scholarly journals Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure with Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengcheng Sheng ◽  
Zongxu Xu ◽  
Jun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Organ Failure ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Concordance Index ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
In Pregnancy

Abstract Background: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with persistent organ failure (POF) poses a high risk of death for mother and fetus. This study sought to create a nomogram model for early prediction of POF with APIP patients.Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study on APIP patients with organ failure (OF) between January 2012 and March 2021 in a university hospital. 131 patients were collected. Their clinical courses and pregnancy outcomes were obtained. Risk factors for POF were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Prediction models with POF were built and nomogram was plotted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots.Results: Hypertriglyceridemia was the most common etiology in this group of APIP patients, which accounted for 50% of transient organ failure (TOF) and 72.3% of POF. All in-hospital maternal death was in the POF group (P<0.05), which also had a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate than the TOF group (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis determined that lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were independent risk factors for predicting POF in APIP. A nomogram for POF was created by using the four indicators. The area under the curve was 0.875 (95% confidence interval 0.80–0.95). The nomogram had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.85 and was well-calibrated.Conclusions: Hypertriglyceridemia was the leading cause of organ failure-related APIP. Lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were the independent risk factors of POF in APIP. Our nomogram model showed an effective prediction of POF with the four indicators in APIP patients.

scholarly journals Diabetes and Younger Age Are Vital and Independent Risk Factors for Acute Pancreatitis in Patients with Severe Hypertriglyceridemia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Qiang Li ◽  
Chaoqun Hou ◽  
Yunpeng Peng ◽  
Xiaole Zhu ◽  
Chenyuan Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Severe Hypertriglyceridemia ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Background. The incidence of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HIAP) is increasing worldwide, and now it is the third leading cause of acute pancreatitis in the United States. But, there are only 5% of patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia (>1000 mg/dl) which might generate acute pancreatitis. In order to explore which part of the patients is easy to develop into pancreatitis, a case-control study was performed by us to consider which patient population tend to develop acute pancreatitis in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. To perform a retrospective case-control study, we identified severe hypertriglyceridemia patients without AP (HNAP) and with HIAP with a fasting triglyceride level of >1000 mg/dl from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University during January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2016. Baseline patient characteristics, comorbidities, and risk factors were recorded and evaluated by the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis for HIAP and HNAP patients. A total of 124 patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia were included in this study; of which, 62 patients were in the HIAP group and 62 were in the HNAP group. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that there was no gender difference in both groups; however, there were more younger patients in the HIAP group than in the HNAP group (P value < 0.001), and the HIAP group had low level of high-density lipoprotein compared to the HNAP group (P<0.05). Meanwhile, the presence of pancreatitis was associated with higher level of glycemia and a history of diabetes (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that a history of diabetes and younger age were independent risk factors for acute pancreatitis in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. Uncontrolled diabetes and younger age are potential risk factors in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia to develop acute pancreatitis.

scholarly journals Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Mortality in Acute Fatty Liver of Pregnancy and New Predictive Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaoli Meng ◽  
Wei Fang ◽  
Mei Meng ◽  
Jicheng Zhang ◽  
Qizhi Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Maternal Mortality ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Fetal Mortality ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Acute Fatty Liver ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is a rare but potentially life-threatening hepatic disorder that leads to considerable maternal and fetal mortality. To explore the risk factors for maternal and fetal mortality in AFLP and develop new predictive models, through this retrospective study, we analyzed the demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms, and laboratory findings of 106 patients with AFLP who were admitted to Shandong Provincial Hospital. Risk factors for maternal and fetal mortality were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The new models based on the multivariate logistic regression analysis and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) were tested in AFLP. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was applied to compare the predictive efficiency, sensitivity, and specificity of the two models. Prenatal nausea (p = 0.037), prolonged prothrombin time (p = 0.003), and elevated serum creatinine (p = 0.003) were independent risk factors for maternal mortality. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the MELD was 0.948, with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 83.3%. The AUC of the new model for maternal mortality was 0.926, with a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 94.8%. Hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.016) and thrombocytopenia (p = 0.001) were independent risk factors for fetal mortality. Using the ROC curve, the AUC of the MELD was 0.694, yielding a sensitivity of 68.8% and a specificity of 64.4%. The AUC of the new model for fetal mortality was 0.893, yielding a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 73.3%. Both the new predictive model for maternal mortality and the MELD showed good predictive efficacy for maternal mortality in patients with AFLP (AUC = 0.926 and 0.948, respectively), and the new predictive model for fetal mortality was superior to the MELD in predicting fetal mortality (AUC = 0.893 and 0.694, respectively). The two new predictive models were more readily available, less expensive, and easier to implement clinically, especially in low-income countries.

