scholarly journals Climate, disaster and risk: introduction

2021 ◽  
Vol 9s8 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Simon Goldhill ◽  
Georgie Fitzgibbon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Climate Disasters ◽  
Climate Disaster

This special issue focuses on the intersections of climate, disasters, and development. The research presented here is designed to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making, and promote sustainable development by maximising the beneficial impacts of responses to climate change and minimising negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.

scholarly journals Drought Risk Analysis, Forecasting and Assessment under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tae-Woong Kim ◽  
Muhammad Jehanzaib
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Meteorological Modeling

Climate change is undoubtedly one of the world’s biggest challenges in the 21st century. Drought risk analysis, forecasting and assessment are facing rapid expansion, not only from theoretical but also practical points of view. Accurate monitoring, forecasting and comprehensive assessments are of the utmost importance for reliable drought-related decision-making. The framework of drought risk analysis provides a unified and coherent approach to solving inference and decision-making problems under uncertainty due to climate change, such as hydro-meteorological modeling, drought frequency estimation, hybrid models of forecasting and water resource management. This Special Issue will provide researchers with a summary of the latest drought research developments in order to identify and understand the profound impacts of climate change on drought risks and water resources. The ten peer-reviewed articles collected in this Special Issue present novel drought monitoring and forecasting approaches, unique methods for drought risk estimation and creative frameworks for environmental change assessment. These articles will serve as valuable references for future drought-related disaster mitigations, climate change interconnections and food productivity impacts.

scholarly journals Forest succession, management and the economy under a changing climate: coupling economic and forest management models to assess impacts and adaptation options

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Van Lantz ◽  
Galen McMonagle ◽  
Chris Hennigar ◽  
Chinmay Sharma ◽  
Patrick Withey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Forest Succession ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Timber Supply ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Options

Abstract Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on forests by affecting the successional dynamics of tree species and the performance of plantations, among others. Research is needed to better understand how these factors will affect forests and economies in different regions, and how we can best adapt. To shed some light on these issues, we couple an economic (Computable General Equilibrium) model with a forest management (Woodstock) model to analyze the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options on timber supply and the economy over the 2015-95 period in a case-study province of New Brunswick, Canada. We estimate that climate change may have relatively large negative impacts on softwood timber supply (at 26% by 2095), softwood forestry & logging sector output quantity (at 12% by 2095), and softwood-dependent forestry manufacturing sector output (ranging from 6% to 27% by 2095). Negative impacts on GDP may be relatively smaller (at up to a 0.33% reduction by 2095). Adapting to these climate-related changes by planting drought-resistant softwood seedlings or hardwood seedlings in place of failed softwood plantations can reduce these negative impacts. While the former adaptation option is supported using cost-benefit analysis, the latter is not – due to the large incremental costs of growing, planting, and tending hardwood seedlings. Methods developed in this study can be applied in other regions to help guide decision-making around forest management in the face of a changing climate.

scholarly journals Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change: Adaptation and Resilience Strategies for Sustainable Development in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Negative Impacts

Nigeria faces inexorable climate change in recent times. This phenomenon will have a profound effect on the long-term sustainable socio-economic development and is also likely to jeopardize achievement of economic development of the country. All economic and social sectors will be adversely affected. The water resources sector is one that will be strongly impacted by climate change. Against a background of increasing demand for potable water, sea-level rise may lead to flooding of lowlands and seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers, while variability in climate may see more intense rainstorms resulting both in increased run-off leading to increased flooding and reduced recharge leading to aquifer depletion. Such impacts are already having negative ripple effects on other vital aspects of the economy such as the tourism, recreational, agricultural and industrial sectors. Unfortunately, adequate management of water resources in Nigeria is sorely lacking. Extensive studies to quantify the likely impacts of future climate change and climate variability on water resources in Nigeria are not available. In many cases, baseline data which may be used to track changes are sparse or non-existent. The impacts of climate change and economic value of water resources will form the basis for the development of adaptation strategies with regards to the sustainable management of regional and national water resources. This paper therefore explores the probable effect climate change will have on water resources in Nigeria, the fall-out from these effects and strategies for mitigating potential negative impacts for sustainable development.

scholarly journals Introduction to a special issue entitled Perspectives on Implementing Benefit-Cost Analysis in Climate Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (03) ◽  
pp. 333-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fran Sussman ◽  
Anne Grambsch ◽  
Jia Li ◽  
Christopher P. Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Benefit Cost Analysis ◽  
Benefit Cost

Abstract:Over the past half-century or more, economists have developed a robust literature on the theory and practice of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) as applied to diverse projects and policies. Recent years have seen a growing demand for practical applications of BCA to climate change policy questions. As economists seek to meet this demand, they face challenges that arise from the nature of climate change impacts, such as the long time frame and the potential for non-marginal changes, the importance of intangible effects, and the need to grapple with Knightian uncertainty. As a result of these and other characteristics of climate change, many of the fundamental tenets of BCA are coming under scrutiny and the limits of BCA’s methodological and practical boundaries are being tested. This special issue assembles a set of papers that review the growing body of literature on the economics of climate change. The papers describe the state of the literature valuing climate change impacts, both globally and at more disaggregated levels. The papers also discuss the challenges economists face in applying BCA to support climate change decision making and adaptation planning. This introduction provides background and context on the current use of BCA in climate change analysis, and sets each paper firmly in that context, identifying also areas for future research. While the challenges in conducting BCA and interpreting its results are significant, across the papers it becomes clear that economic analysis in general, and the tools and methods of BCA in particular, have a central role to play in supporting decision-making about how to respond to climate change.

