scholarly journals Climate change induced vulnerability and adaption for dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy Districts: The first detailed investigation in Sri Lanka

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.W.B.A.L. Udayanga ◽  
Nayana Gunathilaka ◽  
M.C.M. Iqbal ◽  
W. Abeyewickreme
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Medical Officer ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Municipal Council

Abstract Background: Assessing the vulnerability of an infectious disease such as dengue among endemic population is an important requirement to design proactive programmes in order to improve resilience capacity of vulnerable communities. Despite the significance in decision making process especially for rational resource allocation, the recognition of actual burden of dengue and the vulnerability towards dengue, has been limitedly addressed in many countries including Sri Lanka, due to deficiencies in a holistic methodology. Methods: A total of 42 variables (entomological, epidemiological, meteorological parameters, land-use practices and socio-demographic data) of all the 38 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in the districts of Colombo and Kandy were considered as candidate variables for a composite index based vulnerability assessment. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used in selecting and setting the weight for each indicator. Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability of all the MOH areas for dengue incidence were calculated. Results: Out of 42 candidate variables, only 23 parameters (Exposure Index: 6 variables; Sensitivity Index: 11 variables; Adaptive Capacity Index: 6 variables) were selected as indicators to assess climate change vulnerability to dengue. Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) MOH area denoted the highest values for exposure (0.89: exceptionally high exposure), sensitivity (0.86: exceptionally high sensitivity) in the district of Colombo, while Kandy Municipal Council (KMC) area reported the highest exposure (0.79: high exposure) and sensitivity (0.77: high sensitivity) in Kandy. Piliyandala MOH area denoted the highest level of adaptive capacity (0.66) in the district of Colombo followed by Menikhinna (0.68) in Kandy. The highest vulnerability (0.45: moderate vulnerability) to dengue was indicated from CMC and the lowest indicated from Galaha MOH (0.15; very low vulnerability) in Kandy. Interestingly the Kandy Municipal Council MOH area had a notable vulnerability of 0.41 (moderate vulnerability), which was the highest within Kandy. Conclusions: In general, vulnerability for dengue was relatively higher within the MOH areas of Colombo, than in Kandy, suggesting a higher degree of potential susceptibility to dengue within and among local communities of Colombo. The Vector Controlling Entities (VCE) are recommended to consider the spatial variations in vulnerability of local communities to dengue for decision making, especially in allocation of limited financial, human and mechanical resources for dengue epidemic management

scholarly journals Climate change induced vulnerability and adaption for dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy Districts: The first detailed investigation in Sri Lanka

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.W.B.A.L. Udayanga ◽  
Nayana Gunathilaka ◽  
M.C.M. Iqbal ◽  
W. Abeyewickreme
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Medical Officer ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Municipal Council

Abstract Background: Assessing the vulnerability of an infectious disease such as dengue among endemic population is an important requirement to design proactive programmes in order to improve resilience capacity of vulnerable communities. Despite the significance in decision making process especially for rational resource allocation, recognition of actual burden of dengue, the vulnerability of dengue has been limitedly addressed in many countries including Sri Lanka, due to some in a holistic methodology.Methods: A total of 42 variables (entomological, epidemiological, meteorological parameters, landuse practices and socio-demographic data) of all the 38 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in the districts of Colombo and Kandy were considered as candidate variables for composite index based vulnerability assessment. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used in selecting and setting the weight for each indicator. Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability of all the MOH areas for dengue incidence were calculated.Results: Out of 42 candidate variables, only 23 parameters (Exposure Index: 6 variables; Sensitivity Index: 11 variables; Adaptive Capacity Index: 6 variables) were selected as the indicators to assess climate change vulnerability to dengue. Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) MOH area denoted the highest values for exposure (0.89: exceptionally high exposure), sensitivity (0.86: exceptionally high sensitivity) in the district of Colombo, while Kandy Municipal Council (KMC) area reported the highest exposure (0.79: high exposure) and sensitivity (0.77: high sensitivity) in Kandy. Piliyandala MOH area denoted the highest level of adaptive capacity (0.66) in the district of Colombo followed by Menikhinna (0.68) in Kandy. The highest vulnerability (0.45: moderate vulnerability) to dengue was receded from CMC and the lowest indicated from Galaha MOH (0.15; very low vulnerability) in Kandy. Interestingly the Kandy Municipal Council MOH area had a notable vulnerability of 0.41 (moderate vulnerability), which remained the highest within Kandy.Conclusions: In general, vulnerability for dengue was relatively higher within the MOH areas of Colombo, than in Kandy, suggesting a higher degree of potential susceptibility to dengue within among local communities of Colombo. The VCE are recommended to consider the spatial variations in vulnerability of local communities to dengue for decision making, especially in allocation of limited financial, human and mechanical resources for dengue epidemic management.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KERENTANAN PERIKANAN TANGKAP AKIBAT PERUBAHAN IKLIM PADA SKALA PROVINSI (Province Scaled Fisheries Vulnerability on Climate Change)

