scholarly journals A High Resolution Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Forecasting System to Minimize the Impacts of Wildland Fires: Applications to the Chimney Tops II Wildland Event

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro A. Jiménez ◽  
Domingo Muñoz-Esparza ◽  
Branko Kosović
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Wildland Fires ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Nwp Model

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This is illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system is run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.

scholarly journals A High Resolution Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Forecasting System to Minimize the Impacts of Wildland Fires: Applications to the Chimney Tops II Wildland Event

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Jiménez ◽  
Domingo Muñoz-Esparza ◽  
Branko Kosović
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Wildland Fires ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Nwp Model

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This was illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system was run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.

scholarly journals Toward a Weather-Based Forecasting System for Fire Blight and Downy Mildew

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Firanj Sremac ◽  
Branislava Lalić ◽  
Milena Marčić ◽  
Ljiljana Dekić
Keyword(s):  
Downy Mildew ◽  
Fire Blight ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Plasmopara Viticola ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this research is to present a weather-based forecasting system for apple fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) and downy mildew of grapevine (Plasmopara viticola) under Serbian agroecological conditions and test its efficacy. The weather-based forecasting system contains Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs and a disease occurrence model. The weather forecast used is a product of the high-resolution forecast (HRES) atmospheric model by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For disease modelling, we selected a biometeorological system for messages on the occurrence of diseases in fruits and vines (BAHUS) because it contains both diseases with well-known and tested algorithms. Several comparisons were made: (1) forecasted variables for the fifth day are compared against measurements from the agrometeorological network at seven locations for three months (March, April, and May) in the period 2012–2018 to determine forecast efficacy; (2) BAHUS runs driven with observed and forecast meteorology were compared to test the impact of forecasted meteorological data; and (3) BAHUS runs were compared with field disease observations to estimate system efficacy in plant disease forecasts. The BAHUS runs with forecasted and observed meteorology were in good agreement. The results obtained encourage further development, with the goal of fully utilizing this weather-based forecasting system.

Numerical Prediction of the Fire Spread in Vegetative Fuels Using NISTWFDS Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 177-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadj Miloua
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Radiation Heat Transfer ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Forest Stands ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Wind Climate

Current study focuses to the application of an advanced physics-based (reaction–diffusion) fire behavior model to the fires spreading through surface vegetation such as grasslands and elevated vegetation such as trees present in forest stands. This model in three dimensions, called Wildland Fire Dynamics Simulator WFDS, is an extension, to vegetative fuels, of the structural FDS developed at NIST. For simplicity, the vegetation was assumed to be uniformly distributed in a tree crown represented by a well defined geometric shape. This work on will focus on predictions of thermal function such as the radiation heat transfer and and thermal function for diverse cases of spatial distribution of vegetation in forest stands. The influence of wind, climate characteristics and terrain topography will also be used to extend and validate the model. The results obtained provide a basis to carry out a risk analysis for fire spread in the studied vegetative fuels in the Mediterranean forest fires.

scholarly journals The 2013 Rim Fire: Implications for Predicting Extreme Fire Spread, Pyroconvection, and Smoke Emissions

2015 ◽  
Vol 96 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Peterson ◽  
Edward J. Hyer ◽  
James R. Campbell ◽  
Michael D. Fromm ◽  
Johnathan W. Hair ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Detailed Examination ◽  
Rim Fire ◽  
Automated Forecasting ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract The 2013 Rim Fire, which burned over 104,000 ha, was one of the most severe fire events in California’s history, in terms of its rapid growth, intensity, overall size, and persistent smoke plume. At least two large pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events were observed, allowing smoke particles to extend through the upper troposphere over a large portion of the Pacific Northwest. However, the most extreme fire spread was observed on days without pyroCb activity or significant regional convection. A diverse archive of ground, airborne, and satellite data collected during the Rim Fire provides a unique opportunity to examine the conditions required for both extreme spread events and pyroCb development. Results highlight the importance of upper-level and nocturnal meteorology, as well as the limitations of traditional fire weather indices. The Rim Fire dataset also allows for a detailed examination of conflicting hypotheses surrounding the primary source of moisture during pyroCb development. All pyroCbs were associated with conditions very similar to those that produce dry thunderstorms. The current suite of automated forecasting applications predict only general trends in fire behavior, and specifically do not predict 1) extreme fire spread events and 2) injection of smoke to high altitudes. While these two exceptions are related, analysis of the Rim Fire shows that they are not predicted by the same set of conditions and variables. The combination of numerical weather prediction data and satellite observations exhibits great potential for improving automated regional-scale forecasts of fire behavior and smoke emissions.

scholarly journals A Meteorological Study of the Port Hills Fire, Christchurch, New Zealand

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-280
Author(s):  
Ilze Pretorius ◽  
Andrew Sturman ◽  
Tara Strand ◽  
Marwan Katurji ◽  
Grant Pearce
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Lateral Spread ◽  
Diagnostic Model ◽  
Southern Boundary ◽  
Atmospheric Processes

AbstractIn February 2017, a wildfire occurred in the Port Hills on the southern boundary of Christchurch city in New Zealand. It was one of the country’s most severe fires of the last decade in terms of the scale of evacuation, infrastructure damage, and property loss. On the third day of the fire, fire behavior was unexpectedly active, and two rapid downhill fire-spread events took place, creating a dangerous situation for firefighters. The aim of this paper is to explore the atmospheric processes that influenced the fire behavior at a range of meteorological scales, from the synoptic to meso- and microscales. Meteorological and fire data analyzed include observed data together with model simulations of weather conditions at different scales: 1) the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model, which provided the regional context of the fire; and 2) the California Meteorological (CALMET) diagnostic model, which was used to undertake a higher-resolution investigation of atmospheric processes near the fire. Results indicate that the fire was not strongly seasonally influenced. Instead, it appears the fire conditions were the effect of a specific combination of synoptic weather conditions and local meteorological conditions. The first rapid downhill fire-spread event was the result of airflow interaction with the intricate terrain of the Port Hills under stable nocturnal conditions. The second downhill fire-spread event bears similarities to vorticity-driven lateral spread, because the downhill component of the spread happened on a broad fire flank perpendicular to the surface wind direction and characteristic pyrocumulus convection occurred.

