scholarly journals Comparison of Stochastic and Machine Learning Methods for Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting of Hydrological Processes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgia Papacharalampous ◽  
Hristos Tyralis ◽  
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Discharge Time ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Stationary Stochastic Processes ◽  
The Subject ◽  
First Time

Research within the field of hydrology often focuses on comparing stochastic to machine learning (ML) forecasting methods. The comparisons performed are all based on case studies, while an extensive study aiming to provide generalized results on the subject is missing. Herein, we compare 11 stochastic and 9 ML methods regarding their multi-step ahead forecasting properties by conducting 12 large-scale computational experiments based on simulations. Each of these experiments uses 2 000 time series generated by linear stationary stochastic processes. We conduct each simulation experiment twice; the first time using time series of 100 values and the second time using time series of 300 values. Additionally, we conduct a real-world experiment using 405 mean annual river discharge time series of 100 values. We quantify the performance of the methods using 18 metrics. The results indicate that stochastic and ML methods perform equally well.

scholarly journals Comparison of Stochastic and Machine Learning Methods for Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting of Hydrological Processes

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgia Papacharalampous ◽  
Hristos Tyralis ◽  
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Discharge Time ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Stationary Stochastic Processes ◽  
The Subject ◽  
First Time

Research within the field of hydrology often focuses on comparing stochastic to machine learning (ML) forecasting methods. The comparisons performed are all based on case studies, while an extensive study aiming to provide generalized results on the subject is missing. Herein, we compare 11 stochastic and 9 ML methods regarding their multi-step ahead forecasting properties by conducting 12 large-scale computational experiments based on simulations. Each of these experiments uses 2 000 time series generated by linear stationary stochastic processes. We conduct each simulation experiment twice; the first time using time series of 100 values and the second time using time series of 300 values. Additionally, we conduct a real-world experiment using 405 mean annual river discharge time series of 100 values. We quantify the performance of the methods using 18 metrics. The results indicate that stochastic and ML methods perform equally well.

scholarly journals Comparison of Stochastic and Machine Learning Methods for Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting of Hydrological Processes

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgia A. Papacharalampous ◽  
Hristos Tyralis ◽  
Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Real World ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Stationary Stochastic Processes ◽  
First Time

We perform an extensive comparison between 11 stochastic to 9 machine learning methods regarding their multi-step ahead forecasting properties by conducting 12 large-scale computational experiments. Each of these experiments uses 2 000 time series generated by linear stationary stochastic processes. We conduct each simulation experiment twice; the first time using time series of 110 values and the second time using time series of 310 values. Additionally, we conduct 92 real-world case studies using mean monthly time series of streamflow and particularly focus on one of them to reinforce the findings and highlight important facts. We quantify the performance of the methods using 18 metrics. The results indicate that the machine learning methods do not differ dramatically from the stochastic, while none of the methods under comparison is uniformly better or worse than the rest. However, there are methods that are regularly better or worse than others according to specific metrics.

scholarly journals Identifying Spatiotemporal Patterns in Land Use and Cover Samples from Satellite Image Time Series

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 974
Author(s):  
Lorena Alves Santos ◽  
Karine Ferreira ◽  
Michelle Picoli ◽  
Gilberto Camara ◽  
Raul Zurita-Milla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Spatiotemporal Patterns ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Land Use And Cover

The use of satellite image time series analysis and machine learning methods brings new opportunities and challenges for land use and cover changes (LUCC) mapping over large areas. One of these challenges is the need for samples that properly represent the high variability of land used and cover classes over large areas to train supervised machine learning methods and to produce accurate LUCC maps. This paper addresses this challenge and presents a method to identify spatiotemporal patterns in land use and cover samples to infer subclasses through the phenological and spectral information provided by satellite image time series. The proposed method uses self-organizing maps (SOMs) to reduce the data dimensionality creating primary clusters. From these primary clusters, it uses hierarchical clustering to create subclusters that recognize intra-class variability intrinsic to different regions and periods, mainly in large areas and multiple years. To show how the method works, we use MODIS image time series associated to samples of cropland and pasture classes over the Cerrado biome in Brazil. The results prove that the proposed method is suitable for identifying spatiotemporal patterns in land use and cover samples that can be used to infer subclasses, mainly for crop-types.

scholarly journals Domain Adaptation Using a Three-Way Decision Improves the Identification of Autism Patients from Multisite fMRI Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 603
Author(s):  
Chunlei Shi ◽  
Xianwei Xin ◽  
Jiacai Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Domain Adaptation ◽  
Recognition Accuracy ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Fmri Data ◽  
Target Domain ◽  
Sample Distribution ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
First Time

Machine learning methods are widely used in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis. Due to the lack of labelled ASD data, multisite data are often pooled together to expand the sample size. However, the heterogeneity that exists among different sites leads to the degeneration of machine learning models. Herein, the three-way decision theory was introduced into unsupervised domain adaptation in the first time, and applied to optimize the pseudolabel of the target domain/site from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) features related to ASD patients. The experimental results using multisite fMRI data show that our method not only narrows the gap of the sample distribution among domains but is also superior to the state-of-the-art domain adaptation methods in ASD recognition. Specifically, the ASD recognition accuracy of the proposed method is improved on all the six tasks, by 70.80%, 75.41%, 69.91%, 72.13%, 71.01% and 68.85%, respectively, compared with the existing methods.

