scholarly journals Forest succession, management and the economy under a changing climate: coupling economic and forest management models to assess impacts and adaptation options

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Van Lantz ◽  
Galen McMonagle ◽  
Chris Hennigar ◽  
Chinmay Sharma ◽  
Patrick Withey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Forest Succession ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Options

Abstract Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on forests by affecting the successional dynamics of tree species and the performance of plantations, among others. Research is needed to better understand how these factors will affect forests and economies in different regions, and how we can best adapt. To shed some light on these issues, we couple an economic (Computable General Equilibrium) model with a forest management (Woodstock) model to analyze the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options on timber supply and the economy over the 2015-95 period in a case-study province of New Brunswick, Canada. We estimate that climate change may have relatively large negative impacts on softwood timber supply (at 26% by 2095), softwood forestry & logging sector output quantity (at 12% by 2095), and softwood-dependent forestry manufacturing sector output (ranging from 6% to 27% by 2095). Negative impacts on GDP may be relatively smaller (at up to a 0.33% reduction by 2095). Adapting to these climate-related changes by planting drought-resistant softwood seedlings or hardwood seedlings in place of failed softwood plantations can reduce these negative impacts. While the former adaptation option is supported using cost-benefit analysis, the latter is not – due to the large incremental costs of growing, planting, and tending hardwood seedlings. Methods developed in this study can be applied in other regions to help guide decision-making around forest management in the face of a changing climate.

scholarly journals Economic analysis of ecosystem based adaptation and engineering options: A case study from Udayapur, Nepal

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Dinesh Chandra Devkota ◽  
Kamal Thapa ◽  
Bhaskar Kharki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
High Benefit ◽  
Adaptation Options

Ecosystem services are vital to our well-being as they directly or indirectly support our survival and quality of life. But, the growing impact of climate change diminishes the benefit from ecosystem services. Therefore, identifying possible applicable adaptation options are inevitable to reduce the effect of climate change. The present research is based on a case study of Ksedi River watershed, Ajgada Village in Udaypur district of Nepal. The study demonstrates the comparison between different options to deal with flood and make a sound decision, based on economic rationale for long-term benefits. The present study compares ecosystem based adaptation options with engineering options using cost benefit analysis in order to protect village from flooding. Through stakeholder and expert consultations, ecosystem based adaptation options and economic options that are feasible in the village and catchment to mitigate the floods were listed. Economic analysis of these options and the different combinations were done using cost benefit analysis. Analysis was carried out for each of the different combination of options. Focus on ecosystem based adaptation options provide high benefit to cost return in terms of avoided damages and considering engineering options efficient in flood and erosion control in initial stage in spite of its high cost. The study suggests that reforestation in upland forest areas; plantation along riverbed and management of rangeland should be prioritized. Similarly, preparation of flood model, flood height damage curve and flood vulnerable maps specific to the site will help decision makers to implement site specific adaptation options.

Farmers’ perception, adaptation to groundwater salinity, and climate change vulnerability: insights from North India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susmita Mitra ◽  
Pradeep K. Mehta ◽  
Sudipta Kumar Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Groundwater Salinity ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Successful Adaptation ◽  
Perceived Impacts ◽  
Negative Impacts

AbstractGroundwater salinity, caused by over-extraction and aggravated by climate change, negatively affects crop productivity and threatens global food security. Poor farmers are vulnerable due to low adaptive capacity. A better understanding of their perceptions and adaptation is important to inform policies for successful adaptation. This paper represents an important study by exploring the same in Mewat, a salinity-affected socioeconomically backward district of northern India. The study uses a mixed-method approach with both secondary data and a primary survey of 250 farmers. A large number of farmers perceived negative impacts on water, crop, income, and assets; and adapt in various ways like water management, crop, and land management, livelihood diversification, and shift towards surface water irrigation. Perceived impacts differed between richer and poorer farmers, whereas adaptation measures varied across the educational, social, and economic backgrounds of farmers. Lack of awareness, education, skill development, and livelihood-opportunities are found to be hindrances, whereas institutional and infrastructural support as facilitators of adaptation. Comparing the findings with global experiences we argued that developed countries intervene more in the policy level and infrastructure, whereas in developing countries, adaptation strategies are local, context-specific, and low-cost. The insights from our study will be useful for intervention in Mewat and similar areas across the developing world. We further argue that farmers take adaptation decisions based on perceived impacts and cost-benefit analysis. Therefore, future research work on quantifying the negative impacts and cost-benefit analysis of various adaptation measures will be useful to ensure successful adaptation in the region and beyond.

