scholarly journals Spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition at the prefecture level in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents: an analytical-ecologic epidemiological study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hagen Scherb ◽  
Japan Hayashi Osaka Keiji Hayashi Children's Clinic
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Dose Rate ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
P Value ◽  
Additional Dose ◽  
Level Shifts

Abstract Background: Perinatal mortality increased in contaminated prefectures after the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accidents in Japan in 2011. Elevated counts of surgeries for cryptorchidism and congenital heart malformations were observed throughout Japan from 2012 onward. The thyroid cancer detection rate (2011 to 2016) was associated with the dose-rate at the municipality level in the Fukushima prefecture. Since the birth weight is a simple and objective indicator for gestational development and pregnancy outcome, the question arises whether the annual birth weight distribution was distorted in a dose-rate-dependent manner across Japan after Fukushima. Methods: The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare provides prefecture-specific annual counts for 26.158 million live births from 1995 to 2018, of which 2.366 million births (9.04%) with weights < 2500 g. Prefecture-specific spatiotemporal trends of the low birth weight proportions were analyzed. Logistic regression allowing for level-shifts from 2012 onward was employed to test whether those level-shifts were proportional to the prefecture-specific dose-rates derived from Cs-137 deposition in the 47 Japanese prefectures. Results: The overall trend of the low birth weight prevalence (LBWp) in Japan discloses a jump in 2012 with a jump odds ratio (OR) 1.020, 95%-confidence interval (1.003,1.037), p-value 0.0246. A logistic regression of LBWp on the additional dose-rate after the FDNPP accidents adjusted for prefecture-specific spatiotemporal base-line trends yields an OR per µSv/h of 1.098 (1.058, 1.139), p-value < 0.0001. Further adjusting the logistic regression for the annual population size and physician density of the prefectures, as well as for the counts of the dead, the missing, and the evacuees due to earthquake and tsunami (as surrogate measures for medical infrastructure and stress) yields an OR per µSv/h of 1.109 (1.032, 1.191), p-value 0.0046.Conclusions: This study shows increased low birth weight prevalence related to Cs-137 deposition and the corresponding additional dose-rate in Japan from 2012 onward. Previous evidence suggesting compromised gestational development and pregnancy outcome under elevated environmental ionizing radiation exposure is corroborated.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition at the prefecture level in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents: an analytical-ecologic epidemiological study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hagen Scherb ◽  
Japan Hayashi Osaka Keiji Hayashi Children's Clinic
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Dose Rate ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
P Value ◽  
Additional Dose ◽  
Level Shifts

Abstract Background: Perinatal mortality increased in contaminated prefectures after the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accidents in Japan in 2011. Elevated counts of surgeries for cryptorchidism and congenital heart malformations were observed throughout Japan from 2012 onward. The thyroid cancer detection rate (2011 to 2016) was associated with the dose-rate at the municipality level in the Fukushima prefecture. Since the birth weight is a simple and objective indicator for gestational development and pregnancy outcome, the question arises whether the annual birth weight distribution was distorted in a dose-rate-dependent manner across Japan after Fukushima. Methods: The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare provides prefecture-specific annual counts for 26.158 million live births from 1995 to 2018, of which 2.366 million births (9.04%) with weights < 2500 g. Prefecture-specific spatiotemporal trends of the low birth weight proportions were analyzed. Logistic regression allowing for level-shifts from 2012 onward was employed to test whether those level-shifts were proportional to the prefecture-specific dose-rates derived from Cs-137 deposition in the 47 Japanese prefectures. Results: The overall trend of the low birth weight prevalence (LBWp) in Japan discloses a jump in 2012 with a jump odds ratio (OR) 1.020, 95%-confidence interval (1.003,1.037), p-value 0.0246. A logistic regression of LBWp on the additional dose-rate after the FDNPP accidents adjusted for prefecture-specific spatiotemporal base-line trends yields an OR per µSv/h of 1.098 (1.058, 1.139), p-value < 0.0001. Further adjusting the logistic regression for the annual population size and physician density of the prefectures, as well as for the counts of the dead, the missing, and the evacuees due to earthquake and tsunami (as surrogate measures for medical infrastructure and stress) yields an OR per µSv/h of 1.109 (1.032, 1.191), p-value 0.0046. Conclusions: This study shows increased low birth weight prevalence related to the Cs-137 deposition and the corresponding additional dose-rate in Japan from 2012 onward. Previous evidence suggesting compromised gestational development and pregnancy outcome under elevated environmental ionizing radiation exposure is corroborated.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition at the prefecture level in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents: an analytical-ecologic epidemiological study

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hagen Scherb ◽  
Keiji Hayashi
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Dose Rate ◽  
Pregnancy Outcome ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Additional Dose ◽  
Level Shifts