A Machine Learning Sustainable Development Goals Model for Water Resources Serious Gaming. Case Study:  Combeima River, Colombia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Viviana Garzon Useche ◽  
Karel Aldrin Sánchez Hernández ◽  
Gerald Augusto Corzo Pérez ◽  
German Ricardo Santos Granados
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
Mobile App ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Development Goals

<p>The importance of knowing and representing rural and urban development in water management is vital for its sustainability.  An essential part of the management required that stakeholders are more aware of the consequences of decisions and in some way, can link decisions towards sustainability.  For this, a mobile app serious game called Water Citizens has been proposed as knowledge dissemination and to provide a better understanding of the way decisions affect Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A complex model of a pilot region (Combeima in Ibague, Colombia) has been developed, and the model results are few into equations to estimate fluctuations of SDGs in the region. Running this complex model in real-time, for a mobile application, requires an extensive high-performance computing system linked to large and complex network setup. To solve this problem, a fast yet accurate surrogate model is proposed.</p><p>Therefore, this study contemplates an analysis of methods to forecast sustainable development indicators evaluated through climate change scenarios for a period between 1989-2039. The proposed scenarios associated the public health, livestock, agriculture, engineering, education and environment sectors with climate variables, climate change projections, land cover and land use, water demands (domestic, agricultural and livestock) and water quality (BOD and TSS). Generating the possibility that each player can make decisions that represent the actions that affect or contribute to the demand, availability and quality of water in the region.</p><p>Consequently, a set of indicators were selected to recreate the dimensions of each sector and reflect its relationship with the Sustainable Development Objectives, as opposed to the decisions made by each player. In addition, three categories were considered for the levels of sustainability: low (0.0 - 0.33), medium (0.34 - 0.66) and high (0.67 - 1.0) for the calculated SDG values. </p><p>Self-learning techniques have been employed in the analysis of decision-making problems. In this study, the nearest K neighbours (k-NN) and a multilayer perceptron network (MLP) were used. Through an analysis based on the responses of the players and sustainability indexes, a multiple correlation analysis was developed in order to consolidate the learning dataset, which was randomly partitioned in proportions 0.7 and 0.3 for the training and test subsets respectively. Subsequently, the model fit and performance was carried out, analysing the MSE error metric and confusion matrix.</p><p>Finally, the results of this study will allow to determine the potential of supervised learning models as a decision-making tool for the evaluation of sustainable development, as well as to obtain a better abstraction and representation of the water resource to the challenges related to climate adaptation and water sustainability measures of citizen action, besides generating new approaches for the use of artificial intelligence in land use planning and climate adaptation processes.</p>

IPCC AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT: TOWARD THE THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT

2000 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. 249-262
Author(s):  
JARO MAYDA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
The Third ◽  
International Panel ◽  
Third Assessment Report ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
Local Levels

In preparing the Third Assessment Report (due in 2001), the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was also assigned the task of assessing "methodological aspects of cross-cutting issues such as equity, discount rates, and decision making frameworks". The article analyses the task; points out the gaps in IPCC's past approaches to policy and decision making methodologies; and outlines elements of a paradigm that effectively bridges science and decision making, especially in the area of applying IPCC's global policies on the national and local levels, within the ultimate goal of sustainable development.

Discussion on Low Carbon Economy

2014 ◽  
Vol 1010-1012 ◽  
pp. 2063-2066
Author(s):  
An Wang ◽  
Xiang Qing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
International Society ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Peaceful Rise ◽  
Low Carbon Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Climate Disasters ◽  
Carbon Economy ◽  
Challenges And Strategies

In recent years, severe climate disasters around the world have become increasingly frequent, so climate change has become the foucus of international society and sustainable development has become the hot topic again. To copy with climate change, all countries have reached consensus on the development of low carbon economy. Developing low carbon economy is the necessary choice for Chia to be a big responsible country and realize peaceful rise and sustainable development. On the basis of the connotation and characteristics of low carbon economy, the paper focuses on the challenges and strategies of low-carbon economy development.

Issue-linkages to Climate Change Measured through NGO Participation in the UNFCCC

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 10-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miquel Muñoz Cabré
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Higher Education ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
United Nations ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
United Nations Framework Convention ◽  
Civil Society Participation

NGOs comprise over half the cumulative number of delegates attending the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) for the 1995–2009 period. These NGOs represent a wide array of issues, including sustainable development, business, and higher education, to name just a few. Based on UNFCCC publicly available participation statistics, this article analyzes NGO participation from a quantitative issue-based perspective, and compares the results with the relevant conclusions drawn by the other contributors to this special issue. The findings of this analysis confirm informed expectations about issue-driven NGO participation. In particular, three main findings are that: (1) environment and conservation, academic, business, and energy NGOs dominate civil society participation in the UNFCCC; (2) UNFCCC constituencies do not adequately capture the range of issues addressed by observer NGOs; and (3) since 2007, NGO participation has sig-nificantly increased and diversified.

scholarly journals An Exercise on Data-Based Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 (8) ◽  
pp. 522-528
Author(s):  
Florian Fiebelkorn ◽  
Nils Puchert ◽  
Aaron T. Dossey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Everyday Life ◽  
Socioscientific Issues ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Complex World ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Data Based Decision Making

The ability to make criteria-based and thought-out decisions in everyday life as well as to answer questions pertaining to society at large, such as those regarding climate change and the loss of biodiversity, is becoming more and more important against the backdrop of an increasingly complex world with a wide range of options for action or inaction. Using the method of “data-based decision making,” this article presents a decision-making strategy for improving the evaluation competence of students that is particularly suitable for teaching socioscientific issues in the context of sustainable development. Using the example of human consumption of insects (sometimes termed “entomophagy,” although this term is defined as the consumption of insects by any organism), the students will evaluate the potential for insects as an alternative, sustainable source of protein as compared with conventional meat.

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