scholarly journals IDENTIFIED OF TOBACCO INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IN EAST JAVA: ERROR CORRECTION MODEL APPROACH AND THE TRIPLED LAYER BUSINESS CANVAS MODEL APPLICATION

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
M Silahul Mu'min ◽  
Yoga Pury Anggara ◽  
Reza Bagas Maulana
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Tobacco Industry ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Industry Development ◽  
Central Statistics

The agricultural sector is one of the main sectors in the Indonesian economy in addition to the industrial sector and the trade sector. In addition to the purpose of meeting the basic needs of the community, the agricultural sector also contributes to the Indonesian economic structure. In 2018, BPS (Central Statistics Agency) noted that the agricultural sector contributes 14% to GDP (Gross Domestic Product). East Java Province has enormous potential for the development of the agricultural sector today. Agriculture is still a leading sector for the economy of East Java in the digital era as it is today. Tobacco is one of the agricultural derivatives commodities that have an important contribution in the economy. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) from 2010-2016, there are four regions with large tobacco production in East Java, namely Jember, Probolinggo, Situbondo and Bojonegoro, which account for 2.01% of Java's Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) East in 2016 with a gross added value of Rp. 27,321 billion. Business competition in the current digital economy era requires industry to be able to try to increase production capacity in the face of competition with similar industries. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that influence the development of the tobacco industry both in the short and long term and provide recommendations for sustainable and competitive tobacco industry development policies. This study uses the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM) method and the preparation of industrial development recommendations based on the Triple Layered Business Model Canvas (TLBMC). The results showed that the level of GRDP and land productivity were the main factors influencing the development of the tobaccoindustries and canvas in TLBMC capable of being the basis for supporting the development of the tobacco industry that is more holistic in the orientation of sustainable innovation business by considering three perspectives namely economic, environmental, and social impacts.

scholarly journals Spatial Redistributions of Regional Economic Activity in Central Java (Direct Error Correction Model Causality Approach)

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jihad Lukis Panjawa ◽  
Bhimo Rizky Samudro
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Spatial Inequality ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Regional Autonomy ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Observation Period

This study analyzes spatial inequality through a causal relationship between inequality and economic growth within-recidency, between-recidency and overall in Central Java.The analytical tool used is the Direct Error Correction Model causality. This study shows that spatial concentrations throughout the observation period are quite high. In the 2001-2008 period there was an increasing tendency for spatialconcentration, reflecting the decline in the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) share of districts and cities in Central Java. We also obtained similar findings in a number of regions both within and between-recidency. Post-2008, spatial concentration tends to decrease, indicating the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product share. Other findings indicate a one-way relationship shown economic growth towards inequality. Another important contribution is that economic growth in inequality only occurs in the long term. Thus there has been convergence because of the increase ineconomic growth which is able to reduce inequality in all areas of Central Java, including within and between-recidency. This proves that during the implementation of regional autonomy there is a spread effect greater than the backwash effect in Central Java, including within and between-recidency.

scholarly journals Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lya Aklimawati ◽  
Teguh Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Determinants

High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1)  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2) analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables  on cocoa prices.  This research  was  carried out by  analyzing  annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM)  approach was  used  to  estimate the  econometric  model  of  cocoa  price.The  estimation  results  indicated  that  cocoa  price  was  significantly  affected  by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product,  world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1),  while other  variables  were  inelastic  (E  <1).  Variables  that  affecting  cocoa  pricesin  short  run  equilibrium  were  exchange  rate  IDR-USD,  world  gross  domestic product,  world  inflation,  world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock. The  analysis  results  showed  that  world  gross  domestic  product,  world  cocoa consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1)  to  cocoa  prices  in short-term.  Whereas,  the  response  of  cocoa  prices  was  inelastic  to  change  of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price determinants, cocoa, Error Correction Model, demand, supply, stock

scholarly journals Analisis Kredit UMKM di Provinsi Aceh: Analisis Empiris Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Hamdani Hamdani ◽  
Ismail Ismail ◽  
Thasrif Murhadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Aceh Province

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of regional gross domestic product, non-performing loans, and loan interest rates on credit absorption by SMEs in Aceh province in the long term. The data used is secondary data in the form of a quarter 1st quarter 1995 to third quarter 2015. The model used in this study is a model of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to find out the results of short-term estimates, and using Johansen cointegration test to determine the relationship long-term between variables. The data used in this study has been tested with Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) to determine the stationary data. Based on this study it was found that in the long term there is a cointegration relationship between the variables studied. In the short term, the variables affecting the gross regional domestic product and has a one-way relationship with SME loans while variable interest rates have a causal relationship with SME loans in Aceh province, while the NPL variable does not have a causal relationship with SME loans. Keywords: SME Loans, Gross Domestic Product, Non Performimg Loan, Interest Rates, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).

scholarly journals Determinan Ekspor Di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-317
Author(s):  
Fanny Septina
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Us Dollar