Abstract Background Perinatal mortality increased in contaminated prefectures after the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accidents in Japan in 2011. Elevated counts of surgeries for cryptorchidism and congenital heart malformations were observed throughout Japan from 2012 onward. The thyroid cancer detection rate (2011 to 2016) was associated with the dose-rate at the municipality level in the Fukushima prefecture. Since the birth weight is a simple and objective indicator for gestational development and pregnancy outcome, the question arises whether the annual birth weight distribution was distorted in a dose-rate-dependent manner across Japan after Fukushima. Methods The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare provides prefecture-specific annual counts for 26.158 million live births from 1995 to 2018, of which 2.366 million births (9.04%) with weights < 2500 g. Prefecture-specific spatiotemporal trends of the low birth weight proportions were analyzed. Logistic regression allowing for level-shifts from 2012 onward was employed to test whether those level-shifts were proportional to the prefecture-specific dose-rates derived from Cs-137 deposition in the 47 Japanese prefectures. Results The overall trend of the low birth weight prevalence (LBWp) in Japan discloses a jump in 2012 with a jump odds ratio (OR) 1.020, 95%-confidence interval (1.003,1.037), p-value 0.0246. A logistic regression of LBWp on the additional dose-rate after the FDNPP accidents adjusted for prefecture-specific spatiotemporal base-line trends yields an OR per μSv/h of 1.098 (1.058, 1.139), p-value < 0.0001. Further adjusting the logistic regression for the annual population size and physician density of the prefectures, as well as for the counts of the dead, the missing, and the evacuees due to earthquake and tsunami (as surrogate measures for medical infrastructure and stress) yields an OR per μSv/h of 1.109 (1.032, 1.191), p-value 0.0046. Conclusions This study shows increased low birth weight prevalence related to the Cs-137 deposition and the corresponding additional dose-rate in Japan from 2012 onward. Previous evidence suggesting compromised gestational development and pregnancy outcome under elevated environmental ionizing radiation exposure is corroborated.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition after Fukushima at the prefecture level in Japan: an ecological study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hagen Scherb ◽  
Japan Hayashi Osaka Keiji Hayashi Children's Clinic
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Dose Rate ◽  
Pregnancy Outcome ◽  
P Value ◽  
Dependent Manner ◽  
Additional Dose ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Level Shifts

Abstract Background: Perinatal mortality increased in contaminated prefectures after the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accidents in Japan in 2011. Elevated numbers of surgeries for cryptorchidism and congenital heart malformations were observed throughout Japan from 2012 onward. The thyroid cancer detection rate (2011 to 2016) was associated with the dose-rate at the municipality level in the Fukushima prefecture. Since the birth weight is a simple and objective indicator for gestational development and pregnancy outcome, the question arises whether the annual birth weight distribution was distorted in a dose-rate-dependent manner across Japan after Fukushima. Data and Methods: The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare provides prefecture-specific annual counts for 26.158 million live births from 1995 to 2018, of which 2.366 million births (9.04%) with weights < 2500g. Prefecture-specific spatiotemporal trends of the low birth weight proportions were analyzed. Logistic regression allowing for level-shifts from 2012 onward was employed to test whether those level-shifts were proportional to the prefecture-specific dose-rates derived from Cs-137 deposition in the 47 Japanese prefectures. Results: The overall trend of the low birth weight proportion (LBWp) in Japan discloses a jump in 2012 with a jump odds ratio (OR) 1.020, 95%-confidence interval (1.003,1.037), p-value 0.0225. A logistic regression of LBWp on the additional dose-rate after Fukushima adjusted for prefecture-specific spatiotemporal base-line trends yields an OR per µSv/h of 1.098 (1.058, 1.139), p-value < 0.0001. Further adjusting the logistic regression for the annual population size and physician density of the prefectures, as well as for the counts of the dead, the missing, and the evacuees due to earthquake and tsunami (as surrogate measures for medical infrastructure and stress) yields an OR per µSv/h of 1.109 (1.032, 1.191), p-value 0.0046. Conclusion: This study shows increased low birth weight prevalence related to Cs-137 deposition and the corresponding additional dose-rate in Japan from 2012 onward. Previous evidence suggesting compromised gestational development and pregnancy outcome under elevated environmental ionizing radiation exposure is corroborated.

scholarly journals Response to the “letter to the editor” by Sani Rachman Soleman et al., “spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition at the prefecture level in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents”

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hagen Scherb ◽  
Keiji Hayashi
Keyword(s):  
Birth Weight ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
P Value ◽  
List Type ◽  
Radiation Dose Rate ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Ecological Association

