scholarly journals Is Fiscal Policy Effective in Generating Higher Real Output? A Case of Pakistan

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Hafiz Saqib Mehmood Najmi ◽  
Farrukh Bashir ◽  
Saman Maqsood
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
Motivating Factor

Keeping in view the objective that is to observe the usefulness of fiscal policy on real GDP of Pakistan, the study collects time series data from 1976 to 2012 through reliable sources of statistical bureaus of Pakistan. Using Johansen Cointegration test, the long run results demonstrate investment and government expenditure as raising factor for real GDP of Pakistan while GDP Deflator and government revenue as de-motivating factor for real GDP of Pakistan in the long run.

scholarly journals The causal and cointegration relationship between government revenue and government expenditure

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Kebitsamang Anne Sere ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Short Run

This study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from the year 1980 to 2015 taken from the South African Reserve Bank. The Johansen multivariate method was employed to test for co-integration and for causality the Vector Error Correction/Granger causality test was employed. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-run relation-ship between government revenue and government expenditure. The causality result suggests that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. Thus, policy makers in the short run should determine government revenue and government expenditure of South Africa independently when reducing the budget deficit.

scholarly journals Intra Industry Trade, Fiscal Policy and Terms of Trade Of Pakistan: A Long Run Analysis Using ARDL Technique

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Farrukh Bashir ◽  
Fareeha Andleeb ◽  
Rahat Fatima
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run

This study investigates long run relationship between Intra Industry Trade, fiscal policy and Terms of Trade of Pakistan. Considering the intention, time series data having time span from 1972 to 2014 is chosen. Data is collected through various sources like World Development Indicators, Handbook of Statistics on Pakistan Economy (2010) and Economic Survey of Pakistan (2014 – 15). After observing mixed stationary results of the variables [I(0), I(1)] using Augmented Dickey Fuller test, autoregressive and distributed lag model technique is applied for the analysis. For estimating elasticities of terms of trade with respect to the variables, log – log form of the model is utilized. The study reveals Intra Industry Trade, Real Gross Capital Formation and Real Government Expenditure as significant causes of improving Terms of Trade of Pakistan. On the other side, Terms of Trade of Pakistan is deteriorated due to real Gross Domestic Product and Real Foreign Direct Investment.

scholarly journals Testing the Existence of the Ricardian Equivalence in Ghana in this 21st Century

1970 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-27
Author(s):  
Okwan Frank ◽  
Kovacs Peter
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis formulated by a classical British economist David Ricardo argues that a reduced tax now is a tax increase in the future, the substitution of debt for current taxes has no effect on aggregate demand. The main objective of this paper is to examine empirically the existence of the Ricardian equivalency in Ghana by using time series data running from 1990 to 2017 and ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration and Error Correction Model framework developed by Pesaran and Shin (1995,1999). We examined the long run relationship between the dependent variable household final consumption expenditure and independent variables government expenditure, deficit, GDP per capita and gross debt. The long run results showed a positive and significant relationship between GDP per capita and household consumption expenditure. The result of analysis supports the Keynesian conventional theory and found strong evidence against the existence of the Ricardian Equivalency Hypothesis in Ghana.

scholarly journals LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-99
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic variables on the credit provided by Saudi Banks: تأثير المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على التمويل المصرفي في المملكة العربية السعودية (دراسة قياسية شملت البيانات من 1970م – 2012م)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyas Jafar Abdel Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study aimed to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables of the Saudi economy as in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Government Expenditure (G), Economic Openness (OPE), Inflation Rate (CPI) and the Bank Deposits (DS) on the credit provided by Saudi banks (BF), on annual time series data between 1970-2012. To investigate this relationship, the study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) to measure the long-run and short-run impact, At that the E-views 8.1 has been used for analyze the cointegration,the diagnostic, the reliability - stability tests, and the forecasting behavior of the model. The study found that (BF) is affected positively by (GDP) growth rate in the long-run. Also the (BF) has been affected negatively in the short and long-run by inflation rates (CPI) and government expenditure (G). Consequently the Contractionary Fiscal Policy in recent period will not lead to reduce the financial performance of Saudi banks, and the growth of (GDP) in the future will have positive impact on the financing capacity of the Saudi banking sector.

scholarly journals Determinants of fiscal policy behavior in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Ologbenla
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Fiscal Behavior ◽  
Policy Behavior

The study investigated the factors that determine fiscal behavior in Nigeria. The vulnerability of fiscal policy framework in Nigeria to different shocks and the attendant effects on the behavior of fiscal policy are parts of the reasons that prompted this research work. Annual data between 1980 and 2015 on core fiscal variables such as government revenue, government expenditure, fiscal balance, public debt, as well as other variables such as oil price, exchange rate, and inflation rate commodity price among others, are used. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag ARDL estimating technique is used to analyze both the long-run and short-run effects of these variables on fiscal behavior in Nigeria. Findings from the study show that fiscal policy in Nigeria is highly vulnerable to shocks from these variables mostly in the short run. Notwithstanding, variables like government revenue, government expenditure, regime of administration, oil price and commodity price volatilities all have sustained effects till the long-run periods. It was discovered that oil price movements is not the only external factor that has pronounced effects on fiscal behavior, but commodity prices volatility generally constitutes an important influential factor in determination of fiscal policy behavior in Nigeria.

