scholarly journals UNDERSTANDING INDONESIA’S CITY-LEVEL CONSUMER PRICE FORMATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRICE STABILITY

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 405-422
Author(s):  
Paresh Kumar Narayan
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Monthly Data

Using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data of 82 Indonesian cities, we propose thehypothesis of heterogeneity in the cities’ contribution to the aggregate IndonesianCPI. Using a price discovery model fitted to monthly data, we discover that (1) of the23 cities in the province of Sumatera, five contribute 44% and nine contribute 66.7%to price changes, and (2) of the 26 cities in Java, four alone contribute 41.6% to pricechanges. Even in smaller provinces, such as Bali and Nusa Tenggara, one city alonedominates the change in aggregate CPI. From these results, we draw implications formaintaining price stability.

scholarly journals Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Kointegrasi

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Muhamad Muin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate (RER) and the money supply (M1) on the outgrowth of the consumer price index (CPI) in Indonesia. The data used in this study are monthly data series from January 2005 to January 2019. The results of this empirical study shows that there is a relationship between RER and M1 on CPI in the long term and there is a correction in the short term balance (ECM) which is influenced by M1. All of these variables are significant at α = 5% and partly significant at α = 1%.

scholarly journals How Frequent Are Small Price Changes?

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Eichenbaum ◽  
Nir Jaimovich ◽  
Sergio Rebelo ◽  
Josephine Smith
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Scanner Data ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Nominal Rigidity ◽  
Menu Cost ◽  
Litmus Test

Recent empirical work suggests that small price changes are relatively common. This evidence has been used to criticize classic menu-cost models. In this paper, we use scanner data from a national supermarket chain and micro data from the Consumer Price Index to reassess the importance of small price changes. We argue that the vast majority of these changes are due to measurement error. We conclude that the evidence on the prevalence of small price changes is much too weak to be used as a litmus test of nominal rigidity models. (JEL C82, E31, L11, L81)

scholarly journals Temporary Price Changes, Inflation Regimes, and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-152
Author(s):  
Fernando Alvarez ◽  
Francesco Lippi
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Scanner Data ◽  
Optimal Plan ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Menu Cost

We present a sticky price model that features the coexistence of many price changes, most of which are temporary, with a modest flexibility of the aggregate price level. Stickiness is introduced in the form of a price plan, namely a set of two prices: either price can be charged at any moment but changing the plan entails a menu cost. We analytically solve for the optimal plan and for the aggregate output response to a monetary shock. We present evidence consistent with the model implications using scanner data, as well as Consumer Price Index data across a wide range of inflation rates. (JEL D22, E31, E52, L11, O11, O23)

scholarly journals Financial Stress and Economic Activity Analysis in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
pp. 637-643
Author(s):  
Wulan Fatmawati ◽  
Iman Sugema ◽  
Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Monetary Stability ◽  
Financial Stress Index ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

Financial Stress marks the beginning of a crisis and may occur in all countries. This period is certainly unanticipated as it may disrupt a country's financial and monetary stability. An unstable financial system tends to be vulnerable to various stresses and may also hinder the transmission of monetary policy to function normally, thus resulting in ineffective monetary policy. This study aims to analyze financial and monetary stability in Indonesia using time series monthly data from January 1996 to January 2018. We used Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Our estimates suggest that the response of consumer price index to financial stress index takes longer to stabilize. This also applies to consumer price index response to consumer price index.

Total Offset and Medical Net Discount Rates: 1981–2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Schap ◽  
Lauren Guest ◽  
Andrew Kraynak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Treasury Securities ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Published Research

Abstract Medical net discount rates (MNDRs) are calculated using monthly data for the period 1981:01–2012:06 based on the medical consumer price index and annual percentage yields based on 3-month, 6-month and 1-year U.S. Treasury Securities. Stationarity is tested for each series and the results of time-series analytics through 2000:05 are compared to previously published results (Ewing, Payne and Piette, 2001) that omitted Treasury Securities of shortest duration. The various series are extended to 2012:06 and the time series properties are examined. Although the results are mixed, they are more supportive of total offset (i.e., a zero MNDR) than previously published research findings have been.

scholarly journals FORECASTING THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN YOGYAKARTA BY USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Syintya Febriyanti ◽  
Wahyu Aji Pradana ◽  
Juliana Saputra Muhammad ◽  
Edy Widodo
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator that is often used to measure the inflation rate in an area, or can be interpreted as a comparison between the prices of a commodity package from a group of goods or services consumed by households over a certain period time. The spread of COVID-19 throughout the world affects the economy in Indonesia, especially Yogyakarta. Forecasting CPI data during the COVID-19 pandemic has the benefit of being an illustration of data collection in the CPI of D.I Yogyakarta Province in the predicted period. This is useful as a comparison with the original data at the time of data collection and publication, as well as a consideration in making policies and improving the economy. Researchers use the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method to predict the CPI of Yogyakarta D.I Province, which aims to determine the best forecasting model and forecasting results. This method is rarely used in research on CPI data forecasting in Yogyakarta. The data in this study are monthly data from March 2020 to August 2021. The highest CPI in Yogyakarta occurred in August 2021 at 107.21 or 107.2, while the lowest CPI in Yogyakarta occurred in April 2020 at 105.15 or 105.2. The average CPI in Yogyakarta per month is 106.1. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value obtained from the DES method is 0.1308443%, so that the accuracy of the model is 99.869%. Forecasting with the DES method is quite well used in forecasting the CPI data of Yogyakarta in September 2020 - November 2021. The results of CPI forecasting in Yogyakarta using the DES method were 107.2602, 107.3104, and 107.3606 from September-November.

Applying the Input-output Price Model to Identify Inflation Processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Przybyliński ◽  
Artur Gorzałczyński
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Price Model ◽  
Output Price ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Overall Performance

Abstract We try to examine the potential of input-output price model to identify mechanisms of price formation and transmission. Contrary to previous research focused on overcoming the specific limitations of the model, we test its overall performance. In the presented study the historical values of the commonly used Consumer Price Index were decomposed according to the classic input-output price model for an open economy. A sequence of ex-post simulations under various assumptions was used to identify the sources of inflation. This study required the use of input – output tables in current and previous year’s prices. The proposed method of decomposition might be a starting point to create a framework for studying different aspects of inflation process.JEL: C67, E31, E37

Dampak Penerapan Perbankan Syari’ah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara: Kajian Perbandingan Malaysia dan Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Hansen Rusliani
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak perbankan syari’ah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data primer (interview) dan data sekunder dalam bentuk bulanan yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Bank Indonesia (SEKI-BI) dan Statistik Perbankan Syari’ah Bank Indonesia (SPS-BI) serta data dari Bank Negara Malaysia dan Departemen Statistik Malaysia dalam periode waktu kurun waktu 16 tahun, 2000 sampai dengan 2015. Observasi penelitian dilakukan di Indonesia dan Malaysia untuk memperkaya analisis. Penelitian ini menggunakan Vector Autoregression (VAR), Uji Kointegrasi serta dikombinasikan dengan Response Function (IRF) dan Decomposition (FEVD) untuk melihat interaksi antara faktor makro ekonomi dengan pembiayaan dalam jangka panjang. Adapun variabel yang digunakan adalah total pembiayan syari’ah (Total Syari’ah Financing) dan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) sebagai representasi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk tambahan variabel digunakan Consumer Price Index (CPI) sebagai representasi tingkat inflasi. Hipotesis penelitian yaitu terdapat pertumbuhan ekonomi setiap tahunnya dikedua negara tersebut pasca krisis moneter.

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