scholarly journals A Discussion on Sea Level Rise, Rate Ad Acceleration. Venice as a Case Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Camuffo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Dynamic Condition ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Constant Acceleration ◽  
Rise Rate ◽  
Order Polynomial ◽  
Physical Consequences ◽  
Business As Usual

Abstract The paper discusses the equations used to represent the sea level rise, and in particular the second-order polynomial, generally preferred because its second-order coefficient is related to acceleration. The long series of the sea level rise in Venice offers a particularly useful case study from 1350 to 2016, because it may be equally represented, at the same level of explained variance, by an exponential or a quadratic best-fit equation. The first-order and the second-order derivatives respectively represent the rate and the acceleration of sea level rise. The derivatives obtained from the second-order polynomial representation generate a linear rate and a constant acceleration, while those derived from an exponential preserve the exponential character. The two rates (i.e. from the quadratic and the exponential equations), and the two accelerations are characterized by different equations and different plots, but their average values are the same. The second-order polynomial with constant acceleration is in line with a climate with constant forcing factors; the exponential with a dynamic condition with increasing forcing factors and acceleration. Mathematical formulae and physical consequences are discussed in the framework of different scenarios. Finally, the trend-forecast extrapolation is discussed and applied to the case study of Venice. It is shown that, in the most optimistic assumption of forcing increasing at unchanged rate, the sea level in Venice will rise by 33.8 ± 4 cm over this century, that may be compared to the 31 cm of the similar, most optimistic prediction made by IPCC for business-as-usual.

scholarly journals A Holistic Framework for Evaluating Adaptation Approaches to Coastal Hazards and Sea Level Rise: A Case Study from Imperial Beach, California

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1324
Author(s):  
David Revell ◽  
Phil King ◽  
Jeff Giliam ◽  
Juliano Calil ◽  
Sarah Jenkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Over Time

Sea level rise increases community risks from erosion, wave flooding, and tides. Current management typically protects existing development and infrastructure with coastal armoring. These practices ignore long-term impacts to public trust coastal recreation and natural ecosystems. This adaptation framework models physical responses to the public beach and private upland for each adaptation strategy over time, linking physical changes in widths to damages, economic costs, and benefits from beach recreation and nature using low-lying Imperial Beach, California, as a case study. Available coastal hazard models identified community vulnerabilities, and local risk communication engagement prioritized five adaptation approaches—armoring, nourishment, living shorelines, groins, and managed retreat. This framework innovates using replacement cost as a proxy for ecosystem services normally not valued and examines a managed retreat policy approach using a public buyout and rent-back option. Specific methods and economic values used in the analysis need more research and innovation, but the framework provides a scalable methodology to guide coastal adaptation planning everywhere. Case study results suggest that coastal armoring provides the least public benefits over time. Living shoreline approaches show greater public benefits, while managed retreat, implemented sooner, provides the best long-term adaptation strategy to protect community identity and public trust resources.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Denmark: A Case Study of Falster Island, Guldborgsund

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7503
Author(s):  
Alexander Boest-Petersen ◽  
Piotr Michalak ◽  
Jamal Jokar Arsanjani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Local Levels

Anthropogenically-induced climate change is expected to be the contributing cause of sea level rise and severe storm events in the immediate future. While Danish authorities have downscaled the future oscillation of sea level rise across Danish coast lines in order to empower the coastal municipalities, there is a need to project the local cascading effects on different sectors. Using geospatial analysis and climate change projection data, we developed a proposed workflow to analyze the impacts of sea level rise in the coastal municipalities of Guldborgsund, located in Southeastern Denmark as a case study. With current estimates of sea level rise and storm surge events, the island of Falster can expect to have up to 19% of its landmass inundated, with approximately 39% of the population experiencing sea level rise directly. Developing an analytical workflow can allow stakeholders to understand the extent of expected sea level rise and consider alternative methods of prevention at the national and local levels. The proposed approach along with the choice of data and open source tools can empower other communities at risk of sea level rise to plan their adaptation.

Wave farm impacts on coastal flooding under sea-level rise: A case study in southern Spain

2019 ◽  
Vol 653 ◽  
pp. 1522-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael J. Bergillos ◽  
Cristobal Rodriguez-Delgado ◽  
Gregorio Iglesias
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Southern Spain ◽  
Wave Farm

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. e0182605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tammy E. Foster ◽  
Eric D. Stolen ◽  
Carlton R. Hall ◽  
Ronald Schaub ◽  
Brean W. Duncan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Barrier Island ◽  
Community Responses ◽  
Vegetation Community

scholarly journals Impact Assessment and Management Challenges of Key Rural Human Health Infrastructure Under Sea Level Rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Mitchell ◽  
Robert E. Isdell ◽  
Julie Herman ◽  
Christine Tombleson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Septic Systems ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
Wide Scale ◽  
Economic Assets

Accelerating sea level rise in Virginia, United States, will significantly increase the flooding threat to low-lying roads, residences, and critical infrastructure as well as raise the water table, allowing saltwater intrusion into well water and threatening the function of septic fields. Although most of the adaptation work in Virginia has focused on urban economic centers, the majority of the coastline is rural and faces different threats and opportunities to address them compared to urban areas due to their reduced economic assets and their reliance on private infrastructure. In this case study, we assess the potential for geospatially quantifying impact to septic systems and adjacent water ways due to sea level rise. The case study found that the data necessary to reliably quantify these impacts on a state-wide scale are lacking and collection of that information needs to be prioritized given the potential for extensive sea level impacts.

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