Long-Term Forecasting of World Economy

Author(s):  
Y. Lukashin ◽  
L. Rakhlina

The paper considers contemporary approaches of long-term forecasting of world and national economics. Foreign practice is of especial interest of authors. Researches and results of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Goldman Sachs are exposed in details. Authors make the following conclusions: a production function model is used often to generate forecasts. The parameters of these models are postulated by experts in coincidence with their scenario of World development. Main indicators to forecast are GDP, GDP per capita and changes in country ranks. Authors consider GDP as not ideal indicator for the goal since it may be calculated by three methods. Besides, it has different structure and quality in different countries. Authors point to the need for estimation and comparison of quality of life. They suggest to take into account the revolutionary changing in technologies and to schedule the optimum and the most realistic path to improve the quality of life. Authors suggest that the most developed countries are entering a new era when robots will work more and more instead of people in industry, agriculture, and services. Many operations in control, management and data processing gain higher productivity due to endless progress in computer science. As a result authors foresee further shortening of the working week. On their opinion this is the way which leads to real success in struggle against unemployment. ICT technologies enable many employees to work now at home. Growing of spare time leads to new pattern of life, new possibilities of education, new types of creative work, new possibilities of communication, additional possibilities for health care, high level of life quality. So far, comparison of national economy development on the basis of measuring GDP seems to become obsolete and irrelevant to current social and economic conditions. Now we can expect to see negative rates of GDP growth and augmentation of life quality. Thus, to construct the countries’ ranks in world competition correctly it is of great importance to take into account the social factors and the role of innovation technologies in world economic development.

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serdal Albayrak ◽  
Sait Ozturk ◽  
Emre Durdag ◽  
Ömer Ayden

ABSTRACT Background: Aim of this paper is to recall the surgical technique used in the recurrent lumbar disc herniations (LDHs) and to share our experiences. Materials and Methods: Out of series of 1115 patients who underwent operations for LDH between 2006 and 2013, 70 patients underwent re-operations, which were included in this study. During surgery, lateral decompression performed over the medial facet joint to the superior facet joint border was seen after widening the laminectomy defect, and microdiscectomy was performed. The demographic findings of the patients, their complaints in admission to hospital, the level of operation, the condition of dural injury, the first admission in the prospective analysis, and their quality of life were evaluated through the Oswestry scoring during their postoperative 1st, 3rd, 6th-month and 1st, 3rd, 5th and 7th-year follow-up. In the statical analysis, Friedman test was performed for the comparison of the Oswestry scores and Siegel Castellan test was used for the paired nonparametrical data. A P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Considering the Oswestry Index during the follow-ups, the values in the postoperative early period and follow-ups were seen to be significantly lower than those at the time of admission to hospital (P < 0.05). None of the patients, who re-operated by microdiscectomy, presented with iatrogenic instability in 7 years follow-up period. Conclusion: Microdiscectomy performed through a proper technique in the re-operation of recurrent disc herniations eases complaints and improves the quality of life. Long-term follow-ups are required for more accurate results.


Author(s):  
Brian O'Mahony ◽  
Gerard Dolan ◽  
Diane Nugent ◽  
Clifford Goodman

INTRODUCTION:Hemophilia is a rare, inherited bleeding disorder affecting an estimated 400,000 people worldwide (1). Characterized by spontaneous bleeding and long-term, irreversible joint damage, persons with hemophilia are often limited in normal day-to-day activities, including work/school, and require comprehensive care at specialized treatment centers. With replacement therapies extending survival by decades and vastly improving quality of life (QoL), routine prophylaxis is considered the standard-of-care in developed countries. However, due to the cost of replacement factor, access to treatment remains a challenge, and increased scrutiny over funding has been augmented by growing demands on healthcare budgets (2). Thus, the hemophilia community shares a unified goal of objectively defining patient-centered value in hemophilia care.METHODS:Using a three-tiered outcomes hierarchy model initially described by Porter (3), an international, multidisciplinary panel of health economics outcomes researchers and hemophilia experts developed a value framework for decision makers to assess value of various healthcare interventions in hemophilia.RESULTS:The three tiers for assessing value are: (i) Health status achieved/retained; (ii) Process of recovery; and (iii) Sustainability of health. Tier one measures survival, quality of life (QoL), and hemophilia-specific outcomes of bleeding frequency, musculoskeletal complications, and severe bleeds, as well as function/activity (that is, lifestyle impairment). Tier two measures time to initial treatment or recovery and time missed at education/work, as well as disutility of care (that is, inhibitor development, pathogen transmission/infections, orthopedic intervention, and venous access). Tier three measures avoidance of bleeds, maintenance of productive lives, and long-term health, while capturing long-term consequences of insufficient therapy or age-related complications. Applicability of the framework can be demonstrated in areas of healthcare delivery, treatment regimen, and innovation for new therapies.CONCLUSIONS:This value framework represents an initial collaboration with stakeholders to define and organize an array of patient-centric outcomes of importance in hemophilia into a practical tool that can influence treatment and funding decisions in hemophilia care.


