scholarly journals Vegetation Phenology and Its Response to Climate Change in Extremely Arid Area: A Case Study of Populus Euphratica in The Upper Tarim River Basin, NW China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hualin Li ◽  
Jianzhong Feng ◽  
Linyan bai ◽  
Jianjun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Populus Euphratica ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Arid Area ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Area Index

Abstract Quantifying the phenological variations of Populus euphratica (P. euphratica) resulting from climate change is vital for desert ecosystems in extremely arid regions. P. euphratica phenology and its response to climate change are lacking in extremely arid area. In this study, a modified method was proposed to explore P. euphratica phenology and its response to climate change using 15-year Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) leaf area index (LAI) time-series data (2002–2016) in the upper Tarim River basin. The start of the growing season (SOS), length of the growing season (LOS), and end of the growing season (EOS) were obtained with the dynamic threshold method from the reconstructed growth time series curve by using the Savitzky-Golay filtering method. The grey relational analysis (GRA) method was utilized to analyze the correlation between the phenological features of P. euphratica and climatic factors. Importantly, we also revealed the positive and negative effects between interannual climate factors and P. euphratica phenology using the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, and the interaction between the SOS in spring and EOS in autumn. The results revealed that the SOS of P. euphratica was delayed by about 5.3 days/10a, while EOS was advanced by about 3.1 days/10a. The phenology of P. euphratica was extensively changed, with high spatial heterogeneity. Spring sunshine duration (SD) and average air temperature (AT) controlled the SOS and EOS, although the impacts of average relative humidity (RH) and precipitation (PR) on phenology cannot be overlooked. The SOS was positively correlated with the EOS, implying a later SOS may generally be accompanied by a later EOS. Global warming may lead to SOS advance and EOS delay, and the increase of SD may lead to later SOS and earlier EOS. Groundwater was found to be a key factor for controlling P. euphratica phenology than runoff in this region.

scholarly journals Populus euphratica Phenology and Its Response to Climate Change in the Upper Tarim River Basin, NW China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1315
Author(s):  
Hualin Li ◽  
Jianzhong Feng ◽  
Linyan Bai ◽  
Jianjun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Populus Euphratica ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Growth Time ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Area Index

Quantifying the phenological variations of Populus euphratica Olivier (P. euphratica) resulting from climate change is vital for desert ecosystems. There has previously been great progress in the influence of climate change on vegetation phenology, but knowledge of the variations in P. euphratica phenology is lacking in extremely arid areas. In this study, a modified method was proposed to explore P. euphratica phenology and its response to climate change using 18-year Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) leaf area index (LAI) time series data (2000–2017) in the upper Tarim River basin. The start of the growing season (SOS), length of the growing season (LOS), and end of the growing season (EOS) were obtained with the dynamic threshold method from the reconstructed growth time series curve by using the Savitzky–Golay filtering method. The grey relational analysis (GRA) method was utilized to analyze the influence between the phenology and the key climatic periods and factors. Importantly, we also revealed the positive and negative effects between interannual climate factors and P. euphratica phenology using the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, and the interaction between the SOS in spring and EOS in autumn. The results revealed that trends of P. euphratica phenology (i.e., SOS, EOS, and LOS) were not significant during the period from 2000–2017. The spring temperature and sunshine duration (SD) controlled the SOS, and the EOS was mainly affected by the temperature and SD from June–November, although the impacts of average relative humidity (RH) and precipitation (PR) on the SOS and EOS cannot be overlooked. Global warming may lead to SOS advance and EOS delay, and the increase in SD and PR may lead to earlier SOS and later EOS. Runoff was found to be a more key factor for controlling P. euphratica phenology than PR in this region.

scholarly journals Comparing bias correction methods in downscaling meteorological variables for hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 12659-12696 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. H. Fang ◽  
J. Yang ◽  
Y. N. Chen ◽  
C. Zammit
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Temperature Correction ◽  
Arid Area ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Impact Study

