This paper explores some implications of Hurricane Katrina, especially
as it affected, and will continue to affect, African Americans. Our
observations stem largely from our ongoing examination of the demography
of African Americans, including motivations to leave the South
historically, and recent changes generating a significant “return
migration” of African Americans to the South. The specific case of
Katrina-related migration requires examining issues of race and
class—including the destinations to which Katrina's victims
were displaced and key features of the place to which they might return.
We leave for others the evaluation of ongoing political debates concerning
responsibility for who did what, and why. Our focus is on New Orleans as a
place, and what prospects exist for reconstituting that place in light of
past, present, and prospective demographic trends. We first review recent
work on place and identity, and describe the general features of past
migration patterns of African Americans—both from the South and back
to the South. We then identify important features of New Orleans as a
distinctive place on the U.S. landscape, in part by comparing New Orleans
with other southern cities using the 1% Integrated Public Use Microdata
Series (IPUMS) sample of 2000 U.S. Census data. Finally, we assess the
prospects of the reconstitution of New Orleans as a place resembling what
it was prior to Katrina, by examining the intersecting factors of race,
class, and ethnicity in shaping how, and by whom, the city may be
resettled. We project that the city will be smaller, more White and
Hispanic, more affluent, and more tourism/ entertainment-oriented than
its pre-Katrina reality. Given the difficulty of making such projections,
we conclude with an analysis of various demographic portraits of what the
racial composition of New Orleans may become, depending on (1) its future
size, and (2) relative rates of return migration by White and Black New
Orleanians.
African Americans’ Decisions Not to Evacuate New Orleans Before Hurricane Katrina: A Qualitative Study