scholarly journals Analysis of Risk Factors For Sepsis And Indicators of Prognosis In Patients With Sepsis: A Retrospective Observational Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huifeng Wang ◽  
Zhiling Zhao ◽  
Zhao-hui Tong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Albumin Level ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Apache Ii Score ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background: To investigate the independent risk factors for sepsis and the prognostic indicators of sepsis-related mortality to guide clinical practice.Methods: Adult patients diagnosed with sepsis in the respiratory intensive care unit (RICU), emergency ICU (EICU), and surgical ICU (SICU) of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, from January 2016 to April 2021 were enrolled. Comorbidities, complications, and laboratory indicators were retrospectively analyzed. Variables with a p value < 0.05 in the univariate analysis were entered into multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the independent risk factors for sepsis. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used for those variables with P < 0.05 in multivariate regression to evaluate the fit of the predictive model and its prognostic efficacy. Results: A total of 123 adult patients with sepsis were enrolled, with 80 males and 43 females and a mean age of 61.56 ± 17.12 years. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) occurred in 84 patients (68.3%), acute kidney injury (AKI) occurred in 28 patients (22.8%), acute myocardial injury (AMI) occurred in 6 patients (4.9%), disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) occurred in 14 patients (11.4%), septic shock occurred in 40 patients (32.5%), and 41 patients (33.3%) died. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that mean arterial pressure (MAP), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, albumin level, and the presence of DIC were independent risk factors for sepsis (P < 0.05). The area under the ROC curve for the model including MAP, albumin, and APACHE II score was the highest at 0.890.Conclusion: The MAP, APACHE II score, albumin level, and DIC were independent risk factors for sepsis. The inclusion of the MAP, albumin level, and APACHE II score in the model yielded the most accurate prediction of the risk of mortality.

Risk Factors for Wound Infection in Outpatients With Lower Extremity Burns

2020 ◽  
pp. 000313482095238
Author(s):  
Husayn A. Ladhani ◽  
Brian T. Young ◽  
Sarah E. Posillico ◽  
Charles J. Yowler ◽  
Christopher P. Brandt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Lower Extremity ◽  
Wound Infection ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Total Body Surface Area ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Background We sought to evaluate risk factors for wound infection in patients with lower extremity (LE) burn. Methods Adults presenting with LE burn from January 2014 to July 2015 were included. Data regarding demographics, injury characteristics, and outcomes were obtained. The primary outcome was wound infection. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for wound infection. Results 317 patients were included with a mean age of 43 years and median total body surface area of .8%; 22 (7%) patients had a component of full-thickness (FT) burn; and 212 (67%) patients had below-the-knee (BTK) burn. The incidence of wound infection was 15%. The median time to infection was 5 days, and majority (61%) of the patients developed wound infection by day 5. Patients who developed wound infection were more likely to have an FT burn (22% vs. 5%, P < .001) and BTK burn (87% vs. 64%, P = .002), without a difference in other variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed age (Odds ratio (OR) 1.02 and CI 1.00-1.04), presence of FT burn (OR 5.33 and CI 2.09-13.62), and BTK burn (OR 3.42 and CI 1.37-8.52) as independent risk factors for wound infection (area under the curve = .72). Conclusion Age, presence of FT burn, and BTK burn are independent risk factors for wound infection in outpatients with LE burns.

