scholarly journals The Timing Of Equity Mean Reversion In Relation To The Global Economic Cycle

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng-Hsing Hsieh ◽  
Kathleen Hodnett
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
International Studies ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Fama And French ◽  
Loser Portfolio

<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-pagination: none; mso-layout-grid-align: none;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Investor overreaction results in the systematic overshooting of stock prices and their subsequent mean reversion. International studies on the overreaction hypothesis generally find that the mean reversion of stock returns take place after a consistent winning or losing trek for over 36 months. We construct monthly-rebalanced prior 36-month winner and loser portfolios from global equities and examine their characteristics over the period from 1999 to 2009. Using the residual returns from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the 3-factor model of Fama and French (1993) as proxies for monthly abnormal returns, it is found that the loser portfolio accumulates abnormal returns mainly during turbulent times while the winner portfolio accumulates abnormal returns mainly during the upswing of the economic cycle. The resilient nature of the loser portfolio in the downswing of the economic cycle suggests that investments in past long-term losers could be regarded as a safe haven during financial market turmoil. In line with the prior study results conducted on South African stocks, the abnormal returns between the winner and loser portfolios are negatively correlated and the winner-loser spreads are found to be cyclical in relation to the economic cycle for global equities as investor sentiments and future prospects change.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span>

Studying the Effect of Changing the Managing Director on the Abnormal Returns of Shares of Companies Listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussein Hasan ◽  
Hudaa Nadhim Khalbas ◽  
Farqad Mohammed Bakr AL Saadi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns

The aim of this research is to study the market reaction to the change of the managing director and how this change affects the abnormal returns of the shares. The research is based on the information published by the companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, and 35 companies were selected for the period from 2015 to 2019. The results of the hypothesis test for this study show that there is a negative and significant relationship between the change of the managing director and abnormal stock returns. On the other hand, investors undervalue stock prices when changing CEOs. As a result, the stock returns are less than expected.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PERBEDAAN HARGA SAHAM, RETURN SAHAM, DAN ABNORMAL RETURN SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH STOCK SPLIT PADA PERUSAHAAN HIGH PROFILE DAN LOW PROFILE YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Pita Rahmawati ◽  
Jawoto Nusantoro ◽  
Gustin Padwa Sari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
T Test ◽  
Paired Sample ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
Stock Split ◽  
Before And After

This research aims to determine whether there are differences in stock prices, stock returns and abnormal returns before and after a stock split in high profile and low profile companies. The research period used in this study was on 2016-2018. The research was analyzed in quantitative method by using a purposive sampling method. Based on the sampling criteria, 40 companies were selected as research samples. Kolmogorov Smirnov One Sample test was used for the normality test. After the normality test was carried out, the data was processed using the two paired-sample difference test. The t-test (paired sample t-test) was used if data were normally distributed but if it was not normally distributed the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test would be used. Hypothesis testing results showed that (1) there are differences in stock prices whether before and after a stock split in high profile companies (2) there are differences in stock prices whether before and after the stock split in low profile companies (3) there are differences in stock returns whether before and after a stock split in the company high profile (4) there is no difference in stock returns whether before and after the stock split in low profile companies (5) there is no difference in abnormal returns whether before and after the stock split in high profile companies (6) there is no difference in abnormal returns whether before and after the stock split in low profile companies (7) there are differences in stock prices after a stock split in high profile companies and low profile (8) there is no difference in stock returns whether before and after the stock split in high profile and low profile companies (9) there is no difference in abnormal stock returns whether before and after a stock split at high profile and low profile companies.

scholarly journals Stock returns, illiquidity and feedback trading

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-145
Author(s):  
Jing Chen ◽  
David G. McMillan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results ◽  
European Markets ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose This study aims to examine the relation between illiquidity, feedback trading and stock returns for several European markets, using panel regression methods, during the financial and the sovereign debt crises. The authors’ interest here lies twofold. First, the authors seek to compare the results obtained here under crisis conditions with those in the existing literature. Second, and of greater importance, the authors wish to examine the interaction between liquidity and feedback trading and their effect on stock returns. Design/methodology/approach The authors jointly model both feedback trading and illiquidity, which are typically considered in isolation. The authors use panel estimation methods to examine the relations across the European markets as a whole. Findings The key results suggest that in common with the literature, illiquidity has a negative impact upon contemporaneous stock returns, while supportive evidence of positive feedback trading is reported. However, in contrast to the existing literature, lagged illiquidity is not a priced risk, while negative shocks do not lead to greater feedback trading behaviour. Regarding the interaction between illiquidity and feedback trading, the study results support the view that greater illiquidity is associated with stronger positive feedback. Originality/value The study results suggest that when price changes are more observable, due to low liquidity, then feedback trading increases. Therefore, during the crisis periods that afflicted European markets, the lower levels of liquidity prevalent led to an increase in feedback trading. Thus, negative liquidity shocks that led to a fall in stock prices were exacerbated by feedback trading.

