Identifying oceanographic conditions conducive to coastal impacts on temperate open coastal beaches and the importance of empirical impact data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chloe Leach ◽  
Ben S. Hague ◽  
David M. Kennedy ◽  
Rafael C. Carvalho ◽  
Daniel Ierodiaconou
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Impacts ◽  
Hazard Warnings ◽  
Local Mean ◽  
Physical Impact ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Impact Data ◽  
Impact Events

Abstract Warnings issued by meteorological or oceanographic agencies are a common means of allowing people to prepare for likely impactful events. Quantifying the relationships between ocean conditions and coastal impacts is crucial for developing operational coastal hazard warnings. Existing studies have largely omitted empirical data, relying on modelling to estimate total water levels and impact potentials. It is well documented that site-specific conditions influence local morphodynamics and as such, detailed data related to the physical environment is a necessary component of these existing approaches. The capacity to collect this data is not always available and there is a need for the inclusion of physical impact events to properly quantify the effects of natural hazards and identify the conditions that they are likely to occur. We propose an alternative empirically-based framework for isolating oceanic conditions that are conducive to impact along open coasts, using two case studies from Victoria, southeast Australia: Port Fairy and Inverloch. Oceanic conditions were defined using data obtained from a WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model hindcast, assessed against newly-installed wave buoys, which evidenced variation in mean conditions between the two sites. We coupled impact-based data derived from citizen-science and social media to modelled and observational data, to identify the oceanic conditions that led to these impacts. We found heterogeneity in the response of the case study locations to deviations from the local mean wave characteristics and still water levels. This paper demonstrates a framework through which impact-based thresholds for erosion could be developed for management applications and early-warning systems.

scholarly journals Towards impact-based flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh: a case study at the local level in Sirajganj district

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Sai ◽  
Lydia Cumiskey ◽  
Albrecht Weerts ◽  
Biswa Bhattacharya ◽  
Raihanul Haque Khan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Group Discussions ◽  
Forecasting And Warning ◽  
Or Team ◽  
Warning Services

Abstract. Impact-based forecasting and warning services aim to bridge the gap between producers and users of warning information by connecting and increasing synergies between the components of effective early warning systems. We tested qualitatively whether a warning message based on colour codes is understandable and useful to trigger risk mitigation actions at the local level in the flood-exposed communities of Rajapur and Ghorjan unions in Sirajganj district, Bangladesh. With a community-based approach for different groups of users (i.e. sectors), flood-impact scenarios were determined from past events and related to colour codes. These were developed into impact-based forecasting and warnings that can connect water levels, through the colour code, to localised guidance information tailored to sectors’ needs on how to respond to the expected flood. This approach was tested through a limited number of focus group discussions and interviews at the community level. Overall, the colour coded impact-based warnings were found to be an easy and understandable way to link water level forecasts to the necessary risk mitigation actions, however, further investigation is needed to validate these findings under real-time conditions. IBFW has huge potential in Bangladesh but its integration requires significant institutional changes, such as an inter-facing agency (long term) or team (short term), adjusted policy frameworks (standing orders on disasters), and new resource allocations for skills development and technological innovation from national to local levels. Overall, this paper aims to offer a first insight into impact-based forecasting and warning services in Bangladesh to trigger further research and project developments.

A case study of global ULF pulsations using data from space-borne and ground-based magnetometers and a SuperDARN radar

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 54-67
Author(s):  
A.S. Potapov ◽  
◽  
E. Amata ◽  
T.N. Polyushkina ◽  
I. Coco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Using Data

The Interactional Foundations of Economic Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Reichmann
Keyword(s):  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Social Legitimacy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Economic Future ◽  
Economic Forecasts ◽  
Epistemic Process

How do economic forecasters produce legitimate and credible predictions of the economic future, despite most of the economy being transmutable and indeterminate? Using data from a case study of economic forecasting institutes in Germany, this chapter argues that the production of credible economic futures depends on an epistemic process embedded in various forms of interaction. This interactional foundation—through ‘foretalk’ and ‘epistemic participation’ in networks of internal and external interlocutors—sharpens economic forecasts in three ways. First, it brings to light new imaginaries of the economic future, allowing forecasters to spot emerging developments they would otherwise have missed. Second, it ensures the forecasts’ social legitimacy. And finally, it increases the forecasts’ epistemic quality by providing decentralized information about the intentions and assumptions of key economic and political actors.

scholarly journals Investigation into the Cause of Iron-Related Clogging of Groundwater Bores Used for Viticulture in the Limestone Coast, South Australia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 683
Author(s):  
Birte Moser ◽  
Meruyert Beknazarova ◽  
Harriet Whiley ◽  
Thilini Piushani Keerthirathne ◽  
Nikki Harrington ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Clear Correlation ◽  
Problem Analysis ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Iron Manganese