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 223
Author(s):  
Allasay Kitsash Addifisyuka Cintra ◽  
Isdradjad Setyobudiandi ◽  
Achmad Fahrudin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Purposive Sampling

<p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong><strong></strong></p><p><em>Fisheries has significant roles for the Indonesian economy. Climate change influences Indonesian fisheries through a range of direct and indirect pathaway. A scientific based approach such as vulnerability is needed to determine the risks of climate change and adaptation strategies. Therefore, this study was conducted to analyze the vulnerability of fisheries to climate change on  province scaled in Indonesia. Vulnerability index (VI) is obtained with composite index of exposure (EI), sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity (ACI) of ten provinces representing the eastern and western parts of Indonesia by using purposive sampling method. Source of data for indices variables were using recorded datas from relevant institutions. The results showed that fisheries status of North Sulawesi (VI = 0,78), Central Sulawesi (VI = 0,72) and Gorontalo (VI = 0,61) were very vulnerable despite the composition of constituent vulnerability index was different. This difference determined the specific policies to be taken to each province to reduce vulnerability.</em> <em>Short term policies are taken to reduce the vulnerability of the most vulnerable areas on Sulawesi Utara, Sulawesi Tengah, and Gorontalo. Medium term policy is carried out in high sensitivity areas, namely Kepulauan Riau, Sulawesi Utara, and Kalimantan Timur and in low adaptive capacity areas such as Jambi, Gorontalo and Bangka Belitung. Long term policy is conducted for areas with high exposure such as Sulawesi Tengah, Sulawesi Utara and Kalimantan Timur.</em></p><p><strong><em>Keywords</em></strong><em>: Climate change, fisheries, vulnerability, province</em></p><p><em><br /></em></p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRAK</strong><strong></strong></p>Perikanan tangkap memiliki peranan penting bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Adanya perubahan iklim akan berdampak merugikan secara langsung maupun tidak langsung pada perikanan tangkap Indonesia. Suatu pendekatan ilmiah diperlukan untuk menentukan risiko perubahan iklim dan strategi adaptasi perikanan tangkap, salah satunya adalah analisis kerentanan (<em>Vulnerability</em>). Oleh karena itu penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis kerentanan perikanan tangkap akibat perubahan iklim pada skala provinsi di Indonesia. Indeks kerentanan (VI) didapatkan dengan mengkompositkan indeks keterpaparan (EI), kepekaan (SI) dan kapasitas adaptif (ACI) dari sepuluh provinsi yang mewakili bagian timur dan barat Indonesia dengan metode <em>purposive sampling. </em>Sumber variabel penyusun indeks variabel menggunakaan rekaman data dari instansi terkait.  Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa provinsi Sulawesi Utara (VI=0,78), Sulawesi Tengah (VI=0,72) dan Gorontalo (VI=0,61) berstatus sangat rentan walaupun komposisi penyusun indeks kerentanannya tidak sama. Perbedaan ini menentukan bahwa jenis kebijakan yang diambil menjadi spesifik pada tiap provinsi untuk mengurangi kerentanan. <em>Short term policy </em>diambil untuk mengurangi dapak di daerah yang paling rentan yaitu Sulawesi Utara, Sulawesi Tengah, dan Gorontalo. <em>Medium term policy </em>dilakukan pada daerah yang kepekaannya tinggi yaitu Kepulauan Riau, Sulawesi Utara, dan Kalimantan Timur dan kapasitas adaptifnya rendah yaitu Jambi, Gorontalo dan Bangka Belitung. <em>Long term policy </em>dilakukan untuk daerah yang keterpaparannya tinggi yaitu Sulawesi Tengah, Sulawesi Utara dan Kalimantan Timur.<p><strong>Kata kunci</strong>:<em> </em>perubahan iklim, perikanan tangkap, kerentanan, provinsi <strong></strong></p>