2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (2_suppl) ◽  
pp. 20-25
Author(s):  
Alan Menter

Patients with psoriasis may experience impaired psychosocial mental status regardless of their objectively defined disease severity. The objective clinical measures of disease that are commonly used to evaluate a patient's psoriasis fail to take into account the effect of psoriasis on patients' quality of life (QOL). As a result, a significant number of patients are dissatisfied with conventional treatments and are searching for new options. A high unmet need for effective and safe long-term therapies that can also improve patients' QOL exists in psoriasis. Alefacept, a selective biologic agent specifically designed for the treatment of psoriasis, provides improvement in both the physical (as measured by the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index) and mental (as measured by the Dermatology Life Quality Index) aspects of the disease. Additionally, alefacept is extremely well tolerated, with no negative effect on QOL, and the improvement in QOL is maintained off-treatment, which is consistent with its remittive effects on the disease. Alefacept helps fulfill the needs of psoriasis patients by providing efficacy, safety, off-treatment remissions, and improvement in QOL.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyudmila Sizova

BACKGROUND The research interest is the study of the quality of life of patients with rheumatoid arthritis of different duration. OBJECTIVE The aim of study was to compare the quality of life in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) against patients with long-term RA. METHODS The study included 164 participants: 114 outpatients with early RA, and 50 outpatients with long-term RA. Assessment of life quality in patients with RA detected impaired parameters of the HAQ, SF-36, QOL-RA Scale already during the first year of the disease. RESULTS The HAQ test found a comparable frequency of severe functional disorders in patients with early and long-term RA. According to the SF-36 questionnaire, patients with early RA suffered from physical pain than patients with long-term RA. The QOL-RA Scale demonstrated that patients in the early stages of the disease, the lowest scores for the "arthritis" and "joint pain", and participants with long-term RA for "health" also. CONCLUSIONS Results indicated that these questionnaires may be used for scientific purposes to identify the most susceptible parameters of the quality of life and to provide benefits for monitoring health status and correct choice of drugs. CLINICALTRIAL The Scientific Council of the Orenburg State Medical Academy (currently the University) approved research in 2005 year (Protocol No. 5). All patients gave their written consent to participate in the scientific study.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Gotta ◽  
Stefan Bielack ◽  
Stefanie Hecker-Nolting ◽  
Benjamin Sorg ◽  
Matthias Kevric ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Increasing numbers of patients surviving malignant bone tumors around the knee joint have led to an increasing importance to investigate long-term results. This study assessed the long-term results of rotationplasty after resection of malignant bone tumors regarding functional outcome and quality of life to allow better comparison with other treatment options in bone cancer treatment. Procedure 60 participants who underwent rotationplasty due to bone cancer took part in this multicentric questionnaire-based study. The long-term functional outcome was measured by the Musculoskeletal tumor society score (MSTS) and the Tegner activity level scale. The health-related quality of life (HRQL) was assessed by using the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36). Results Patients treated with rotationplasty (median follow-up of 22 years, range 10–47 years) regained a high level of activity (median MSTS score of 24). Even a return to high level sports was possible (mean Tegner activity level scale of 4). Duration of follow-up did not influence the functional outcome. HRQL scores were comparable to the general German population. Concerns of psychological problems due to the unusual appearance of the rotated foot have not been confirmed. Conclusion Rotationplasty can be a good alternative to endoprosthetic replacement or amputation, either as primary surgery or as a salvage procedure. Especially for growing children and very active patients rotationplasty should be considered.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ilias Papadimitriou ◽  
Katerina Bakirtzi ◽  
Alexander Katoulis ◽  
Dimitrios Ioannides