Iron-related clogging of boreholes, pumps and dripper lines is a significant and costly problem for irrigators worldwide. The primary cause of iron-related clogging is still debated. Previous studies have described complex interactions between biological clogging and inorganic iron/manganese oxide precipitation. This case study examined groundwater bores used for viticulture irrigation in the Limestone Coast region, a highly productive wine growing area in the SE of South Australia. Iron clogging of bore screens, pumps and dripper systems has been a persistent problem in the region and the issue is perceived to be growing, with irrigators suggesting the widespread introduction of iron-related bacteria (IRB) through drilling equipment to be the root cause of the problem. Analysis of the groundwater microbiology and inorganic chemistry found no apparent correlation between the presence of IRB and the clogging status of wells. In fact, IRB proved to be widespread throughout the limestone aquifer. However, a clear correlation could be found between clogging affected bores and the redox potential of the groundwater with the most severely affected bores strongly oversaturated in respect to iron oxide minerals. Elevated dissolved concentrations of Fe(II) thereby tended to be found in deeper bores, which also were generally more recently drilled. Following decades of less than average rainfall, a tendency to deepen bores in response to widespread declines in water levels has been documented for the SE of South Australia. The gradually widening clogging problem in the region is postulated to be related to the changes in climate in the region, with irrigators increasingly driven to rely on deeper, anoxic iron-rich groundwater resources.

scholarly journals Extending Geodemographics Using Data Primitives: A Review and a Methodological Proposal

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 386
Author(s):  
Jennie Gray ◽  
Lisa Buckner ◽  
Alexis Comber
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Current State ◽  
Cluster Label ◽  
Static Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Using Data

This paper reviews geodemographic classifications and developments in contemporary classifications. It develops a critique of current approaches and identifiea a number of key limitations. These include the problems associated with the geodemographic cluster label (few cluster members are typical or have the same properties as the cluster centre) and the failure of the static label to describe anything about the underlying neighbourhood processes and dynamics. To address these limitations, this paper proposed a data primitives approach. Data primitives are the fundamental dimensions or measurements that capture the processes of interest. They can be used to describe the current state of an area in a multivariate feature space, and states can be compared over multiple time periods for which data are available, through for example a change vector approach. In this way, emergent social processes, which may be too weak to result in a change in a cluster label, but are nonetheless important signals, can be captured. As states are updated (for example, as new data become available), inferences about different social processes can be made, as well as classification updates if required. State changes can also be used to determine neighbourhood trajectories and to predict or infer future states. A list of data primitives was suggested from a review of the mechanisms driving a number of neighbourhood-level social processes, with the aim of improving the wider understanding of the interaction of complex neighbourhood processes and their effects. A small case study was provided to illustrate the approach. In this way, the methods outlined in this paper suggest a more nuanced approach to geodemographic research, away from a focus on classifications and static data, towards approaches that capture the social dynamics experienced by neighbourhoods.

Comparing respondents who passed versus failed an Instructional Manipulation Check: A case study about support for climate change policies

2021 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 408-415
Author(s):  
Maria Rubio Juan ◽  
Melanie Revilla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Manipulation Check ◽  
Climate Change Policies ◽  
Instructional Manipulation ◽  
Using Data

The presence of satisficers among survey respondents threatens survey data quality. To identify such respondents, Oppenheimer et al. developed the Instructional Manipulation Check (IMC), which has been used as a tool to exclude observations from the analyses. However, this practice has raised concerns regarding its effects on the external validity and the substantive conclusions of studies excluding respondents who fail an IMC. Thus, more research on the differences between respondents who pass versus fail an IMC regarding sociodemographic and attitudinal variables is needed. This study compares respondents who passed versus failed an IMC both for descriptive and causal analyses based on structural equation modeling (SEM) using data from an online survey implemented in Spain in 2019. These data were analyzed by Rubio Juan and Revilla without taking into account the results of the IMC. We find that those who passed the IMC do differ significantly from those who failed for two sociodemographic and five attitudinal variables, out of 18 variables compared. Moreover, in terms of substantive conclusions, differences between those who passed and failed the IMC vary depending on the specific variables under study.

Foreign Aid and its Role in Maintaining the Exploitation of the Agricultural Sector: Evidence from a Case Study in Africa

1983 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Schuftan
Keyword(s):  
Rural Development ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
National Development ◽  
The Other ◽  
Sizable Proportion ◽  
Using Data ◽  
State Of Affairs

Today most foreign aid donors are genuinely committed to the idea that development in Third World countries should start with rural development. Therefore, a sizable proportion of their development funds are invested in rural projects. However, donors channel these funds through local governments (most often representing local bourgeois interests) that are not as committed to the principle of rural development. These governments are often also embarked in policies that are actually—directly or indirectly—expropriating the surpluses generated by agriculture and investing them in the other sectors of the economy. The peasants are therefore footing most of the bill of overall national development. This paper contends that, because of this state of affairs, foreign aid directed toward rural development is actually filling the investment gap left by an internal system of unequal returns to production in agriculture. In so doing, foreign aid is indirectly financing the development of the other sectors of the economy, even if this result is unintended. This perpetrates maldevelopment without redressing the basic exploitation process of peasants which lies at the core of underdevelopment. Evidence to support this hypothesis is presented using data from a primarily agricultural exporting country: the United Republic of Cameroon.

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