scholarly journals Three-stage quantitative approach of understanding household adaptation decisions in rural Cambodia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Xi Jiao ◽  
Yuan Zheng ◽  
Zhen Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Multiple Stressors ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Adaptation Decision

Purpose A better understanding of the processes that shape households’ adaptation decisions is essential for developing pertinent policies locally, thereby enabling better adaptation across scales and multiple stakeholders. This paper aims to examine the determinants of household decisions to adapt, it is also possible to target factors that facilitate or constrain adaptation. This helps to identify key components of current adaptive capacity, which leads to important insights into households’ competence to adapt in the future. Design/methodology/approach This paper takes a full-pledged approach examining factors and processes that shape households’ climate adaptation decision-making in rural Cambodia at three levels: adaptation status, adaptation intensity and choices of adaptation strategy. The three-stage analyses are materialized by applying the double hurdle model and multivariate probit model, which provides a potential way to systematically assess household adaptation decision-making in rural settings. Findings Results show a high level of involvement in adaptation among local households who are facing multiple stressors including climatic risks. The findings suggest that perceived climate change influence households’ decisions in both adaptation status and intensity. Access to financial credit, farmland size, water availability and physical asset holdings are identified as key factors promoting the adoption of more adaptation measures. To facilitate adaptation, collective effort and support at community level is important in providing knowledge based climate information dissemination and early warning systems. Public sector support and development aid programs should focus on positive triggers for targeted community and household adaptation. Originality/value The study, to the authors’ best knowledge, is one of the first studies to investigate the determinants of local adaptation decision-making systematically in Cambodia. It also provides a comprehensive approach to improve understanding of adaptation decision-making processes by exploring how various capital assets are associated with different stages of adaptation decisions. The findings contribute to policy implications enlightening adaptation planning at multi-scales with knowledge of key factors, which enhance local adaptive capacity to reduce climate change vulnerability.

Vulnerability to Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 1393-1416
Author(s):  
Sibananda Senapati ◽  
Vijaya Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Fishing Villages ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood Approach ◽  
The City

This paper is based on a detail review of literature available in the area of climate change, vulnerability and impact assessment. Methodological issues pertaining to vulnerability like; development of vulnerability indicators, process of indicator selection etc are the main focus in this paper. As discussed indicators are more acceptable, easy to understand and help in comparing across regions. However, indicators also possess a number of limitations. There are issues in selecting indicators and how to aggregate their values. The current study tries to overcome those issues through a primary study. The study region is Mumbai, India and ‘Koli' fishing communities reside in the city. The socio-economic implications of climate change and vulnerability of communities depending on fishery are estimated by developing vulnerability indicators using Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA), and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Further experts opinions are considered while selecting indicators. Vulnerability indicators are derived from literature and validated through experts' opinion. Experts are chosen from higher learning institutes in the city. In the climate change literature vulnerability mainly divided into exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The indicators of sensitivity and exposure under vulnerability are combined here and categorized into two: livelihood and perceived changes. Similarly the indicators of adaptive capacity are of five categories comprising human, physical, financial, social and government policy related indicators. Thus a total 30 indicators are selected. Among five fishing villages surveyed, fishermen from Madh and Worli are found more vulnerable because of their high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. The derived vulnerability scores are further compared and analyzed against the scores derived from experts. The overall result shows the experts value of indicators are similar with the indicator score derived in the study using simple aggregate method. This study further provides policy implications for reducing vulnerability of fishing villages.

