Long-Term Exposure to PM2.5 and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence and Mortality in an Eastern Mediterranean Country: Findings based on a 15-Year Cohort Study
Abstract BackgroundEvidence concerning impact of long-term exposure to fine Particulate Matter<2.5 mm (PM2.5) on Cardio-Vascular Diseases (CVDs) for those people subject to ambient air pollution in developing countries remains quite scant. This study assessed the relationship of 15-year PM2.5 exposure and cardiovascular incidence and mortality rate in Isfahan province, Iran. MethodsThe cohort comprised 3081 participants over 35 years old and free of CVDs. They were selected through multi-stage cluster sampling in Isfahan, Iran. PM2.5 exposure for each individual was determined using satellite-based spatiotemporal estimates according to their residential addresses. CVD is defined here as fatal and non-fatal Acute Myocardial Infarctions (AMI) or stroke and sudden cardiac death. The risk of CVD incidence and mortality was calculated based on average PM2.5 exposure within a study period of 15 years using the Cox proportional hazard model upon adjusting individual risk factors. Annual averages of PM2.5 and the follow-up data of each residential area were combined. ResultsMean three-year PM2·5 exposure was 45.28 µg/m3 in the cohort, ranging from 20.01 to 69.80 µg/m3. The median follow-up was 12.3 years for the whole population. It is notable that 105 cardiovascular and 241 all-cause deaths occurred among 393,786 person months (27 and 61 per 100,000 person months, respectively). In well-adjusted models, 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 corresponded to a 4% increase in the incidence rate of CVDs [0.95 CI=1.022, 1.054] (given p=0.0000014 per 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, the Hazard Ratio (HR) for AMI was 1.073 [0.95 CI=1.029, 1.119] and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) was 1.052 [0.95 CI=1.034, 1.071]. No consistent association was found between PM2.5 concentration and CVD deaths (fatal AMI, fatal stroke, and SCD (Sudden Cardiac Death)).ConclusionsThe final results revealed that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 with high concentrations correlated with IHD incidence and its major subtypes positively, except for mortality. This finding supports the already found pieces of evidence that PM2.5 contributes to the high susceptibility of people in the eastern Mediterranean region to cardiovascular diseases after 15 years. The outcome accentuates the need for better air quality in many countries.