scholarly journals PENGUJIAN NETRALITAS UANG DAN INFLASI JANGKA PANJANG DI INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-118
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy. JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration

scholarly journals LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-99
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 911-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.

Modelling the Nexus Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Case of Afghanistan and Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath ◽  
Ubaid Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control

This paper tries to explore the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth by using the data from the two highest foreign aid recipient countries. Using the annual time series data from 1965 to 2017 this study uses several econometric models such as Johansen and Juselius cointegration, Granger causality and vector auto regression to establish the long and short-run relationships among foreign aid inflows and economic growth while also considering financial development and trade openness from both the countries. The empirical results suggest that no long-run relationship exists among foreign aid inflows and economic growth for both the countries. However, unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth is indicative in both countries. Therefore, the findings in this paper support the adequate need for foreign aid for effective economic growth amid an upright policy environment, related issues of conditionality and political stability. Our results are robust to independent, and control variables and estimation techniques are also on par with robustness.

Financial Innovation and Economic Growth

2006 ◽  
pp. 52-70
Author(s):  
Anita Ghatak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Money Holding ◽  
The Uk

In this chapter, we assess the contribution of financial development to saving and economic growth in the UK in the 20th century. Financial development in this century has been by leaps and bounds along with a number of infamous crashes like the ones in the 1920s and in 1987. Using annual time-series data for the whole century, we find that financial growth has helped saving and economic growth in the UK throughout the 20th century. The unprecedented increase in money holding in 1965 and various forms of financial innovation and liberalisation initiated in the 1980s raised both the level and the rate of economic growth. Money-stock elasticity of GDP has been positive and statistically significant. There are long-run and unique co-integrated relations of GDP with productivity of capital and financial depth in the 20th century. The financial crash of Black Monday in 1987 upset equilibrium relations and led to a negative money-stock elasticity of economic growth.

Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from a Front-line State

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imtiaz Arif ◽  
Tahir Suleman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Factor Index ◽  
The Impact

This article investigates the impact of prolonged terrorist activities on stock prices of different sectors listed in the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) by using the newly developed terrorism impact factor index with lingering effect (TIFL) and monthly time series data from 2002 (January) to 2011 (December). Johansen and Juselius (JJ) cointegration revealed a long-run relationship between terrorism and stock price. Normalized cointegration vectors are used to test the effect of terrorism on stock price. Results demonstrate a significantly mixed positive and negative impact of prolonged terrorism on stock prices of different sectors and show that the market has not become insensitive to the prolonged terrorist attacks.

scholarly journals Is Fiscal Policy Effective in Generating Higher Real Output? A Case of Pakistan

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Hafiz Saqib Mehmood Najmi ◽  
Farrukh Bashir ◽  
Saman Maqsood
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
Motivating Factor

Keeping in view the objective that is to observe the usefulness of fiscal policy on real GDP of Pakistan, the study collects time series data from 1976 to 2012 through reliable sources of statistical bureaus of Pakistan. Using Johansen Cointegration test, the long run results demonstrate investment and government expenditure as raising factor for real GDP of Pakistan while GDP Deflator and government revenue as de-motivating factor for real GDP of Pakistan in the long run.

scholarly journals Impact of Poverty and Population Increase on Environmental Degradation: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and India

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-176
Author(s):  
Sher Ali ◽  
Bibi Aisha Sadiqa ◽  
Sajjad Ali ◽  
Shabana Parveen
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Impact

This study is devoted to elucidating the impact of poverty and population increase on air pollution (CO2-emission) in the two most populous countries of South Asia i.e. Pakistan and India. Annual time series data for the period of 1990-2018 are used to examine the said impact. To estimate the desired impact Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) technique is used. It is observed that CO2 emission is significantly determined by population increase and poverty in case of India. In the case of Pakistan population increase significantly affect CO2 emission in both the short run and long run, while poverty don not contributed significantly in the long run. Industrial production if found positive and statistically significant in both the runs. Stability of the model and other diagnostic tests are also employed not serious econometric problems are repowered. It is suggested on the bases of results that serious steps should be taken to reduce environmental pollution by reducing population increase and poverty. Industrial production also contributed to air pollution therefore industrial policies are also needed to be employed to reduce Air pollution.

scholarly journals Tourism And Economic Growth In Kenya: An Empirical Investigation

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Obadiah N. Kibara ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo ◽  
Josephine M. Njuguna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Critical Question ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series

In this study, we examine the dynamic relationship between tourism sector development and economic growth using annual time-series data from Kenya. The study attempts to answer one critical question - Is tourism development in Kenya pro-growth? The study uses an ARDL-bounds testing approach to examine these linkages and also incorporates trade as an intermittent variable between tourism development and economic growth in a multivariate setting. The results of our study show that there is a uni-directional causality from tourism development to economic growth. The results are found to hold irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run and long run. Other results show that international tourism Granger-causes trade, while trade Granger-causes economic growth in Kenya in both the short and the long run.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document