Political connections and stock returns: evidence from the Boulangist campaign, 1888–1889

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-356
Author(s):  
Miguel Ángel Ortiz-Serrano
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Third Republic ◽  
Political Connections ◽  
Coup D'etat ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Political Agitation ◽  
Paris Bourse

The decade of the 1880s was a turbulent period for the French Third Republic. Corruption scandals that discredited republican parties and a lacklustre economic performance after the Paris Bourse crash of 1882 gave rise to widespread public disenchantment with the republican political elites. The rise of the Boulangist movement was the most representative example of this disillusionment. In 1887, Georges Boulanger, an army general and former minister of war, began orchestrating a populist mass campaign against the ruling republicans and the parliamentary regime. His political agitation, supported by a heterogeneous coalition of socialists, radicals and royalists, reached a climax in January 1889, when, after winning a Paris by-election, he had an opportunity to stage acoup d’état, which did not materialise. To understand whether French investors perceived the Boulangist campaign as a real threat to their interests, I use an original dataset of daily stock prices to analyse the effect of the January 1889 by-election on the value of politically connected firms listed on the Paris Bourse. The results show that firms with links to the republican parties experienced positive cumulative abnormal returns after Boulanger's refusal to stage the coup, while there was no effect on firms connected to the royalist parties or with no political ties. These findings suggest that French investors reacted positively to the prospective subsiding of the Boulangist movement.

EFFECT OF BONUS ISSUE ON STOCK PRICES OF COMPANIES QUOTED AT THE NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Patrick Maina Gachuhi ◽  
Cyrus Iraya
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Event Study Methodology

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of bonus issue on stock prices of companies quoted at the Nairobi securities exchangeMethodology: The study adopted an event study methodology since the study was concerned with the establishment of the information content of bonus issue announcement on share performance at the NSE. The population of this study was 61 companies listed in the NSE. A sample size of 10 listed companies was focused on as there were only 10 companies which had issued bonuses between 2009 and 2012. The study used secondary data to gather information. The collected secondary data was coded and entered into Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, Version 20) for analysisResults: The study findings revealed that there was a drastic incline from year 2009 to year 2010 followed by a slight decrease in abnormal returns in the following years, Abnormal returns present the difference between the actual returns and the expected returns over a certain period of time. Study findings from the market model indicated that the market return is a good predictor of stock returns.  ANOVA results indicated that abnormal returns after bonus issue were significantly higher than abnormal returns before bonus issue. ANOVA results also indicated that actual stock returns were significantly higher after bonus issue than before the bonus issuePolicy recommendation: The study recommends the NSE to establish and enhance policies for investing so as to attract and encourage large institutional and foreign investors to participate at the NSE. The study also recommends that policy makers and regulators at the NSE are encouraged to encourage more research on the NSE form of efficiency; this will provide a forum for investors to get the information on the form of efficiency of the market and boost their confidence when investing at the NSE

scholarly journals What Factors Affect Stocks’ Abnormal Return during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Yohanes Indrayono
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Early Period ◽  
World Health ◽  
Book Value ◽  
Market Capitalization

This study identifies Indonesian investors’ reactions to the drop in stock prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange market, during the early months of the COVID-19 crisis, before and after the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that its global spread constitutes a pandemic. It also explores variables that influence stock returns on this market during the financial crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses a regression analysis of 70 firms, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange to examine the pandemic’s influence on trading volume, market capitalization, profitability, and book value for the period December 31, 2019, to April 30, 2020. The results show that stock returns were lower in the early period of the financial crisis caused by the pandemic. Firms’ trading volumes, profitability and book values positively affected stock returns and their market capitalization negatively affected stock returns during the study period. This study contributes useful insights to the finance literature and stock-market participants in terms of dealing with stock markets during financial crises. This study recommends that in any crisis investors should begin buying stocks or increasing their stock purchases to achieve abnormal returns by choosing stocks that perform well in terms of firm profitability and book value by looking a number of financial factors.