scholarly journals Puerto Rican Farmers' Psychological Awareness of Climate Change, and Adaptation Perceptions after Hurricane Maria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Alexis Rodríguez-Cruz ◽  
Meredith Niles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Psychological Distance

Strengthening farmers’ adaptive capacity is important for decreasing their vulnerability to natural hazards in this changing climate, and for safeguarding local food systems. One key step in strengthening adaptive capacity is understanding the relationship between farmers’ experience with natural hazards and their perceptions of climate change, and its role in farmers’ decision making around climate change adaptation. Here we explore Puerto Rican farmers’ psychological distance of climate change after experiencing category 4 Hurricane Maria, in order to intersect the roles of experience, perceptions, and motivation for farmers’ decision-making around climate change adaptation. Farmers throughout Puerto Rico were surveyed by Extension Services’ agents (n = 405, 87% response rate) in 2018, eight months after Hurricane Maria. A structural equation model was used to evaluate how reported experience with past events and direct damages by Hurricane Maria related to farmers’ psychological distance of climate change, and the association of these variables to farmers’ motivation to adapt to climate change. We found that farmers psychological distance of climate change is both near and far, since they show a broad awareness to climate change’s impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, geographical, and social). Reported experience and direct damages by the hurricane were not linked to their psychological distance of climate change, and these did not relate to their motivation to adapt. These results suggest that using extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action may no longer be relevant, especially in a context where there is a high level of climate change belief and continued threat of extreme events. Thus, broadening analysis beyond individual perceptions as drivers of climate adaptation to how structural dynamics are linked to adaptive capacity could provide better understanding. This study is among the first to study the role of climate change experience and perceptions on farmers’ climate change adaption after an extreme weather event in an island-archipelago setting.

scholarly journals CLIMATE RISK VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MAJOR CROPS IN THE PROVINCE OF AGUSAN DEL NORTE, PHILIPPINES

2021 ◽  
Vol XLVI-4/W6-2021 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
A. G. Apdohan ◽  
R. P. Varela ◽  
R. M. Balanay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Planning Tool ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Maxent Modelling ◽  
Risk Vulnerability ◽  
Banana Crops

Abstract. Assessing an area's vulnerability can serve as an effective planning tool to increase resilience to climate-related hazards. This paper provides information on the most vulnerable municipalities to climate change impacts in the province of Agusan del Norte, Philippines. The assessment included in the geospatial analysis were physical, agro-ecological, and socio-economic indicators clustered under the components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Using MaxEnt, modelling the suitability of crops due to changes in temperature and precipitation by the year 2050 determines the crops' sensitivity. A combination of natural hazards datasets was used to estimate the extent of exposure to each municipality within the province under pressure from climate and hydro-meteorological risks. An up-to-date database from the concerned local government units for adaptive capacity indicators was clustered into seven capitals: economic, natural, human, physical, social, anticipatory, and institutional. The total CRV model for rice, corn, and banana crops revealed that the municipalities identified as highly vulnerable due to their high exposure to climate hazards, the decreasing crops' suitability to climate variability, and low adaptive capacity.

