Nomogram for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure with Acute Pancreatitis in Pregnancy

Background: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP) with persistent organ failure (POF) poses a high risk of death for mother and fetus. This study sought to create a nomogram model for early prediction of POF with APIP patients.Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study on APIP patients with organ failure (OF) between January 2012 and March 2021 in a university hospital. 131 patients were collected. Their clinical courses and pregnancy outcomes were obtained. Risk factors for POF were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Prediction models with POF were built and nomogram was plotted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots.Results: Hypertriglyceridemia was the most common etiology in this group of APIP patients, which accounted for 50% of transient organ failure (TOF) and 72.3% of POF. All in-hospital maternal death was in the POF group (P<0.05), which also had a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate than the TOF group (P<0.05). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis determined that lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were independent risk factors for predicting POF in APIP. A nomogram for POF was created by using the four indicators. The area under the curve was 0.875 (95% confidence interval 0.80–0.95). The nomogram had a bootstrapped-concordance index of 0.85 and was well-calibrated.Conclusions: Hypertriglyceridemia was the leading cause of organ failure-related APIP. Lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin were the independent risk factors of POF in APIP. Our nomogram model showed an effective prediction of POF with the four indicators in APIP patients.

ECM–Receptor Regulatory Network and Its Prognostic Role in Colorectal Cancer

Interactions of the extracellular matrix (ECM) and cellular receptors constitute one of the crucial pathways involved in colorectal cancer progression and metastasis. With the use of bioinformatics analysis, we comprehensively evaluated the prognostic information concentrated in the genes from this pathway. First, we constructed a ECM–receptor regulatory network by integrating the transcription factor (TF) and 5’-isomiR interaction databases with mRNA/miRNA-seq data from The Cancer Genome Atlas Colon Adenocarcinoma (TCGA-COAD). Notably, one-third of interactions mediated by 5’-isomiRs was represented by noncanonical isomiRs (isomiRs, whose 5’-end sequence did not match with the canonical miRBase version). Then, exhaustive search-based feature selection was used to fit prognostic signatures composed of nodes from the network for overall survival prediction. Two reliable prognostic signatures were identified and validated on the independent The Cancer Genome Atlas Rectum Adenocarcinoma (TCGA-READ) cohort. The first signature was made up by six genes, directly involved in ECM–receptor interaction: AGRN, DAG1, FN1, ITGA5, THBS3, and TNC (concordance index 0.61, logrank test p = 0.0164, 3-years ROC AUC = 0.68). The second hybrid signature was composed of three regulators: hsa-miR-32-5p, NR1H2, and SNAI1 (concordance index 0.64, logrank test p = 0.0229, 3-years ROC AUC = 0.71). While hsa-miR-32-5p exclusively regulated ECM-related genes (COL1A2 and ITGA5), NR1H2 and SNAI1 also targeted other pathways (adhesion, cell cycle, and cell division). Concordant distributions of the respective risk scores across four stages of colorectal cancer and adjacent normal mucosa additionally confirmed reliability of the models.

Which classification system defines best prognosis of mucinous neoplasms of the appendix with peritoneal dissemination: TNM vs PSOGI?

AimsSeveral classification systems are used for pseudomyxoma peritonei. The four-tiered classification system proposed by Peritoneal Surface Oncology Group International (PSOGI) and the two-tiered proposed by the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) result from evolution in terminology and pathological insight. The aim is to evaluate the impact of PSOGI and eighth edition of the AJCC classifications on survival.MethodsPathological slides were reviewed from a prospectively maintained database including patients treated with cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for an appendiceal mucinous neoplasm with peritoneal dissemination between January 2009 and December 2019. Patients were reclassified according to PSOGI and AJCC eighth edition criteria. Survival analysis evaluated the impact of each classification system on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) while the concordance-index evaluated their predictive power.Results95 patients were identified; 21.1% were reclassified as acellular mucin, 55.8% as low-grade mucinous carcinoma peritonei, 8.4% as high-grade MCP (HGMCP) and 14 as HGMCP with signet ring cells. Median OS was not reached, 5-year OS and DFS were 86.1% and 51.5%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed significant associations with OS (PSOGI: HR 10.2, p=0.039; AJCC: HR 7.7, p=0.002) and DFS (PSOGI: HR 12.7, p=0.001; AJCC: HR 3.7, p<0.001). The predictive capacity of both classification systems was unacceptable for OS and DFS (concordance-index values <0.7).ConclusionsBoth classification systems behaved similarly when stratifying our series into prognostic groups. The PSOGI classification provides better histopathological description, but histology alone is insufficient for adequate patient prognostication.

Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival After Surgical Resection For Retroperitoneal Leiomyosarcoma Patients

Aim: To develop a survival nomogram for patients with retroperitoneal leiomyosarcoma (RLMS) after surgery.Methods: 118 patients with RLMS after surgical resection at the General Surgery Department, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University were retrospectively analyzed. The nomogram was constructed based on COX regression model and discrimination was assessed using the concordance index (c-index). The predicted and actual survival was evaluated through calibration plots.Results: The c-index of the nomogram was 0.779 (95% CI, 0.659-0.898). The predicted and actual survival probabilities are in good agreement in all calibration curve.Conclusion: This study built the first survival nomogram for patients with surgical resected RLMS.

Supplementing Existing Societal Risk Models for Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement With Machine Learning for Improved Prediction

Background This study evaluated the role of supplementing Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models for surgical aortic valve replacement with machine learning (ML). Methods and Results Adults undergoing isolated surgical aortic valve replacement in the STS National Database between 2007 and 2017 were included. ML models for operative mortality and major morbidity were previously developed using extreme gradient boosting. Concordance and discordance in predicted risk between ML and STS models were defined using equal‐size tertile‐based thresholds of risk. Calibration metrics and discriminatory capability were compared between concordant and discordant patients. A total of 243 142 patients were included. Nearly all calibration metrics were improved in cases of concordance. Similarly, concordance indices improved substantially in cases of concordance for all models with the exception of deep sternal wound infection. The greatest improvements in concordant versus discordant cases were in renal failure: ML model (concordance index, 0.660 [95% CI, 0.632–0.687] discordant versus 0.808 [95% CI, 0.794–0.822] concordant) and STS model (concordance index, 0.573 [95% CI, 0.549–0.576] discordant versus 0.797 [95% CI, 0.782–0.811] concordant) (each P <0.001). Excluding deep sternal wound infection, the concordance indices ranged from 0.549 to 0.660 for discordant cases and 0.674 to 0.808 for concordant cases. Conclusions Supplementing ML models with existing STS models for surgical aortic valve replacement may have an important role in risk prediction and should be explored further. In particular, for the roughly 25% to 50% of patients demonstrating discordance in estimated risk between ML and STS, there appears to be a substantial decline in predictive performance suggesting vulnerability of the existing models in these patient subsets.

Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease

Objectives. Alcohol-related liver disease is an increasing public health burden in China, but there is a lack of models to predict its prognosis. This study established a nomogram for predicting the survival of Chinese patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). Methods. Hospitalized alcohol-related liver disease patients were retrospectively enrolled from 2015 to 2018 and followed up for 24 months to evaluate survival profiles. A total of 379 patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 265) and validation cohort (n = 114). Cox proportional hazard survival analysis identified survival factors of the patients in the training cohort. A nomogram was built and internally validated. Results. The 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 24-month survival rates for the training cohort were 82.6%, 81.1%, 74.3%, and 64.5%, respectively. The Cox analysis showed relapse ( P = 0.001 ), cirrhosis ( P = 0.044 ), liver cancer ( P < 0.001 ), and a model for end-stage liver diseases score of ≥21 ( P = 0.041 ) as independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was built, which predicted the survival of patients in the training cohort with a concordance index of 0.749 and in the internal validation cohort with a concordance index of 0.756. Conclusion. The long-term survival of Chinese alcohol-related liver disease patients was poor with a 24-month survival rate of 64.5%. Relapse, cirrhosis, liver cancer, and a model for end-stage liver disease score of ≥21 were independent risk factors for those patients. A nomogram was developed and internally validated for predicting the probability of their survival at different time points.

A Prediction Model of Extubation Failure Risk in Preterm Infants

Objectives: This study aimed to identify variables and develop a prediction model that could estimate extubation failure (EF) in preterm infants.Study Design: We enrolled 128 neonates as a training cohort and 58 neonates as a validation cohort. They were born between 2015 and 2020, had a gestational age between 250/7 and 296/7 weeks, and had been treated with mechanical ventilation through endotracheal intubation (MVEI) because of acute respiratory distress syndrome. In the training cohort, we performed univariate logistic regression analysis along with stepwise discriminant analysis to identify EF predictors. A monogram based on five predictors was built. The concordance index and calibration plot were used to assess the efficiency of the nomogram in the training and validation cohorts.Results: The results of this study identified a 5-min Apgar score, early-onset sepsis, hemoglobin before extubation, pH before extubation, and caffeine administration as independent risk factors that could be combined for accurate prediction of EF. The EF nomogram was created using these five predictors. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.824 (95% confidence interval 0.748–0.900). The concordance index in the training and validation cohorts was 0.824 and 0.797, respectively. The calibration plots showed high coherence between the predicted probability of EF and actual observation.Conclusions: This EF nomogram was a useful model for the precise prediction of EF risk in preterm infants who were between 250/7 and 296/7 weeks' gestational age and treated with MVEI because of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

