 50 countries during 1996-2015, it shows that external debt has been increasing dramatically. This is because of an increase in debt accumulation in the past, public investment and exchange rate. By contrast, the pace of economic growth, inflation and net exports decreases the external debt.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of External Borrowing on the Economic Growth of the Developing Countries - Nigerian Experience

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeboye Akanni Akinwunmi ◽  
Rosemary Bukola Adekoya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of foreign borrowing on the economic growth of the developing nations using Nigeria as a case study. Time series data from 1985 and 2015 were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and other related journals. Data sourced were analyzed using Durbin Watson auto correlation to test for the reliability of the data and diagnostic tests such as unit root test (Augmented Dickey Fuller) and Johansen co-integration to test for the non-stationary of the data and long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. OLS multiple regressions were used as estimation technique to test for the relationship between the explanatory variables and economic growth. The study revealed that there is significant relationship between economic growth, exports, capital investment and debt service payment but external debt and exchange rate have a significant inverse relationship with economic growth. The study concludes that, capital investment, exports and debt service payment have impact on economic growth but external debt and exchange rate do not. Therefore, the study recommends that, purpose of borrowing should be considered important while channeling the borrowed funds and efficient utilization of the funds to solve the purpose by which it was acquired will go a long way to impact growth on the economy of the country.

scholarly journals Faktor-Faktor Penyebab Utang Luar Negeri dan Dampaknya Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Nunu Nugraha ◽  
Kamio Kamio ◽  
Diah Setyorini Gunawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Debtor Country ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Method ◽  
The Impact

This research aims to examine and analyze the effect of government spending, exchange rate, and Debtor economic growth on Indonesia's foreign debt, as well as the impact of external debt on economic growth. The tools of the analysis in this research used multiple linear regression method and use test (t-test and F-test). The result of study indicated government expenditures have a significant effect on foreign debt while debtor country exchange rate and economic growth have no significant effect on external debt. Simultaneously government spending, debt country,  exchange rate and economic growth significantly affected Indonesia's foreign debt in 2001-2017. Meanwhile, foreign debt has  significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia in 2001-2017.

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