A Cost Benefit Analysis for Distribution of Threatened Species Based on Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Nandhi Kesavan ◽  
Latha K
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Endangered Species ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Ecological Traits ◽  
Species List ◽  
Critically Endangered Species ◽  
Reptile Species ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Among all the threats to global diversity, climate change is the most severe cause. According to the world’s biodiversity conservation organization, reptile species are affected mostly because the biological and ecological traits of the reptiles are strongly linked with climate. To prevent species extinction, we tried to develop a decision support system that incurs the costs and benefits of reintroducing a taxon from its origin to adapt environmental conditions to conserve it from its extinction. The model was developed by applying multiple linear regressions that take the climatic variables and species traits to determine the cost and benefits for the distribution of species. The effectiveness of the model was evaluated by applying it to the Indian Black Turtle, which is an endangered species list in India evaluated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature list. The model recommends moving the species, which is endangered, to the location where it can save itself from climate change. However, the framework demonstrates huge differences in the estimated significance of climate change, and the model strategy helps to recognize the probable risk of increased revelation to critically endangered species.

scholarly journals Climate, disaster and risk: introduction

2021 ◽  
Vol 9s8 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Simon Goldhill ◽  
Georgie Fitzgibbon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Climate Disasters ◽  
Climate Disaster

This special issue focuses on the intersections of climate, disasters, and development. The research presented here is designed to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making, and promote sustainable development by maximising the beneficial impacts of responses to climate change and minimising negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.

Economic Impact Assessment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Getz
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Equity Issues ◽  
Cge Modelling ◽  
Economic Impact Assessment ◽  
Event Tourism

Concepts for understanding economic impacts, and valid methods of assessment are well developed. In fact, there is so much information available that this is the largest chapter in the book – not the most important. A thorough and accessible reference on the subject is the book Tourism Economics and Policy by Dwyer, Forsyth and Dwyer (2010) as it contains a full chapter on events. Event Tourism (Getz, 2013) also covers economic impact assessment in detail. There have been well-documented problems with economic impact assessments for tourism and events (Matheson, 2002; Matheson and Baade, 2003; Crompton and McKay, 2004; Tyrell & Ismail, 2005; Crompton, 2006; Davies et al., 2013), pertaining to both how they are done and the purposes they serve. Dwyer and Jago (2014, p.130) identified three main types of criticisms associated with the assessment of the economic impacts of events, commencing with the exaggeration of benefits owing to either deliberate manipulation or faulty methods. Attention has often focused on the use of Input-Output tables to formulate ‘multipliers’, a practice which leads to exaggerated benefits, with a number of scholars preferring Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Most fundamental is the frequent failure to consider all costs and benefits, leading to calls for more comprehensive cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Most economic IAs have utilized only a narrow range of metrics, but even more unfortunate is the continued reliance on multipliers and econometric models, as these ‘black-box’ approaches tend to exaggerate imputed benefits while ignoring costs and equity issues. This is certainly not in keeping with principles of social responsibility and sustainability.

Economic cost benefit analysis of climate change adaptation for infrastructure

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 687
Author(s):  
Michael Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Lessons Learnt

This paper explores the lessons learnt from the Optimising Adaptation Investment projects for the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency–it includes coastal settlements, water supply and rail infrastructure case studies. These projects are the first of their kind in Australia and are considered internationally as a leading example of economic cost benefit analysis. They have been used effectively to inform decision making on specific adaptation responses to climate change risks to existing and new infrastructure. The lessons learnt will be explored for offshore platforms, ports, rail, road, drainage, tailings dams, mine facilities, water, and power supply, which includes the following elements: What decision makers require to make informed decisions under the uncertainty of climate change impacts. Reducing the uncertainty through economic modelling and cost benefit analysis. Optimising the right timing and scale of various adaptation options. Benefiting from oil and gas infrastructure adaptation opportunities. To further support the elements above, the applied process for integrating climate adaptation into infrastructure planning, design and operation will be illustrated by AECOM project experiences. AECOM has completed more than 60 significant climate change risk and adaptation projects for mines, ports, water supply and treatment, energy generation, transmission and distribution, rail, road, and coastal settlements in Australia, including the report: Climate Change Impacts to Infrastructure in Australia for the Garnaut Climate Change Review.

scholarly journals Cost-Benefit Analysis of Adaptation to Beach Loss Due to Climate Change in Japan

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 715
Author(s):  
Kazunori Nakajima ◽  
Naoki Sakamoto ◽  
Keiko Udo ◽  
Yuriko Takeda ◽  
Eiji Ohno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Recreation Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Quality Factors ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Damage Costs

To measure economic effects of changes in environmental quality caused by climate change in Japan, we estimate beach loss damage costs in Japan and in each prefecture and evaluate the economic effectiveness of hypothetical adaptation measures to restore sandy beaches. For analyses, we use a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) that integrates a utility function with environmental quality factors as an independent variable derived from a recreation demand function in a travel cost method (TCM). We use future projections of beach loss rates in 2081–2100 based on ensemble-mean regional sea-level rise (SLR) for four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The main findings of our study are presented as follows. (1) In 2081–2100, beach loss damage costs were estimated respectively as 398.54 million USD per year for RCP2.6, 468.96 (m.USD/year) for RCP4.5, 494.09 (m.USD/year) for RCP6.0, and 654.63 (m.USD/year) for RCP8.5. (2) For all RCPs, six prefectures for which the cost–benefit ratio exceeds 1.0 were Kanagawa, Osaka, Hyogo, Hiroshima, Saga, and Kumamoto. Our hypothetical adaptation measure of an artificial beach enhancement is expected to be quite effective as a public works project in these prefectures.

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