scholarly journals Comparing Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Variability with Historical Climate Data: The Case of Ensaro District, Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abirham Cherinet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Historical Climate

scholarly journals Bivariate EMD-Based Data Adaptive Approach to the Analysis of Climate Variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Khademul Islam Molla ◽  
Poly Rani Ghosh ◽  
Keikichi Hirose
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Reference Signal ◽  
Complex Signal ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Adaptive Approach ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Data Adaptive

This paper presents a data adaptive approach for the analysis of climate variability using bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD). The time series of climate factors: daily evaporation, maximum and minimum temperatures are taken into consideration in variability analysis. All climate data are collected from a specific area of Bihar in India. Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is used here as the reference signal. The climate signal and fGn (of same length) are combined to produce bivariate (complex) signal which is decomposed using BEMD into a finite number of sub-band signals named intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Both of climate signal as well as fGn are decomposed together into IMFs. The instantaneous frequencies and Fourier spectrum of IMFs are observed to illustrate the property of BEMD. The lowest frequency oscillation of climate signal represents the annual cycle (AC) which is an important factor in analyzing climate change and variability. The energies of the fGn's IMFs are used to define the data adaptive threshold to separate AC. The IMFs of climate signal with energy exceeding such threshold are summed up to separate the AC. The interannual distance of climate signal is also illustrated for better understanding of climate change and variability.

scholarly journals Feminization of Hawksbill Turtle hatchlings in the Twenty-first Century at an important Regional Nesting Aggregation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Chatting ◽  
Shafeeq Hamza ◽  
Jassim Al-Khayat ◽  
David Smyth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Sex Ratios ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Eretmochelys Imbricata ◽  
Marine Turtles ◽  
Historical Climate ◽  
Incubation Temperatures ◽  
Nesting Aggregation

Projected climate change is forecasted to have significant effects on biological systems worldwide. Marine turtles in particular may be vulnerable, as the sex of their offspring is determined by their incubating temperature. This study is aimed to estimate historical and forecast future, primary sex ratios of hawksbill turtle hatchlings, Eretmochelys imbricata, in Qatar. Incubation temperatures were measured over two nesting seasons. Climate data from same period was regressed with nest temperatures to estimate incubation temperatures and hatchling sex ratios for the site from 1993 to 2100. Historical climate data showed female-biased sex ratios of 73.2 ±12.1% from 1993 to 2017. Female biases from 2018 to 2100 averaged 85.7% ±6.7%. In addition, predicted female hatchling production was >90% from 2054. These results show that hawksbill primary sex ratios in Qatar are at risk of significant feminization by the year 2100.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achenafi Teklay ◽  
Yihun T. Dile ◽  
Dereje H. Asfaw ◽  
Haimanote K Bayabil ◽  
Kibruyesfa Sisay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Lake Tana ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lake Tana Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract BackgroundHydrologic systems have been changing due to the impact of climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change are set to increase in the future due to the rise of global warming. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal hydrological processes is important for integrated water resource management. The Lake Tana basin, which is the source of the Upper Blue Nile, is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study was carried out in the four major tributary watersheds of the Lake Tana basin: Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech. The climate model and hydrological model was used to (i) to evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for study watershed, (ii) to assess the future rainfall and temperature variability and change in the study watershed, and (iii) to examine the impact of climate change on future watershed hydrology. The study used dynamically downscaled climate data for the baseline (2010–2015) and future period (2046–2051) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The climate scenarios were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a 4-km horizontal resolution. A linear scaling method was applied to minimize model biases. The SWAT model was used to estimate the baseline and future hydrology using the bias-corrected climate data. ResultsThe performance of the SWAT model was ‘good’ to ‘very good’ for both the calibration and validation periods, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values between 0.71 to 0.92. The projected changes in rainfall vary with seasons and watershed under both scenarios. On average, annual rainfall may increase by 9.8% and 21.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Minimum temperature may rise by 1.68 °C and 2.26 °C while maximum temperature may increase by 1.65 °C and 2.75 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The changes in climate may cause an increase in surface runoff by 20.9% and 46.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the evapotranspiration increase by 4.7% and 12.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights to implement appropriate water management strategies to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change and variability on the Lake Tana basin, and other regions which have similar agro-ecology.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Variability in Semiarid Palapye, Eastern Botswana: An Assessment from Smallholder Farmers’ Perspective

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicia O. Akinyemi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Change And Variability

Abstract Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability in semiarid contexts. Despite the limited adaptation options often used and the largely subsistence agriculture practiced, studies have shown that smallholders have accumulated local knowledge about changes in climatic conditions. Farmers with field experience and an extensive stay in three sites in Palapye, eastern Botswana, were interviewed. This study related farmers’ perceptions of changes in climate with results from analysis of climate data. Major changes perceived are a reduction in rainfall amount, rising temperature, and increasing frequency of drought conditions. Perceived reduction in rainfall amount is confirmed by analysis results as variability in rainfall amount is high throughout the series. Rainfall was poorly distributed and below average at the beginning of the cropping seasons for four years between 2013 and 2017. For 1990, 2003, and 2012, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was −1.77 (severe drought), −1.37 (moderate drought), and −2.32 (extreme drought), respectively. To minimize impacts on crop production, farmers simultaneously planted different crops based on the perception that climatic impacts on different crops vary and favored crops perceived as drought resistant. Livestock farmers supplemented with livestock feeds, reduced herd size, and moved livestock to areas with better forage. Off-farm incomes from selling products harvested from the wild are important to farmers as a coping strategy, particularly when rain fails. Some female farmers brewed and sold alcohol made locally from sorghum. That local knowledge and perceptions exist and are used by smallholder farmers to adapt to climate change and variability is suggested. Engaging with local knowledge systems is an imperative for climate change policy making.