ANALISIS KOINTEGRASI DAN KAUSALITAS ANTARA INFRASTRUKTUR JALAN, PERDAGANGAN BARANG DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI NEGARA ANGGOTA ASEAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonius KAP Simbolon
Keyword(s):  
Member Country ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period

This research aims to analyze Cointegration and Causality among ASEAN Road Infrastructure, ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth, using time series data, that is yearly data during the time period 2007 to 2015. The method used to test cointegration is Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Test dan the method used to test the causality is Granger’s Causality. The result of cointegration test revealed that there are a long run relationship between ASEAN Road Infrastructure, ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN. While the results of the Granger Causality test found there is a two-way relationship (mutual causality) between ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN. But, there is one-way relationship between ASEAN Road Infrastructure and ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN, which ASEAN Road Infrastructure gives effect to ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth

Does Infrastructure Matters in Government Spending? A Case Study of Jammu and Kashmir (India) with Cointegration Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Ul Hassan ◽  
Biswambhara Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study is an attempt to investigate the impact of infrastructure level on government spending in short and long run and also to find the tendency of infrastructure level to stabilise any disequilibrium in government spending in long run. Infrastructure is related to the quality and quantity of goods and services provided by government to the population, to fulfil their diverse demands. The state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is not an exception; the increasing trend in different aspects of population and rising needs and aspirations of the growing population forces the government to increase expenditure on that count, which results in increase in aggregate government spending. Using multivariate cointegration technique followed by vector error correction model (VECM) model on annual time-series data for the period from 1984 to 2013 with broader data set of infrastructure dimension, the study found that the infrastructure variables cause major variation in government expenditure in short as well as in long run. Study shows that infrastructure related to health, education, roads and portable water produce positive and significant impact on the growth of government spending and infrastructure related to these dimensions has significant tendency to stabilise any disequilibrium in government spending in long run. JEL Classification: H3, H5, H53, I

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Determinants of Inclusive Growth in Pakistan: An ARDL Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol IV (II) ◽  
pp. 105-118
Author(s):  
Vivek Anand ◽  
Muhammad Qasim Nizamani ◽  
Farheen Qasim Nizamani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

There is increasing concern that growth in most part of the world in not distributed equitably. This is particularly the situation in Pakistan, where the economic growth is uneven and biased toward the affluent. This study aims to present empirical analysis to characterize the association between inclusive growth and its macro-economic determinants in Pakistan. In this context, the study employs annual time-series data for 23 years (1994-2017). In order to obtain long-run and short-term results, both auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) was being implemented. The findings of the study reveal that infrastructure development and government consumption have a positive and significant impact on the long-term inclusive growth of Pakistan. In contrast, a negative relationship is being observed between inflation, health expenditure and inclusive growth. Based on the findings, the study suggests that policymakers should develop appropriate policies to promote healthy government expenditure, infrastructure development, control inflation, and bring transparency in the health sector for fostering inclusive growth in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic determinants of total factor productivity and its trend in Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 219-228
Author(s):  
Adisu Abebaw Degu ◽  
Dagim Tadesse Bekele
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Long Run

Total factor productivity (TFP) as a source of economic growth, has been recognized in economic theory for a long period of time. In this research we tried to examine the effect of some macroeconomic factors, which include trade openness, inflation, government expenditure, credit extended and foreign direct investment, and natural disaster drought on total factor productivity and its trend in Ethiopia by using Time series data spanning from 1991 to 2018.  The TFP was computed by using the growth accounting method from Cobb–Douglas production function.  ARDL was used for estimation of the short and long run econometric model.  Accordingly, the trend analysis shows the growth in TFP has been fluctuating over the study period. The result from ARDL indicated that; in long run foreign direct investment, government expenditure and drought negatively and significantly affect TFP. Credit extended is found to affect TFP positively and significantly, while inflation and trade openness are insignificant. Therefore, policies such as; subsidizing domestic firms, effective government spending and making the agriculture sector drought resistant need to be stimulated.

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