A New Clinical Nomogram From the TCGA Database to Predict the Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background and AimHepatocellular carcinoma is a common malignant tumor of the digestive system with a poor prognosis. The high recurrence rate and metastasis after surgery reduce the survival time of patients. Therefore, assessing the overall survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy is critical to clinicians’ clinical decision-making. Conventional hepatocellular carcinoma assessment systems (such as tumor lymph node metastasis and Barcelona clinical hepatocellular carcinoma) are obviously insufficient in assessing the overall survival rate of patients. This research is devoted to the development of nomogram assessment tools to assess the overall survival probability of patients undergoing liver resection.MethodsWe collected the clinical and pathological information of 438 hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing surgery from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, then excluded 87 patients who did not meet inclusion criteria. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on patient characteristics and related pathological factors. Finally, we developed a nomogram model to predict patient’s prognosis.ResultsA retrospective analysis of 438 consecutive samples from the TCGA database of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent potentially curative liver resections. Six risk factors were included in the final model. In the training set, the discriminative ability of the nomogram was very good (concordance index = 0.944), and the external verification method (concordance index = 0.962) was used for verification. At the same time, the internal and external calibration of the model was verified, showing that the model was well calibrated. The calibration between the evaluation of the nomogram and the actual observations was good. According to the patient’s risk factors, we determined the patient’s Kaplan-Meyer survival analysis curve. Finally, the clinical decision curve was used to compare the benefits of two different models in evaluating patients’ clinical outcomes.ConclusionsThe nomogram can be used to evaluate the post-hepatectomy 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. The Kaplan-Meyer curve can intuitively display the survival differences among patients with various risk factors. The clinical decision curve is a good reference guide for clinical application.

External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Survival and Benefit of Concurrent Chemoradiation for Stage II Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

A nomogram was recently published by Sun et al. to predict overall survival (OS) and the additional benefit of concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) vs. radiotherapy (RT) alone, in stage II NPC treated with conventional RT. We aimed to assess the predictors of OS and to externally validate the nomogram in the IMRT era. We analyzed stage II NPC patients treated with definitive RT alone or CCRT between 2001 and 2011 under the territory-wide Hong Kong NPC Study Group 1301 study. Clinical parameters were studied using the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate OS. The nomogram by Sun et al. was applied with 1000 times bootstrap resampling to calculate the concordance index, and we compared the nomogram predicted and observed 5-year OS. There were 482 patients included. The 5-year OS was 89.0%. In the multivariable analysis, an age > 45 years was the only significant predictor of OS (HR, 1.98; 95%CI, 1.15–3.44). Other clinical parameters were insignificant, including the use of CCRT (HR, 0.99; 95%CI, 0.62–1.58). The nomogram yielded a concordance index of 0.55 (95% CI, 0.49–0.62) which lacked clinically meaningful discriminative power. The nomogram proposed by Sun et al. should be interpreted with caution when applied to stage II NPC patients in the IMRT era. The benefit of CCRT remained controversial.

iCOVID: interpretable deep learning framework for early recovery-time prediction of COVID-19 patients

Most prior studies focused on developing models for the severity or mortality prediction of COVID-19 patients. However, effective models for recovery-time prediction are still lacking. Here, we present a deep learning solution named iCOVID that can successfully predict the recovery-time of COVID-19 patients based on predefined treatment schemes and heterogeneous multimodal patient information collected within 48 hours after admission. Meanwhile, an interpretable mechanism termed FSR is integrated into iCOVID to reveal the features greatly affecting the prediction of each patient. Data from a total of 3008 patients were collected from three hospitals in Wuhan, China, for large-scale verification. The experiments demonstrate that iCOVID can achieve a time-dependent concordance index of 74.9% (95% CI: 73.6-76.3%) and an average day error of 4.4 days (95% CI: 4.2-4.6 days). Our study reveals that treatment schemes, age, symptoms, comorbidities, and biomarkers are highly related to recovery-time predictions.