A “Sensibility of the Commons” and Climate Change Adaptive Capacity in Haiti

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 519-543
Author(s):  
Cynthia J. Bogard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Essential Feature ◽  
Counter Example ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Commons ◽  
Action Taking

A sensibility of the commons, defined as a community sentiment of shared, responsible decision-making and action-taking concerning a designated resource, is an essential feature of societies likely to adapt effectively to climate change. Impoverished Haiti provides a tragic counter example and instead is likely to be highly vulnerable to climate instability. Vulnerability is defined as likely impacts plus adaptive capacity. Haiti’s degraded environment and dearth of inclusive institutions is in part responsible for its current vulnerability. Its former slave economy has been followed by an oligarchic extractionist economy leaving little room for developing the social prerequisites of high adaptive capacity societies. These are: empowered citizens, inclusive institutions, a generalized morality wherein all have rights, and a sensibility of the commons and its concomitant social capital.

Vulnerability to Climate Change

2016 ◽  
pp. 82-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sibananda Senapati ◽  
Vijaya Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Fishing Villages ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood Approach ◽  
The City

This paper is based on a detail review of literature available in the area of climate change, vulnerability and impact assessment. Methodological issues pertaining to vulnerability like; development of vulnerability indicators, process of indicator selection etc are the main focus in this paper. As discussed indicators are more acceptable, easy to understand and help in comparing across regions. However, indicators also possess a number of limitations. There are issues in selecting indicators and how to aggregate their values. The current study tries to overcome those issues through a primary study. The study region is Mumbai, India and ‘Koli' fishing communities reside in the city. The socio-economic implications of climate change and vulnerability of communities depending on fishery are estimated by developing vulnerability indicators using Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA), and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Further experts opinions are considered while selecting indicators. Vulnerability indicators are derived from literature and validated through experts' opinion. Experts are chosen from higher learning institutes in the city. In the climate change literature vulnerability mainly divided into exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The indicators of sensitivity and exposure under vulnerability are combined here and categorized into two: livelihood and perceived changes. Similarly the indicators of adaptive capacity are of five categories comprising human, physical, financial, social and government policy related indicators. Thus a total 30 indicators are selected. Among five fishing villages surveyed, fishermen from Madh and Worli are found more vulnerable because of their high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. The derived vulnerability scores are further compared and analyzed against the scores derived from experts. The overall result shows the experts value of indicators are similar with the indicator score derived in the study using simple aggregate method. This study further provides policy implications for reducing vulnerability of fishing villages.

scholarly journals Malaria Risk and Vulnerability of Communities Due to Climate Change in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Shah Areeb Hussain ◽  
Poonam Singh ◽  
Ramesh C Dhiman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Malaria Risk ◽  
Ecological Sensitivity ◽  
Holistic View

Abstract Background: Malaria is an erstwhile public health problem that is further compounded in India due to diverse climatic conditions, ecology, socio-developmental indicators and the imminent threat of climate change. Mapping of malaria risk using climatic and ecological factors has been assessed to some extent but the vulnerability by taking into consideration the human factors i.e. socio-economics and adaptive capacity, in climatically vulnerable areas is not known. The present communication deals with determining the risk and vulnerability at district level by taking into account the hazard due to climate change, population exposed, ecological sensitivity and the community’s adaptive capacity.Methods: Based on the IPCC framework, relevant indicators for the dimensions of risk (Hazard, Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity) were identified from literature and was used to develop indices. Data for each indicator was obtained through government websites. Weights for different indicators were assigned using principle component analysis and the indices were aggregated to develop a district wise risk and vulnerability profile of India.Results: Malaria risk was found to be highest in Bihar (Ri=0.7) due to very low adaptive capacity coupled with high sensitivity. In some states with high climatic hazard and/or sensitivity for malaria, such as Tripura, Mizoram, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, high Adaptive capacity acted as a buffer, reducing the overall risk of malaria. Further, malaria risk is projected to be introduced for the first time in some districts of Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh by 2030s due to the effects of climate change. Conclusion: The results of the study highlight the importance of various socio-development indicators in representing a holistic view of malaria risk. Adaptive capacity emerged as an important index as it could help counter the effects of climate change on malaria by enabling the community to cope with the adverse effects.

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