scholarly journals Normal and reverse stock splits in the V4 countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 95-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Raisová ◽  
Martin Užik ◽  
Christian M. Hoffmeister
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Stock Splits ◽  
Announcement Date ◽  
Reverse Stock Splits ◽  
Stock Split ◽  
Reverse Stock Split ◽  
A Company

The economic crisis has forced managers of joint stock companies to look for short-term solutions for the sharp changes in stock prices of their companies. Even the companies of the V4 countries are not the exception. The authors have focused on those companies where have been used either reverse stock split or stock split. They analyzed the effects of the reverse stock split or stock splits on the abnormal returns of stocks. In this paper, the authors analyzed a dataset from 1993 until 2015 with 124 reverse stock splits and 184 stock splits in total focused on the stock market in V4. Based on their own research they conclude that when reverse stock splits were used stock returns significantly decreased one day around the announcement date. They conclude that managers of a company might use this instrument to move the stock price back to the optimal trading range outside of the penny stock area. In the case of stock splits, the authors concluded that the use of this tool results in a significant increase in the returns of a stock after the announcement date. However, the results are in contrast to some former studies which found no positive effect on the returns caused by stock splits. The authors conclude that managers of a company might use this instrument to transport information content of future (positive) performance of a company to the traders. Keywords: Vysegrad group countries, normal stock split, reverse stock split, abnormal returns. JEL Classification: G11, G23, G32

scholarly journals Earnings shocks: An event study on Boursa Kuwait

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-368
Author(s):  
Saad B F M AlHajraf
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Important Implication ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Kuwait Stock Exchange ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Abnormal Rate

This study investigates the effects of earnings announcements on stock prices in Boursa Kuwait, formerly known as the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE).  The data spans the period 2018–2020, and both positive and negative earnings announcements are employed as shock events and their effects assessed. The study results show that there is a statistically abnormal rate of return before and after the earnings announcements and that most abnormal returns are just after the earnings announcement.  This most likely indicates that Boursa Kuwait is a semi-strong efficient stock market.  One important implication is an indication that insider-related trading might be absent in Boursa Kuwait. 

scholarly journals "The Components Of Stock Prices: Evidence From The Japanese Stock Markets"

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios K. Tsoukalas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Information Hypothesis ◽  
Structural Vector

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;CG Times&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; font-size: 11pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">This study establishes permanent and temporary components of equity returns in the Japanese equity markets using, as explanatory variables, the fundamentals of stock prices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>We employ the structural Vector Auregression Approach (VAR) to a data set for the period January 1955 to December 1997.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>We consider the "information" hypothesis of dividends to justify the components of stock returns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span></span></p>

scholarly journals Testing the Monthly Calendar Anomaly of Stock Returns in Pakistan: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Saba Kausar
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stochastic Dominance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
January Effect ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
High Beta

In this paper, we first examine the presence of monthly calendar anomaly in Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) using aggregate and firm-level monthly stock returns. Secondly, we classify the sample firms into low-beta, medium-beta, and high-beta firms to examine the monthly anomaly of stock returns for firms having different level of systematic risk. By considering the stochastic dominance approach (SDA), we employ the simulation based method of Barrett and Donald (2003) to identify the dominant month over the period from January 2000 to December 2017. We find significant evidence of the existence of the January effect in both firm and market stock returns. We also find that the January effect exists more prominently in both low-risk and high-risk firms categorised based on their systematic risk. On the other end of the continuum, for moderately risky firms, there is strong evidence of the presence of the December effect. One of possible explanations of the January effect is the yearend bonus received in the month of January. Such bonuses are generally used to purchase stocks, causing the bullish trend of stock prices in January. However, the evidence of the January anomaly in both low-beta and high-beta portfolios returns is puzzling, suggesting that investors may invest in both low- and high-risk stocks when enthusiastically investing in stock market. The findings of the paper suggest that investors may get abnormal returns by forecasting stock return patterns and designing their investment strategies by taking into account the January and December effects and the level of systematic risk associated with the firms. JEL Classification: G02, G12, G14 Keywords: Behavioural Finance, Stochastic Dominance Approach, Monthly Anomaly, January Effect, December Effect, TOY Anomaly, Abnormal Returns, KS Type Test, PSX

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