Scalp-localized psoriasis is common among patients affected with plaque psoriasis, rendering its treatment exceedingly difficult. Furthermore, the symptoms caused by the disease like scaling, erythema, and pruritus, among others, pose a major psychological impact and a significant regression in the quality of life of the affected patients. Biologics have proved their efficacy in assuaging the symptoms, in terms of Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) reduction, and offering optimum quality of life, by decreasing the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) in the patients suffering from plaque psoriasis. Herein, we sought to evaluate the efficacy of biologics and small molecules in controlling the symptoms and their ability to offer long-term maintenance in the disease activity.


2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 489-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Mellerio ◽  
S. Guilmin-Crépon ◽  
P. Jacquin ◽  
M. Labéguerie ◽  
C. Lévy-Marchal ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 719-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessia Villani ◽  
Matteo Megna ◽  
Gabriella Fabbrocini ◽  
Milena Cappello ◽  
Maria Antonietta Luciano ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Dana Erickson ◽  
Diane Donegan

Advances in the treatment of brain tumors have led to an increase in the number of survivors of this disease. Consequently, the long-term complications associated with past and current treatments are becoming more apparent. Of relevance to patients who receive treatment of brain tumors are the potential neuroendocrine complications that develop either acutely or several years following treatment. Presentation may differ between adults and children (e.g., short stature or adult growth hormone deficiency) but in both settings can complicate treatment and impact quality of life. The risk for the development of these complications depends on the location of the tumor (proximity to the pituitary/hypothalamus) and/or the treatment delivered (chemotherapy/surgery/radiation). Given the potential overlap in symptoms attributable to the underlying brain tumor and neuroendocrine dysfunction, a high level of suspicion, appropriate investigation, and administration of treatment may reduce morbidity and mortality for patients with brain tumors experiencing neuroendocrine dysfunction.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
William N Malatestinic ◽  

Introduction: Psoriasis is a chronic immune-mediated inflammatory skin condition that has a significant negative impact on the physical, emotional, and psychosocial well-being of those affected. This study aimed to assess the speed of onset and long-term clinical and quality of life (QOL) outcomes among Ixekizumab (IXE) treated plaque psoriasis patients. Method: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a single US dermatology referral center. Medical charts were reviewed for adult psoriasis patients starting IXE (index date) between March 22, 2016, and February 28, 2018.Disease severity and QOL data were collected up to one-year pre-IXE initiation and up to 35 months post-IXE initiation. Static Physician Global Assessment (sPGA), Body Surface Area (BSA), and Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) were summarized at 1-month post-index and at 3-month intervals. Logistic regressions were performed to evaluate the 1-month response in relation to long-term sPGA, BSA, and DLQI outcomes. Results: A total of 153 patients (median age at index: 47.7 years; 65.4% male; 93.5% Caucasian) were included in the study. Majority of patients (69%; n=106) were biologic-experienced prior to IXE initiation. At 1-month post-index 58.8% of patients achieved sPGA (0,1), 55.9% achieved DLQI (0,1), and 66.9% achieved BSA≤1%. Patients with sPGA (0,1) at 1-month post-index had greater odds of remaining sPGA (0,1) and BSA≤1% at 24-month (sPGA 0,1: OR=10.1; 95% CI: 2.1-47.9; BSA≤1%: OR=13.3; 95% CI: 2.2-80.2). Among patients who achieved sPGA (0,1) at 1-month post-index, the observed proportion of patients with sPGA (0,1), DLQI (0,1), and BSA≤1% remained largely the same for the 24-month follow-up. Conclusion: This real-world study demonstrated that the majority of patients initiating IXE achieved sPGA (0, 1), DLQI (0, 1) and BSA ≤1% targets within the first month of treatment and were able to maintain treatment response for up to 24 months independent of prior biologic exposure.


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