scholarly journals Toward the Modeling of Russia's Monetary System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.M. Borodachev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Currency Reserve ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Money Flows ◽  
The Creation

The paper explains the dynamics of monetary aggregates in Russia with the help of country's trade balance, the creation of deposits by commercial banks and cross-border flows of rubles and (foreign) currency. The volumes of deposits and flows, in turn, depend on changes the currency/ruble exchange rate and favorable external economic conditions. The model was estimated by the Kalman filter, the adequacy was confirmed by stimulation. Monthly money supply forecasts have an accuracy of ~ 1%. It was found that the volume of additional deposits created per month is ~ 300 billion RUB (this leads to real inflation of 9.5% per annum), money flows that are not related to payments for goods: rubles inflow from abroad ~ 100 billion RUB, currency goes abroad ~ $ 15 billion. With the growth / fall of the dollar exchange rate by 1 RUB per month, during the same month, the creation of additional ruble deposits and the arrival of rubles from outside decreases / increases by $ 0.114 billion. The increase of the Currency Reserve Assets of Russia is accompanied by going abroad ~ 5% of the increase.

scholarly journals Toward the Modeling of Russia's Monetary System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.M. Borodachev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
The Creation

The paper gives an explanation of the dynamics of the money masses in Russia through cross-border flows of rubles and (foreign) currency and the creation of deposits by commercial banks. Volumes of flows and deposits in turn depend on changes in the currency/ruble exchange rate. It was found that the growth/fall of the USD rate by 1 RUB for the month, for the same month decreases/increases: currency outflow abroad by $0.111 billion and creation of ruble deposits and the inflow of rubles from outside by $0.133 billion.

scholarly journals Optimality of Morocco’s Currency Basket

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
AZZOUZI Asmae ◽  
BOUSSELHAMI Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Financing Constraints ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Optimal Weights ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

<p><em>The objective of this article is to analyze the behavior of the monetary authorities of Morocco in the readjustment of the official weights of anchor currencies in Dirham basket on April 13, 2015. To do this, we are taking into account the objective of the external financing constraints for comparing, with different scenarios, the optimal weights with the implicit weights of the currencies. Such a comparison proves that the authorities take more into consideration the structure of the commercial exchanges than that of the debt for the choice of the optimal weight of the anchor currency. In the final part of the paper, we have delved deeper into this issue by proposing a detailed sectoral study to examine the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance for each activity sector. Our intention is to find out which foreign currency seems more volatile against the local currency in order to lead the economy to manage the stability of dirham by increasing its weight in the basket. As a result, the higher price elasticity of the Dollar against the dirham encourages Moroccan monetary authorities to increase its weight in the basket. </em></p>

scholarly journals Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Returns of South Asian Region

2020 ◽  
pp. 24-34 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Currency Reserve ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate

This paper is intended to find out whether macroeconomic variables may impact on the stock market as well as whether such impact has any country specific pattern. The stock market return was taken as the dependent variable and real interest rate, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, foreign currency reserve growth rate, fiscal deficit, FDI to GDP ratio, exchange rate were taken as independent variables. Data-set was covered from 1993 to 2019 for five South Asian countries which were Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. The pattern of the stock market, as well as macro conditions of these countries, was observed and it was found that some relationships exist between the stock market returns and these chosen independent variables. Unit root test, Heteroscedasticty test, autocorrelation test, Hausman test is conducted to authenticate and clarified data to investigate relationship nature. Granger Casualty test indicated that there exist cause and effect relationship between GDP growth rate, exchange rate, and stock market returns. Finally, the regression test reveals that the inflation rate and foreign currency reserve growth rate have a significant impact on the stock market returns. It was expected to have the unique nature of different countries having versatile impact on dependent, so additionally fixed effects model and random effects model were run and it was found that the random effects model is statistically appropriate through conducting the Hausman test. The test reveals that GDP growth rate, foreign currency reserve growth rate, and fiscal deficit positively impact the stock market returns and these also support the literature review. Interest rates, inflation rate, FDI to GDP ratio, and exchange rate have negatively impacted the stock market return where only interest rate, inflation rate & exchange rate.

Nigeria forex restrictions are unsustainable

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Special Drawing ◽  
Special Drawing Rights ◽  
The Cost

Significance Instead it ordered that all foreign exchange purchases should occur through commercial banks. This move aims to stabilise the value of the naira by reducing effective domestic demand for foreign currency. Impacts The CBN may allow commercial banks to provide forex to retail dealers as an alternative policy. The cost of imported goods and services will increase. A USD3.35bn IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation will bolster Nigeria’s short-term reserve position. Full exchange rate unification will not occur under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

Banking on foreign currency accounts: evidence from Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (7) ◽  
pp. 1235-1247
Author(s):  
Hway Boon Ong
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Portfolio Choice ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study how the foreign currency account (FCA) is affected by the domestic fixed deposit (FD) rate, the FCA rate, the expected exchange rate and exchange rate risk. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses the causal relationship between the domestic FD rate, the FCA rate, the expected exchange rate on a set of foreign currency deposits and exchange rate volatility, based on the theory of portfolio choice. Based on the theory, the panel vector autoregressive regression of fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares are modelled. Findings There is no cointegrating relationship for the three-month FCA deposits, the domestic FD rate, the FCA rate and the expected exchange rate. Only the six-month FCA business deposits are affected by the domestic FD rate, the FCA rate and the expected exchange rate. The FCA depositors are not affected by exchange rate volatility. Research limitations/implications This study is conducted based on the FCA rate quoted by the leading commercial banks in Malaysia, Maybank. Thus, the FCA rate is used as a proxy for the FCA rate of commercial banks in Malaysia. Originality/value Individual depositors have to save in more than the three-month FCA to realise their expected return. For individuals, the FCA deposit is not an alternative choice to domestic FD. Exporters may use the FCA deposit to finance their foreign purchases to save the cost of foreign exchange conversion but it is still not an appropriate hedging tool against foreign exchange fluctuations as compared to the existing forward foreign exchange facility.

scholarly journals The Role of Monetary Policy in Activating the Bank Credit Channel: Iraq Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 4990-5009
Author(s):  
Mustafa Mohammed Sabri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Credit Channel

The main objective of the research is to find out how monetary policy has influenced the support and promotion of bank credit to promote the economy by creating jobs and addressing unemployment, where the central bank after2003 played a leading and active role in supporting commercial banks and promoting bank credit ‘One of the central bank's important objectives is to stabilize the overall level of prices set out in law No 56 For the year ( ( 2004 Article (3) The Central Bank of Iraq has used the policy of stability in the exchange rate of the dinar as a key tool in stabilizing prices in Iraq through the window of selling foreign currency.

A Model for a Fair Exchange Rate

2006 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
pp. 51-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morgan Aries ◽  
Gianfranco Giromini ◽  
Gunter Meissner
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Currency Reserve ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Parity Exchange

Financial markets have developed formulas and models to derive fair values for bonds, futures, swaps, options and other securities. This model derives a fair value of an exchange rate, which might be used as a benchmark for a long-term equilibrium level to stabilize currency markets. The model is based on the value-added tax adjusted purchasing power parity exchange rate. This rate is then modified by five components: the macro-economic component, the foreign currency reserve component, the debt component, the interest rate component, and the political stability/leadership component. With respect to the American dollar, the model shows that the Euro and the Japanese Yen are overvalued compared to its current exchange rate, while the Brazilian Real, the Russian Ruble, the Chinese Yuan and the Australian dollar are currently undervalued.

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