Offshore Claims and Problems in the North Sea

1965 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 505-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Young
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Geneva Convention ◽  
Legal Principles ◽  
The North ◽  
Legal Problems ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Subject ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Considerations

The possible presence of very large petroleum and natural gas reserves in the area beneath the North Sea is currently the subject of intense investigation. If confirmed, as seems likely in at least some localities, this occurrence will raise legal problems of considerable interest and complexity. For the North Sea is not merely an oilfield covered by water: for centuries it has been one of the world's major fishery regions and the avenue to and from the world's busiest seaports. Thus all three of the present principal uses of the sea—fishing, navigation, and the exploitation of submarine resources—promise to meet for the first time on a large scale in an area where all are of major importance. The process of reconciling the various interests at stake will provide the first thoroughgoing test of the adequacy and acceptability of the general principles laid down in the 1958 Geneva Convention on the Continental Shelf and should add greatly to the practice and precedents available in this developing branch of the law. In the present article an attempt is made to review some of the geographical and economic considerations involved in the North Sea situation, to note some of the technical and legal developments that have already taken place, and to consider these elements in the light of the various interests and legal principles concerned.

Machine-Learning for the Prediction of Lost Circulation Events - Time Series Analysis and Model Evaluation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arturo Magana-Mora ◽  
Mohammad AlJubran ◽  
Jothibasu Ramasamy ◽  
Mohammed AlBassam ◽  
Chinthaka Gooneratne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Drilling Fluid ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
Lost Circulation

Abstract Objective/Scope. Lost circulation events (LCEs) are among the top causes for drilling nonproductive time (NPT). The presence of natural fractures and vugular formations causes loss of drilling fluid circulation. Drilling depleted zones with incorrect mud weights can also lead to drilling induced losses. LCEs can also develop into additional drilling hazards, such as stuck pipe incidents, kicks, and blowouts. An LCE is traditionally diagnosed only when there is a reduction in mud volume in mud pits in the case of moderate losses or reduction of mud column in the annulus in total losses. Using machine learning (ML) for predicting the presence of a loss zone and the estimation of fracture parameters ahead is very beneficial as it can immediately alert the drilling crew in order for them to take the required actions to mitigate or cure LCEs. Methods, Procedures, Process. Although different computational methods have been proposed for the prediction of LCEs, there is a need to further improve the models and reduce the number of false alarms. Robust and generalizable ML models require a sufficiently large amount of data that captures the different parameters and scenarios representing an LCE. For this, we derived a framework that automatically searches through historical data, locates LCEs, and extracts the surface drilling and rheology parameters surrounding such events. Results, Observations, and Conclusions. We derived different ML models utilizing various algorithms and evaluated them using the data-split technique at the level of wells to find the most suitable model for the prediction of an LCE. From the model comparison, random forest classifier achieved the best results and successfully predicted LCEs before they occurred. The developed LCE model is designed to be implemented in the real-time drilling portal as an aid to the drilling engineers and the rig crew to minimize or avoid NPT. Novel/Additive Information. The main contribution of this study is the analysis of real-time surface drilling parameters and sensor data to predict an LCE from a statistically representative number of wells. The large-scale analysis of several wells that appropriately describe the different conditions before an LCE is critical for avoiding model undertraining or lack of model generalization. Finally, we formulated the prediction of LCEs as a time-series problem and considered parameter trends to accurately determine the early signs of LCEs.

scholarly journals Transferring measured discharge time series: Large-scale comparison of Top-kriging to geomorphology-based inverse modeling

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (7) ◽  
pp. 5555-5576 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. de Lavenne ◽  
J. O. Skøien ◽  
C. Cudennec ◽  
F. Curie ◽  
F. Moatar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Inverse Modeling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Discharge Time

scholarly journals Assessing Conformer Energies using Electronic Structure and Machine Learning Methods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dakota Folmsbee ◽  
Geoffrey Hutchison
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Electronic Structure ◽  
Density Functional ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Semiempirical Method ◽  
Coupled Cluster ◽  
Scale Evaluation ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Electronic Structure Methods

We have performed a large-scale evaluation of current computational methods, including conventional small-molecule force fields, semiempirical, density functional, ab initio electronic structure methods, and current machine learning (ML) techniques to evaluate relative single-point energies. Using up to 10 local minima geometries across ~700 molecules, each optimized by B3LYP-D3BJ with single-point DLPNO-CCSD(T) triple-zeta energies, we consider over 6,500 single points to compare the correlation between different methods for both relative energies and ordered rankings of minima. We find promise from current ML methods and recommend methods at each tier of the accuracy-time tradeoff, particularly the recent GFN2 semiempirical method, the B97-3c density functional approximation, and RI-MP2 for accurate conformer energies. The ANI family of ML methods shows promise, particularly the ANI-1ccx variant trained in part on coupled-cluster energies. Multiple methods suggest continued improvements should be expected in both performance and accuracy.

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