ABSTRACTThis study aims to explore macroeconomic factors that affect non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia. The research data are non-oil and gas export data, Gross Domestic Product, inflation, US dollar exchange rate, foreign direct investment in the 2010-2019 period published by Bank Indonesia statistics. The research method uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis with the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) stationary test, Johansen's cointegration test, Granger causality test, Error Correction Model. The results showed there was a cointegration relationship between all dependent and independent variables, a direct relationship with the US dollar exchange rate and inflation on Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Product on exports. In the short term Gross Domestic Product, inflation, exchange rates, and foreign direct investment have no significant effect on non-oil and gas exports. In the long run, Gross Domestic Product has a significant effect on non-oil and gas exports.Keywords: non-oil export, macroeconomy, cointegration, causality, error correction model

scholarly journals Cointegration Analysis and Forecasting of the Export Function of Bangladesh Using the Error Correction Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K M Saemon Islam ◽  
Gautam Kumar Biswas
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
The United States ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this paper, we examined the relationship between the growth of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States, the export value index, and the export of Bangladesh over 37 years between 1980 and 2016. The results of our preliminary tests showed that there was indeed a long-run relationship between these variables. Based on our preliminary analysis, we employed an error-correction model to identify the relationship between the variables. The error-correction term with the expected negative sign was statistically significant, and it confirmed that in the case of disequilibrium, the convergence towards the equilibrium happened in the subsequent periods. Additionally, the econometric estimates exhibited that the two-period lagged values of the growth in export of Bangladesh and the growth of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States were also statistically significant.JEL Classification: C22, C5, F41

scholarly journals Kontribusi Pasar Saham Syariah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 78-86
Author(s):  
Binti Shofiatul Jannah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
National Income ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model

Contribution of the Islamic Stock Market to Indonesia's Economic Growth. This study aims to investigate the contribution of the development of the Islamic stock market to Indonesia's economic growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all goods and services produced by a country in a certain period. GDP is one method for calculating national income. The Islamic stock index used is the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) which has long standing. Therefore, the research sample consists of the JII (Jakarta Islamic Indexs) and GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The research period is approximately 16 years of observation ranging from 2000 to 2016. Data was obtained from publications on the IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) website, OJK (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan) and BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik). Some tests such as the root unit test, cointegration test and Error Correction Model are used to test data. The statistical test tool used was Eviews 9. The Error Correction Model results show that the Islamic stockl market does not affect long-term economic growth.  

Pengaruh Jangka Pendek Dan Jangka Panjang Variabel Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Ihsg Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Dengan Pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM)

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-24
Author(s):  
Suryo Refli Ranto
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji secara empiris pengaruh jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dari Inflasi, Jumlah Uang Berjalan, Kurs, Tingkat Bunga Bank Indonesia, Harga Minyak Dunia (WTI) dan Net Ekspor terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dengan metode Error Correction Model (ECM) yang diolah dengan eviews 6.0. Selama periode pengamatan yaitu tahun 2000-2012 terjadi hubungan antara variabel makro dengan pergerakan IHSG di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Hasil uji ECM memperlihatkan Inflasi, kurs dan harga minyak dunia berpengaruh signifakan terhadap IHSG pada jangka pendek sedangkan pada jangka panjang variabel yang signifikan mempengaruhi IHSG adalah IHK, kurs, net ekspor dan harga minyak dunia.Kata kunci : IHSG, IHK, JUB, Kurs, tingkat Bunga Bank Indonesia (rSBI), Harga Minyak Dunia (WTI), Net Ekspor dan Error Correction Model (ECM) 

Corporate Taxes and Foreign Direct Investment: An Impact Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-43
Author(s):  
Onome Christopher Edo ◽  
Anthony Okafor ◽  
Akhigbodemhe Emmanuel Justice
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Corporate Taxes ◽  
Correction Model

Objective – The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of corporate taxes on the flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigeria between 1983 and 2017. Methodology/Technique – This study adopts an ex-post facto research design. Secondary data was sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator, the Central Bank of Nigeria database, and the Federal Inland Revenue database. The research data was analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM). Findings – The coefficient of determination (R2) shows that approximately 77% of systematic changes in FDI are attributed to the combined effect of all of the explanatory variables used in this study. Specifically, the study concludes that Company Income Tax, Value Added Tax, and Custom and Excise Duties have a significant but negative relationship with FDI. In contrast, Tertiary Education Tax has a positive association with FDI. Further, Exchange Rate has a negative but significant relationship with FDI, Inflation had an insignificant but positive association with FDI, and GDP growth Rate and Trade Openness demonstrate a positive and significant association with FDI. Novelty – The findings of this study are distinguishable from previous studies, as it uncovers new evidence that higher Education Tax Rates influences FDI and emerging evidence on the effect of non-tax variables on FDI inflow. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: E22, F21, H2, P33. Keywords: Corporate Taxes; Foreign Direct Investment; Error Correction Model; Nigeria; Non-Tax Variables. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Edo, O.C; Okafor, A; Justice, A.E. 2020. Corporate Taxes and Foreign Direct Investment: An Impact Analysis, Acc. Fin. Review 5 (2): 28 – 43. https://doi.org/10.35609/afr.2020.5.2(1)

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