scholarly journals Diagnostic Utility of Combined 2D Ultrasonography and Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasonography in Evaluation of Carotid Plaque Vulnerability for Predicting Recurrent Ischemic Strokes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuyong Ye ◽  
Yuwen Yang ◽  
Yinting Liang ◽  
Jianhua Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Contrast Enhanced ◽  
Contrast Enhanced Ultrasonography ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Objective: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of combined 2D ultrasonography (USG) and contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) in analyzing the carotid plaque vulnerability for predicting the recurrent ischemic strokes (IS). Methods: One hundred and fifteen patients with first IS were studied by 2D USG and CEUS. The carotid plaques were then classified on the basis of echogenicity (2D USG) and neovascularization (CEUS). The presence or absence of recurrent IS was considered as the dependent variable. Age, gender, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, history of smoking and drinking, type of plaque echogenicity, and grade of plaque neovascularization were considered as independent variables. The risk factors of recurrent IS were analyzed by both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Finally, the sensitivity and specificity of combined 2D USG and CEUS in the diagnosis of recurrent IS was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed that hypertension, echogenicity type, and grade of plaque neovascularization were predictors of recurrent IS. Further, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the echogenicity type (OR=0.282, P=0.012) and grade of plaque neovascularization (OR=7.408, P<0.0001) were independent risk factors for recurrent IS. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve of combined method were 0.865, 0.769, and 0.817, respectively (95%CI: 0.733-0.902, P<0.0001), which were higher than both 2D USG and CEUS.Conclusions: The echogenicity type and grade of plaque neovascularization are independent risk factors for recurrent IS. The combination of two methods has high sensitivity and specificity in predicting the recurrent IS.

scholarly journals Risk factors for tissue expander infection in scar reconstruction: a retrospective cohort study of 2374 consecutive cases

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Dong ◽  
Minhui Zhu ◽  
Luguang Huang ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Hengxin Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Treatment Failure ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Disease Duration ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Tissue Expansion ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Hematoma Evacuation

Abstract Background Tissue expansion is used for scar reconstruction owing to its excellent clinical outcomes; however, the complications that emerge from tissue expansion hinder repair. Infection is considered a major complication of tissue expansion. This study aimed to analyze the perioperative risk factors for expander infection. Methods A large, retrospective, single-institution observational study was carried out over a 10-year period. The study enrolled consecutive patients who had undergone tissue expansion for scar reconstruction. Demographics, etiological data, expander-related characteristics and postoperative infection were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify risk factors for expander infection. In addition, we conducted a sensitivity analysis for treatment failure caused by infection as an outcome. Results A total of 2374 expanders and 148 cases of expander infection were assessed. Treatment failure caused by infection occurred in 14 expanders. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that disease duration of ≤1 year (odds ratio (OR), 2.07; p &lt; 0.001), larger volume of expander (200–400 ml vs &lt;200 ml; OR, 1.74; p = 0.032; &gt;400 ml vs &lt;200 ml; OR, 1.76; p = 0.049), limb location (OR, 2.22; p = 0.023) and hematoma evacuation (OR, 2.17; p = 0.049) were associated with a high likelihood of expander infection. Disease duration of ≤1 year (OR, 3.88; p = 0.015) and hematoma evacuation (OR, 10.35; p = 0.001) were so related to high risk of treatment failure. Conclusions The rate of expander infection in patients undergoing scar reconstruction was 6.2%. Disease duration of &lt;1 year, expander volume of &gt;200 ml, limb location and postoperative hematoma evacuation were independent risk factors for expander infection.

scholarly journals Predictive risk factors for worse outcomes in COVID-19 patients with different clinical features at baseline

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabetta Schiaroli ◽  
Anna Gidari ◽  
Giovanni Brachelente ◽  
Sabrina Bastianelli ◽  
Alfredo Villa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Critical Illness ◽  
Serum Ferritin ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio

