Identification of Factors Influencing Injury Severity Prediction (ISP) in Real World Accident Based on NASS-CDS

Unsafe driving behaviors, driver limitations, and conditions that lead to a crash are usually referred to as driver errors. Even though driver errors are widely cited as a critical reason for crash occurrence in crash reports and safety literature, the discussion on their consequences is limited. This study aims to quantify the effect of driver errors on crash injury severity. To assist this investigation, driver errors were categorized as sequential events in a driving task. Possible combinations of driver error categories were created and ranked based on statistical dependences between error combinations and injury severity levels. Binary logit models were then developed to show that typical variables used to model injury severity such as driver characteristics, roadway characteristics, environmental factors, and crash characteristics are inadequate to explain driver errors, especially the complicated ones. Next, ordinal probit models were applied to quantify the effect of driver errors on injury severity for rural crashes. Superior model performance is observed when driver error combinations were modeled along with typical crash variables to predict the injury outcome. Modeling results also illustrate that more severe crashes tend to occur when the driver makes multiple mistakes. Therefore, incorporating driver errors in crash injury severity prediction not only improves prediction accuracy but also enhances our understanding of what error(s) may lead to more severe injuries so that safety interventions can be recommended accordingly.

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Crash Telemetry-Based Injury Severity Prediction is Equivalent to or Out-Performs Field Protocols in Triage of Planar Vehicle Collisions

Prehospital and Disaster Medicine ◽

10.1017/s1049023x19004515 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 34 (04) ◽

pp. 356-362 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Katherine He ◽

Peng Zhang ◽

Stewart C. Wang

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Injury Severity ◽

Motor Vehicle ◽

Principal Direction ◽

Trauma Centers ◽

Sampling System ◽

Vehicle Collisions ◽

Field Triage ◽

Severity Prediction ◽

Patients At Risk

AbstractIntroduction:With the increasing availability of vehicle telemetry technology, there is great potential for Advanced Automatic Collision Notification (AACN) systems to improve trauma outcomes by detecting patients at-risk for severe injury and facilitating early transport to trauma centers.Methods:National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) data from 1999-2013 were used to construct a logistic regression model (injury severity prediction [ISP] model) predicting the probability that one or more occupants in planar, non-rollover motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) would have Injury Severity Score (ISS) 15+ injuries. Variables included principal direction of force (PDOF), change in velocity (Delta-V), multiple impacts, presence of any older occupant (≥55 years old), presence of any female occupant, presence of right-sided passenger, belt use, and vehicle type. The model was validated using medical records and 2008-2011 crash data from AACN-enabled Michigan (USA) vehicles identified from OnStar (OnStar Corporation; General Motors; Detroit, Michigan USA) records. To compare the ISP to previously established protocols, a literature search was performed to determine the sensitivity and specificity of first responder identification of ISS 15+ for MVC occupants.Results:The study population included 924 occupants in 836 crash events. The ISP model had a sensitivity of 72.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 41%-91%) and specificity of 93% (95% CI 92%-95%) for identifying ISS 15+ occupants injured in planar MVCs. The current standard 2006 Field Triage Decision Scheme (FTDS) was 56%-66% sensitive and 75%-88% specific in identifying ISS 15+ patients.Conclusions:The ISP algorithm comparably is more sensitive and more specific than current field triage in identifying MVC patients at-risk for ISS 15+ injuries. This real-world field study shows telemetry data transmitted before dispatch of emergency medical systems can be helpful to quickly identify patients who require urgent transfer to trauma centers.

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Factors influencing the injury severity of single-bicycle crashes

Accident Analysis & Prevention ◽

10.1016/j.aap.2020.105875 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 149 ◽

pp. 105875

Author(s):

Marcus Skyum Myhrmann ◽

Kira Hyldekær Janstrup ◽

Mette Møller ◽

Stefan Eriksen Mabit

Keyword(s):

Injury Severity ◽

Factors Influencing

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Exploring Factors Influencing Injury Severity of Vehicle At-Fault Accidents: A Comparative Analysis of Passenger and Freight Vehicles

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17041146 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 1146 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jianyu Wang ◽

Huapu Lu ◽

Zhiyuan Sun ◽

Tianshi Wang

Keyword(s):

Influencing Factors ◽

Traffic Accidents ◽

Injury Severity ◽

Vehicle Accidents ◽

Passenger Vehicles ◽

Factors Influencing ◽

Administrative Division ◽

Hit And Run ◽

Side Collision ◽

Freight Vehicles

The objective of this study is to find factors influencing the injury severity of vehicle at-fault accidents in Shenyang (China), and discuss the commonalities and differences between passenger and freight vehicle accidents. We analyzed 1647 traffic accidents from 2015 to 2017, in which motor vehicles were fully or mainly responsible, including 1164 traffic accidents caused by passenger vehicles and 483 traffic accidents caused by freight vehicles. Twenty influencing factors from the aspects of accident, driver, time, space and environmental attributes are analyzed to find their statistical connection with injury severity using the binary logistic regression model. For passenger vehicles, five influencing factors (side collision; illegal act while driving; hit-and-run; season and administrative division), showed statistically significant correlations with the injury severity. For freight vehicles, three influencing factors (illegal act while driving; season and administrative division), showed statistically significant correlations with the injury severity. Illegal act while driving is the only common influencing factor for the injury severity of both passenger and freight vehicle accidents. Side collision and hit-and-run are significant influencing factors for the injury severity of passenger vehicle accidents, but not for freight vehicle accidents. Season and administrative division present different results on influencing passenger and freight vehicle accidents. Based on these results, measures including driver education and road infrastructure improvement could be implemented to reduce the injury severity of accidents in passenger and freight vehicles.

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Study on Crash Injury Severity Prediction of Autonomous Vehicles for Different Emergency Decisions Based on Support Vector Machine Model

Electronics ◽

10.3390/electronics7120381 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (12) ◽

pp. 381 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Yaping Liao ◽

Junyou Zhang ◽

Shufeng Wang ◽

Sixian Li ◽

Jian Han

Keyword(s):

Support Vector Machine ◽

Autonomous Vehicles ◽

Injury Severity ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Motor Vehicle ◽

Support Vector ◽

Severity Prediction ◽

Emergency Decision ◽

The Impact ◽

Crash Injury Severity

Motor vehicle crashes remain a leading cause of life and property loss to society. Autonomous vehicles can mitigate the losses by making appropriate emergency decision, and the crash injury severity prediction model is the basis for autonomous vehicles to make decisions in emergency situations. In this paper, based on the support vector machine (SVM) model and NASS/GES crash data, three SVM crash injury severity prediction models (B-SVM, T-SVM, and BT-SVM) corresponding to braking, turning, and braking + turning respectively are established. The vehicle relative speed (REL_SPEED) and the gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) are introduced into the impact indicators of the prediction models. Secondly, the ordered logit (OL) and back propagation neural network (BPNN) models are established to validate the accuracy of the SVM models. The results show that the SVM models have the best performance than the other two. Next, the impact of REL_SPEED and GVWR on injury severity is analyzed quantitatively by the sensitivity analysis, the results demonstrate that the increase of REL_SPEED and GVWR will make vehicle crash more serious. Finally, the same crash samples under normal road and environmental conditions are input into B-SVM, T-SVM, and BT-SVM respectively, the output results are compared and analyzed. The results show that with other conditions being the same, as the REL_SPEED increased from the low (0–20 mph) to middle (20–45 mph) and then to the high range (45–75 mph), the best emergency decision with the minimum crash injury severity will gradually transition from braking to turning and then to braking + turning.

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