Global NWP Modeling of urban environments at ~1km resolution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe McNorton ◽  
Nicolas Bousserez ◽  
Gabriele Arduini ◽  
Anna Agusti-Panareda ◽  
Gianpaolo Balsamo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Trace Gas Emissions ◽  
Urban Representation ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Future Work

<p>Urban areas make up only a small fraction of the Earth’s surface; however, they are home to over 50% of the global population. Accurate numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts in these areas offer clear societal benefits; however, land-atmosphere interactions are significantly different between urban and non-urban environments. Forecasting urban weather requires higher model resolution than the size of the urban domain, which is often achievable by regional but not global NWP models. Here we present the preliminary implementation of an urban scheme within the land surface component of the global Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), at recently developed ~1km horizontal resolution. We evaluate the representation error of fluxes and NWP variables at coarser resolutions (~9 km and ~31 km), using the high resolution as truth. We evaluate the feasibility of the scheme and its urban representation at ~1km scales. Availability of urban mapping data limit the affordable complexity of the global scheme; however, using generalisations model performance is improved over urban sites, even adopting simple schemes, and the modelled Urban Heat Island effects show broad agreement with observations. Several directions for future work are explored including a more complex urban representation, restructuring of the urban tiling and the introduction of an urban emissions model for trace gas emissions.<strong> </strong></p>

A preliminary study of wildland fire pattern indicator reliability following an experimental fire

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 359-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Simeoni ◽  
Zachary C Owens ◽  
Erik W Christiansen ◽  
Abid Kemal ◽  
Michael Gallagher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Fire Investigation ◽  
Experimental Protocol ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Infrared Cameras

An experimental fire was conducted in 2016, in the Pinelands National Reserve of New Jersey, to assess the reliability of the fire pattern indicators used in wildland fire investigation. Objects were planted in the burn area to support the creation of the indicators. Fuel properties and environmental data were recorded. Video and infrared cameras were used to document the general fire behavior. This work represents the first step in the analysis by developing an experimental protocol suitable for field studies and describing how different fire indicators appeared in relation to fire behavior. Most of the micro- and macroscale indicators were assessed. The results show that some indicators are highly dependent on local fire conditions and may contradict the general fire spread. Overall, this study demonstrates that fire pattern indicators are a useful tool for fire investigators but that they must be interpreted through a general analysis of the fire behavior with a good understanding of fire dynamics.

scholarly journals The HARMONIE–AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN–HIRLAM NWP System

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (5) ◽  
pp. 1919-1935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Bengtsson ◽  
Ulf Andrae ◽  
Trygve Aspelien ◽  
Yurii Batrak ◽  
Javier Calvo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Joint Modeling ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Physical Parameterizations

Abstract The aim of this article is to describe the reference configuration of the convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HARMONIE-AROME, which is used for operational short-range weather forecasts in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden. It is developed, maintained, and validated as part of the shared ALADIN–HIRLAM system by a collaboration of 26 countries in Europe and northern Africa on short-range mesoscale NWP. HARMONIE–AROME is based on the model AROME developed within the ALADIN consortium. Along with the joint modeling framework, AROME was implemented and utilized in both northern and southern European conditions by the above listed countries, and this activity has led to extensive updates to the model’s physical parameterizations. In this paper the authors present the differences in model dynamics and physical parameterizations compared with AROME, as well as important configuration choices of the reference, such as lateral boundary conditions, model levels, horizontal resolution, model time step, as well as topography, physiography, and aerosol databases used. Separate documentation will be provided for the atmospheric and surface data-assimilation algorithms and observation types used, as well as a separate description of the ensemble prediction system based on HARMONIE–AROME, which is called HarmonEPS.

scholarly journals Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul-Antoine Santoni ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Filippi ◽  
Jacques-Henri Balbi ◽  
Frédéric Bosseur
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Landscape Scale ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Fuel Models

This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis) for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

scholarly journals A subgrid parameterization scheme for precipitation

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 499-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Turner ◽  
J.-L. Brenguier ◽  
C. Lac
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Liquid Water Content ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Vapor Condensation ◽  
Subgrid Scale ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Water Vapor Condensation ◽  
Similar Scheme ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. With increasing computing power, the horizontal resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is improving and today reaches 1 to 5 km. Nevertheless, clouds and precipitation formation are still subgrid scale processes for most cloud types, such as cumulus and stratocumulus. Subgrid scale parameterizations for water vapor condensation have been in use for many years and are based on a prescribed probability density function (PDF) of relative humidity spatial variability within the model grid box, thus providing a diagnosis of the cloud fraction. A similar scheme is developed and tested here. It is based on a prescribed PDF of cloud water variability and a threshold value of liquid water content for droplet collection to derive a rain fraction within the model grid. Precipitation of rainwater raises additional concerns relative to the overlap of cloud and rain fractions, however. The scheme is developed following an analysis of data collected during field campaigns in stratocumulus (DYCOMS-II) and fair weather cumulus (RICO) and tested in a 1-D framework against large eddy simulations of these observed cases. The new parameterization is then implemented in a 3-D NWP model with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km to simulate real cases of precipitating cloud systems over France.

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