IntroductionCOVID-19 is characterized by a wide range of clinical expression and by possible progression to critical illness and death. Therefore it is essential to identify risk factors predicting progression towards serious and fatal diseases. The aim of our study was to identify laboratory predictive markers of clinical progression in patients with moderate/severe disease and in those with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).Material and methodsUsing electronic medical records for all demographic, clinical and laboratory data, a retrospective study on all consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Infectious Disease Clinic of Perugia was performed. The PaO2/FiO2 ratio (P/F) assessment cut‑off of 200 mm Hg was used at baseline to categorize the patients into two clinical groups. The progression towards invasive ventilation and/or death was used to identify critical outcome. Statistical analysis was performed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was adopted to identify risk factors of critical illness and mortality.ResultsIn multivariate logistic regression analysis neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was the only significant predictive factor of progression to a critical outcome (p = 0.03) and of in-hospital mortality (p = 0.03). In ARDS patients no factors were associated with critical progression. Serum ferritin > 1006 ng/ml was the only predictive value of critical outcome in COVID-19 subjects with moderate/severe disease (p = 0.02).ConclusionsNeutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and serum ferritin are the only biomarkers that can help to stratify the risk of severity and mortality in patients with COVID-19.

scholarly journals Factors associated with depression in the patients with diabetes mellitus type 2

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (11) ◽  
pp. 1178-1183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Admir Sabanovic ◽  
Natasa Maksimovic ◽  
Mirjana Stojanovic-Tasic ◽  
Marijan Bakic ◽  
Anita Grgurevic
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Factors Associated

Background/Aim. The assessment of association of depression and diabetes mellitus type 2 using the Patient Health Questionaire (PHQ-9) has not been done in Montenegro. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of depression in the patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and to identify the risk factors associated with the presence of depression. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted at the General Hospital in Bijelo Polje, from July to September, 2015. It included 70 patients over 35 years of age with the diagnosis of diabetes for at least six months. For the assessment of depression presence and intensity PHQ?9 was used. All variables associated with the presence of depression at a significance level of p < 0.05 were included into the final method of the multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results. Comorbidities were statistically significant more frequent among patients with depression (?2 = 5.40; p = 0.020). Duration of diabetes over five years was significantly associated with depression (?2 = 12.48; p < 0.001). Depression occurred more frequently among physically inactive subjects (?2 = 10.74; p = 0.005). The presence of diabetic polyneuropathy (?2 = 6.04; p = 0.014) and cataract (?2 = 5.351; p = 0.021) were also significantly associated with depression. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of diabetes over five years and presence of cataract were independently associated with depression. Conclusion. The risk factors for depression among the subjects with diabetes were disease duration more than five years and the presence of cataract. Since depression is a serious disease and can be a risk factor for many chronic diseases, the best way of prevention is its early detection and treatment.

scholarly journals Risk factors affecting the 1-year outcomes of minor ischemic stroke: results from Xi’an stroke registry study of China[1]

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongzhong Liu ◽  
Wenjuan Lin ◽  
Qingli Lu ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
Pei Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Stroke Recurrence ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Nihss Score ◽  
Minor Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background: The incidences of stroke recurrence, disability, and all-cause death of patients with minor ischemic stroke (MIS) remain problematic. The aim of the present was to identify risk factors associated with adverse outcomes at 1-year after MIS in the Xi’an region of China. Methods: The cohort of this prospective cohort study included MIS patients aged 18–97 years with a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score of ≤ 3 who were treated in any of four hospitals in Xi’an region of China between January and December 2015. The 1-year percentage of stroke recurrence, disability, and all-cause death were evaluated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between the identified risk factors and clinical outcomes. Results: Among the 1,121 patients included for analysis, the percentage of stroke recurrence, disability, and all-cause death at 1 year after MIS were 3.4% (38/1121), 9.3% (104/1121), and 3.3% (37/1121), respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified age, current smoking, and pneumonia as independent risk factors for stroke recurrence. Age, pneumonia, and alkaline phosphatase were independent risk factors for all-cause death. Independent risk factors for disability were age, pneumonia, NIHSS score on admission, and leukocyte count. Conclusions: The 1-year outcomes of MIS is not optimistic in the Xi’an region of China, especially high percentage of disability. In this study, we found the risk factors affecting 1-year stroke recurrence, disability and, all-cause death which need further verification in the subsequent studies.

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