scholarly journals Implication of climate change and variability on stream flow in Iringa region, Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Msigwa Kassian ◽  
Moses Tenywa ◽  
Emma T. Liwenga ◽  
Kate Wellard Dyer ◽  
Yazidhi Bamutaze
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Change And Variability

This paper investigates the implication of climate change and variability on the river flow within the traditional irrigation farming system, vinyungu, in Iringa region, Tanzania. The study aimed at establishing areas that are most impacted by climate change in terms of river flow and various adaptation strategies. It is based on both primary data collected by questionnaires distributed randomly among 189 farmers and key informant checklists conducted with villages’ leaders and Agriculture Extension Officers. Two focused group discussions were carried out for each village as well as the researcher's own observations, and secondary data includes: literature review, rainfall and river flow data. The long-term annual trends of rainfall and river flow were analyzed via Mann–Kendall's statistical test and linear trend analysis. Climate data on rainfall trend showed a significant decreasing pattern during the last 17 years. Also, river flow data showed a slight decline within the same period. Decrement in river flow, combined with rainfall fluctuation, forced farmers to employ various adaptation strategies. Following the severity of the problem the paper recommends that more research be conducted on proper water management for sustainable river flow for both agriculture production and environmental management.

scholarly journals SUPPORTING AGRICULTURAL INNOVATION IN UGANDA TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE RISK: LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY WITH FARMER PERCEPTIONS

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
HENNY OSBAHR ◽  
PETER DORWARD ◽  
ROGER STERN ◽  
SARAH COOPER
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Agricultural Innovation ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThis paper investigates farmers’ perceptions of climate change and variability in southwest Uganda and compares them with daily rainfall and temperature measurements from the 1960s to the present, including trends in daily rainfall and temperature, seasonality, changing probability of risk and intensity of rainfall events. Statistical analyses and modelling of rainfall and temperature were performed and contrasted with qualitative data collected through a semi-structured questionnaire. The fieldwork showed that farmers perceived regional climate to have changed in the past 20 years. In particular, farmers felt that temperature had increased and seasonality and variability had changed, with the first rainy season between March and May becoming more variable. Farmers reported detailed accounts of climate characteristics during specific years, with recent droughts in the late 1990s and late 2000s confirming local perceptions that there has been a shift in climate towards more variable conditions that are less favourable to production. There is a clear signal that temperature has been increasing in the climate data and, to a lesser extent, evidence that the reliability of rains in the first season has decreased slightly. However, rainfall measurements do not show a downward trend in rainfall amount, a significant shift in the intensity of rainfall events or in the start and end of the rainy seasons. We explore why there are some differences between farmers’ perceptions and the climate data due to different associations of risk between ideal rainfall by farmers, including the amount and distribution needed for production, meteorological definitions of normal rainfall or the long-term statistical mean and its variation, and the impact of higher temperatures. The paper reflects on the methodological approach and considers the implications for communicating information about risk to users in order to support agricultural innovation.

Scientists struggle to access Africa's historical climate data

Nature ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 574 (7780) ◽  
pp. 605-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Nordling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Data ◽  
Historical Climate

DISSEMINATION AND USE OF INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY: A CASE STUDY OF FARMERS IN MALUGA AND CHIBELA VILLAGES IN SEMI-ARID CENTRAL TANZANIA

Mousaion ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Elia ◽  
Stephen Mutula ◽  
Christine Stilwell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Diffusion Of Innovations ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Semi Arid

This study was part of broader PhD research which investigated how access to, and use of, information enhances adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in semi-arid Central Tanzania. The research was carried out in two villages using Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations theory and model to assess the dissemination of this information and its use by farmers in their adaptation of their farming practices to climate change and variability. This predominantly qualitative study employed a post-positivist paradigm. Some elements of a quantitative approach were also deployed in the data collection and analysis. The principal data collection methods were interviews and focus group discussions. The study population comprised farmers, agricultural extension officers and the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa project manager. Qualitative data were subjected to content analysis whereas quantitative data were analysed to generate mostly descriptive statistics using SPSS.  Key findings of the study show that farmers perceive a problem in the dissemination and use of climate information for agricultural development. They found access to agricultural inputs to be expensive, unreliable and untimely. To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and variability on farming effectively, the study recommends the repackaging of current and accurate information on climate change and variability, farmer education and training, and collaboration between researchers, meteorology experts, and extension officers and farmers. Moreover, a clear policy framework for disseminating information related to climate change and variability is required.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document