Abstract. Water resources are essential to the ecosystem and social economy in the desert and oasis of the arid Tarim River Basin, Northwest China, and expected to be vulnerable to climate change. Regional Climate Models (RCM) have been proved to provide more reliable results for regional impact study of climate change (e.g. on water resources) than GCM models. However, it is still necessary to apply bias correction before they are used for water resources research due to often considerable biases. In this paper, after a sensitivity analysis on input meteorological variables based on Sobol' method, we compared five precipitation correction methods and three temperature correction methods to the output of a RCM model with its application to the Kaidu River Basin, one of the headwaters of the Tarim River Basin. Precipitation correction methods include Linear Scaling (LS), LOCal Intensity scaling (LOCI), Power Transformation (PT), Distribution Mapping (DM) and Quantile Mapping (QM); and temperature correction methods include LS, VARIance scaling (VARI) and DM. These corrected precipitation and temperature were compared to the observed meteorological data, and then their impacts on streamflow were also compared by driving a distributed hydrologic model. The results show: (1) precipitation, temperature, solar radiation are sensitivity to streamflow while relative humidity and wind speed are not, (2) raw RCM simulations are heavily biased from observed meteorological data, which results in biases in the simulated streamflows, and all bias correction methods effectively improved theses simulations, (3) for precipitation, PT and QM methods performed equally best in correcting the frequency-based indices (e.g. SD, percentile values) while LOCI method performed best in terms of the time series based indices (e.g. Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, R2), (4) for temperature, all bias correction methods performed equally well in correcting raw temperature. (5) For simulated streamflow, precipitation correction methods have more significant influence than temperature correction methods and the performances of streamflow simulations are consistent with these of corrected precipitation, i.e. PT and QM methods performed equally best in correcting flow duration curve and peak flow while LOCI method performed best in terms of the time series based indices. The case study is for an arid area in China based on a specific RCM and hydrologic model, but the methodology and some results can be applied to other area and other models.

Water use strategies of Populus euphratica seedlings under groundwater fluctuation in the Tarim River Basin of Central Asia

CATENA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 89-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dandan Wang ◽  
Zhitong Yu ◽  
Gang Peng ◽  
Chengyi Zhao ◽  
Jianli Ding ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Populus Euphratica ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
Groundwater Fluctuation ◽  
The Tarim River Basin

Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50years: Human impact or climate change?

2011 ◽  
Vol 400 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Tao ◽  
Marco Gemmer ◽  
Yungang Bai ◽  
Buda Su ◽  
Weiyi Mao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Impact ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
The Tarim River Basin

Contingent Valuation Method Assessment of the Ecological Benefits of Populus Euphratica Forest Based on Consumer Perspective - Taking the Typical Area in Tarim River Basin as an Example

2014 ◽  
Vol 962-965 ◽  
pp. 703-709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chong Zhi Xu ◽  
Qing Li ◽  
Wu Xu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Contingent Valuation ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Contingent Valuation Method ◽  
Populus Euphratica ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Forest Protection ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Per Capita

Populus euphratica Olive. as the skeleton of the desert riparian forest is a green barrier for protection oasis of the southern areas of Xinjiang. Degradation of P. euphratica forest is the concentrated expression of ecological vulnerability in the desert areas. In order to understand the residents cognition degree to the ecological value of P. euphratica forest and willingness to pay (WTP) for P. euphratica forest protection along the Tarim River Basin, The questionnaires and interview methods were used , the largest payment were estimated with contingent valuation method (CVM) and the main affecting factors were explored.The main conclusions showed that the residents income, education and cognition degree to the P. euphratica forest were significant impact on the maximum payment value; Different ecological environment, economic and social conditions along the Trim River Basin had a critical influence to payment options and the size of payment willingness for the residents; The maximum willingness to pay per capita of 53 groups, 13 groups, 34 groups amounted to 220.89 yuan / year, 499.08 yuan / year, 653.20 yuan / year, the per capita amount paid in descending order was 34 group > 13 group> 53 group.

Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Headstream Areas of Tarim River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoya Deng ◽  
Ai-hua Long ◽  
Hongbo Ling ◽  
Mingjiang Deng ◽  
Shouping Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin

scholarly journals Assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 834-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaofei Liu ◽  
Zongxue Xu ◽  
Guobin Fu ◽  
Zhijun Yao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
The Tarim River Basin ◽  
Headwater Catchment

Two statistical downscaling models were used to downscale regional climate change scenarios, on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios. Driven by these climate change scenarios, a distributed macro-scale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model) was applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment (HC) of the Tarim River basin, China. The results showed that the HC tends to experience warmer and drier conditions under the combined climate change scenarios. The predictions show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the HC, driven by the combined climate change scenarios. The results predicted an increasing trend for winter runoff however, which was consistent with the forecasts from most previous studies on other locations such as the region of St Lawrence tributaries (Quebec, Canada) and the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA). There was an inconsistent intra-annual distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff in the HC; these inconsistencies may be explained by increasing snowmelt runoff resulting from higher air temperature. It was concluded that uncertainties within different GCM outputs are more significant than emission scenarios in the assessment of the potential impact of climate change.

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