AbstractWe thank Sani Rachman Soleman et al. for three specific points of criticism concerning our investigation of the ecological association between low birth weight (LBW) and radioactive contamination in Japan after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accidents: Ecological variables are not justified enough to adjust potential confounding. The spatiotemporal regression model does not consider temporal reduction in radiation dose rate. Dose-response plot between dose rates and odds ratios overestimates R2and underestimates p-value. This criticism is a good starting point to explain some of the technical backgrounds of our approach in more detail.

scholarly journals Letter to the editor regarding “spatiotemporal association of low birth weight with Cs-137 deposition at the prefecture level in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents”

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sani Rachman Soleman ◽  
Tomoko Fujitani ◽  
Kouji H. Harada
Keyword(s):  
Birth Weight ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Radiation Dose ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Radiation Dose Rate ◽  
Dose Rates ◽  
Nuclear Disaster ◽  
Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

AbstractIn the previous report, association between increased low birth weight prevalence and radiocesium deposition after 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster was found. However, the statistical analyses therein raised several questions. First, ecological variables are not justified enough to adjust potential confounding. Second, the spatiotemporal regression model does not consider temporal reduction in radiation dose rate. Third, dose-response plot between dose rates and odds ratios overestimates R2 and underestimates p value.

scholarly journals Ecosystem model-based approach for modeling the dynamics of <sup>137</sup>Cs transfer to marine plankton populations: application to the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 499-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Belharet ◽  
C. Estournel ◽  
S. Charmasson
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Dose Rate ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Western North Pacific Ocean

Abstract. Huge amounts of radionuclides, especially 137Cs, were released into the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) accident that occurred on 11 March 2011, resulting in contamination of the marine biota. In this study we developed a radioecological model to estimate 137Cs concentrations in phytoplankton and zooplankton populations representing the lower levels of the pelagic trophic chain. We coupled this model to a lower trophic level ecosystem model and an ocean circulation model to take into account the site-specific environmental conditions in the area. The different radioecological parameters of the model were estimated by calibration, and a sensitivity analysis to parameter uncertainties was carried out, showing a high sensitivity of the model results, especially to the 137Cs concentration in seawater, to the rates of accumulation from water and to the radionuclide assimilation efficiency for zooplankton. The results of the 137Cs concentrations in planktonic populations simulated in this study were then validated through comparison with the data available in the region after the accident. The model results have shown that the maximum concentrations in plankton after the accident were about 2 to 4 orders of magnitude higher than those observed before the accident, depending on the distance from FNPP. Finally, the maximum 137Cs absorbed dose rate for phyto- and zooplankton populations was estimated to be about 5  ×  10−2 µGy h−1, and was, therefore, lower than the predicted no-effect dose rate (PNEDR) value of 10 µGy h−1 defined in the ERICA assessment approach.

Natural variation of ambient dose rate in the air of Izu-Oshima Island after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

2015 ◽  
Vol 168 (4) ◽  
pp. 561-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumihiko Maedera ◽  
Kazumasa Inoue ◽  
Masato Sugino ◽  
Ryosuke Sano ◽  
Mai Furue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Dose Rate ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Natural Variation ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant Accident ◽  
Fukushima Daiichi ◽  
Ambient Dose

scholarly journals Clinical profile and factors determining outcome of intramural very low birth weight babies in a tertiary care centre: a retrospective study

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 520
Author(s):  
Devi Meenakshi K. ◽  
Arasar Seeralar A. T. ◽  
Srinivasan Padmanaban
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Very Low Birth Weight ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
P Value ◽  
Increased Risk

Background: Very low birth weight (VLBW) babies are at increased risk of a number of complications both immediate and late. Worldwide it has been observed that these babies contribute to a significant extent to neonatal mortality and morbidity. Aim of the study was to study the risk factors contributing to mortality in VLBW babies and to evaluate the morbidity pattern in these infants.Methods: A retrospective analysis of data retrieved from the case records of VLBW babies admitted in the NICU of Kilpauk Medical College between January 2015 to December 2015. Out of the 2360 intramural babies admitted during the study period, 99 babies were less than 1500 gms. The risk factors for these babies were analyzed for their association with the outcome. Data were statistically analyzed.Results: In present study, we found that sex of the baby, gestational age, obstetric score, birth asphyxia, pulmonary haemorrhage, ROP and presence of shock were found to be associated with increased mortality. By logistic regression analysis it was observed that birth weight of the baby (p value 0.002), duration of stay (p value 0.0006), presence of shock (p<0.0001), were the risk factors significantly associated with poor outcome.Conclusions: Among the maternal and neonatal factors analyzed in the study using logistic regression analysis, birth weight, duration of hospital stay and presence of shock were significantly related to poor outcome. Of these presence of shock was the single most important factor that predicted increased mortality.

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