scholarly journals The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Changes on External Trade Balance in Sudan: Testing J-Curve Hypothesis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (16) ◽  
pp. 3-23
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdu Allah IBRAHIM ◽  
◽  
Mohamed Sharif BASHIR ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Additional Contribution ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Impact

The current research article analyzes the impact of changes in real exchange rate upon external trade balance of Sudan during the period 1978-2017. It employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, impulse response functions and Granger causality test. The empirical findings indicate that exchange rate devaluations have no impact on the merchandize trade balance, thus evidence in favor of the J-curve pattern was not found. Granger causality test runs one-way from trade ratio to real exchange rate and not the other way. Thus, the results can be considered as an additional contribution to evidence stated in literature that focused a vibrant range of economies. These findings are appropriate for policy making in Sudan as well as in various developing countries since the focal point is major trade balance deficit.

scholarly journals Determinants of Agricultural Production and Agricultural Sector Output in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Ewubare Dennis Brown ◽  
◽  
Asimiea Iyabode ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Production Output ◽  
The Impact

The study examined the determinant of agricultural production and agricultural sector output in Nigeria. The objective of the study is to determine the impact of agricultural production determinants on agricultural output. The study was carried out based on secondary data collected through the CBN statistical bulletin unit root test was conducted test and granger causality test were used as the main statistical tests. The findings from the study based on the OLS results shows that agricultural funding, agricultural credit/loan as well as exchange rate have positive relationship with agricultural production output. Also, the granger causality test shows that agricultural funding, agricultural credit loan as well as exchange rate impact on agricultural production output. In view of the findings, it is recommended for adequate budgetary provisions for the agricultural sector in order to provide infrastructural facilities to the rural areas where farm produce are concentrated in order to boost production. Also, provision of credit facilities to the agricultural sector through the farmers in rural areas should be encouraged

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Domestic Investment, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Openness in India: A multi-cointegration analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-184
Author(s):  
Md. Samsur Jaman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the relationships between economic growth, gross domestic investment, real exchange rate and trade openness in Indian Economy using the Johansen –Juselius cointegration test and VEC Granger causality test. The results suggest that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables. All the estimated coefficients of the long-run equation have the correct positive signs and significant at least at the 5 per cent level. Specifically, in the long run, a 1% increase in Gross Domestic Investment (GDI) increases 0.066% in economic growth. Similarly, a 1% increase in trade openness leads to 0.082% increase in economic growth and a 1% increase in real exchange rate leads to 0.26% increase in economic growth. Thus, in the long run, Gross Domestic Investment (GDI), trade openness and real exchange rate have positively impact on economic growth. The results from the VEC Granger causality test suggest that in the short run only economic growth has short run impact on Gross Domestic Investment (GDI). The other variables have no short run impact on each other. Thus, there is a unidirectional causality from economic growth to GDI, but there is no feedback effect.

scholarly journals Nexus between Stock Market Returns and Economic Variables: Evidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanitha Chawla ◽  
Shweta .
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on the Indian stock market. The macroeconomic variables used in the study are interest rate, exchange rate, index of industrial production (IIP) and gold price. BSE Sensex is used as proxy for Indian stock market. We have used the monthly data for all the variables from January 2001 to December 2016. Regression analysis and Granger Causality test is used to establish the relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables. The results show significant impact of only exchange rate on stock returns. All the other variables have shown insignificant impact on the stock market returns. The results of Granger causality test show unidirectional relationship between exchange rate and stock prices and bi-directional relation between IIP and SENSEX.

scholarly journals The impact of international energy price on Romanian macroeconomic

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-105
Author(s):  
Yukun Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Industrial Product ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Large Fluctuation ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe recent decade has witnessed wild swings in International Energy price, and there is no doubt that a large fluctuation in energy prices will have an impact on a country’s macro economy. This study examines the impact of international energy price on Romanian macroeconomic –CPI, exchange rate and industrial product – by using Granger causality test and quantiles regression. We find that the international energy price can affect the CPI and industrial product of Romania, while it can’t influence exchange rate at all. Also when energy price increase and decrease, it will have different impact on Romanian macroeconomic.

scholarly journals The impact of agriculture and renewable energy on climate change in Central and East European Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 447-457
Author(s):  
Nicoleta Mihaela Florea ◽  
Roxana Maria Badircea ◽  
Ramona Costina Pirvu ◽  
Alina Georgiana Manta ◽  
Marius Dalian Doran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
The Impact

According to the objectives of the European Union concerning the climate changes, Member States should take all the necessary measures in order to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this study is to identify the causality relations between greenhouse gases emissions, added value from agriculture, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth based on a panel consisting of 11 states from the Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs) in the period between 2000 and 2017. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used to estimate the long-term relationships among the variables. Also a Granger causality test based on the ARDL – Error Correction Model (ECM) and a Pairwise Granger causality test were used to identify the causality relationship and to detect the direction of causality among the variables. The results obtained reveal, in the long term, two bidirectional relationships between agriculture and economic growth and two unidirectional relationships from agriculture to greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy. In the short term, four unidirectional relationships were found from agriculture to all the variables in the model and one unidirectional relationship from renewable energy to greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

scholarly journals Improving the Resilience of Banking System in Small Open Economy: Is Macroprudential Policy Efficient?

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 07050
Author(s):  
Petra Popek Biskupec ◽  
Suzana Herman
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Real ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Impact

Research background: Although macroprudential instruments increase financial stability, it is necessary to test how they affect the overall economic recovery after a global financial crisis. In the post-crisis period, the real sector needed a strong injection of capital in order to be able to start recovery and to encourage economic growth. At the same time, most of the countries introduced strict regulatory measures that strengthen bank capital and the liquidity base. From the standpoint of the financial sector stability, these measures contributed to the overall financial stability, but at the same time, these measures hold up the bank credit activity. Purpose of the article: This paper analyses the impact of macroprudential instruments on the bank credit activity toward the non-financial sector. The analysis is made by using the Granger Causality Test and the ARLDS Bounds Test. Methods: The research was conducted for the period of 2000 – 2019, based on the data of the Croatian National Bank and the Croatian Bureau of Statistics using logarithmic quarterly data. The analysis is made by using the Granger Causality Test and the ARLDS Bounds Test. Findings & Value added: The results confirm the thesis that additional macroprudential measures decrease the bank credit activity toward the real sector, which slows down the real sector recovery and extends the downturn in the business cycle. On the other hand, the macroprudential measures increase the financial stability of the whole economy, which is positive for future investments and recovery of the real sector.

scholarly journals Exchange rate and Export of Bangladesh: Does Marshall-Lerner condition holds?

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 09-16
Author(s):  
Shovon Roy ◽  
Jonaed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Export is expected to have a favorable impact on GDP growth, and the exchange rate is expected to have a major impact on export and thus export earnings. The relationship between exchange rate and export is a hotly debated topic in macroeconomics, and the goal of this research is to see if the Marshall-Lerner condition holds incase of Bangladesh that is if devaluation of domestic currency increase export earnings. Explanatory variables of the model in the study are the exchange rate, foreign income (WGDP), and domestic income (DGDP). Cointegration approaches; Error Correction model, Granger Causality test are used in this study to estimate the long and short-run impacts. With time series data from 1973Q3 to 2018Q2, we used the Error Correction Model and the Granger Causality Test. The findings of VECM support short-run exchange rate and export adjustments. The bidirectional causality between exchange rate and export is established using the Granger causality test.

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