Simulating the impact of climate change on streamflow in the Tarim River basin by using a modified semi-distributed monthly water balance model

2009 ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Z. Peng ◽  
Z. X. Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Tarim River Basin ◽  
Monthly Water Balance ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 834-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaofei Liu ◽  
Zongxue Xu ◽  
Guobin Fu ◽  
Zhijun Yao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
The Tarim River Basin ◽  
Headwater Catchment

Two statistical downscaling models were used to downscale regional climate change scenarios, on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios. Driven by these climate change scenarios, a distributed macro-scale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model) was applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment (HC) of the Tarim River basin, China. The results showed that the HC tends to experience warmer and drier conditions under the combined climate change scenarios. The predictions show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the HC, driven by the combined climate change scenarios. The results predicted an increasing trend for winter runoff however, which was consistent with the forecasts from most previous studies on other locations such as the region of St Lawrence tributaries (Quebec, Canada) and the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA). There was an inconsistent intra-annual distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff in the HC; these inconsistencies may be explained by increasing snowmelt runoff resulting from higher air temperature. It was concluded that uncertainties within different GCM outputs are more significant than emission scenarios in the assessment of the potential impact of climate change.

Potential impact of climate change on snow cover area in the Tarim River basin

2007 ◽  
Vol 53 (7) ◽  
pp. 1465-1474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Changchun ◽  
Chen Yaning ◽  
Li Weihong ◽  
Chen Yapeng ◽  
Ge Hongtao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Snow Cover Area ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Tarim River Basin

Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years

2006 ◽  
Vol 51 (S1) ◽  
pp. 25-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changchun Xu ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Weihong Li ◽  
Yapeng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Hydrologic Process ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
The Tarim River Basin

Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50years: Human impact or climate change?

2011 ◽  
Vol 400 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Tao ◽  
Marco Gemmer ◽  
Yungang Bai ◽  
Buda Su ◽  
Weiyi Mao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Impact ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
The Tarim River Basin

scholarly journals Groundwater dynamics under water-saving irrigation and implications for sustainable water management in an oasis: Tarim River basin of western China

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 3951-3967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Zhang ◽  
H. Hu ◽  
F. Tian ◽  
X. Yao ◽  
M. Sivapalan
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Secondary Salinization ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
The Tarim River Basin ◽  
Exchange Flux

Abstract. Water is essential for life. Specifically in the oases of inland arid basins, water is a critically limited resource, essential for the development of the socio-economy and the sustainability of eco-environmental systems. Due to the unique hydrological regime present in arid oases, a moderate groundwater table is the goal of sustainable water management. A shallow water table induces serious secondary salinization and collapse of agriculture, while a deep water table causes deterioration of natural vegetation. From the hydrological perspective, the exchange flux between the unsaturated vadose zone and groundwater reservoir is a critical link to understanding regional water table dynamics. This flux is substantially influenced by anthropogenic activities. In the Tarim River basin of western China, where agriculture consumes over 90% of available water resources, the exchange flux between the unsaturated vadose zone and groundwater reservoir is influenced strongly by irrigation. Recently, mulched drip irrigation, a sophisticated water-saving irrigation method, was widely applied in the Tarim River basin, which greatly impacted the exchange flux and thus the regional groundwater dynamics. Capitalizing on recent progress in evaporation measurement techniques, we can now close the water balance and directly quantify the exchange flux at the field scale, thus gaining a better understanding of regional groundwater dynamics. In this study, comprehensive observations of water balance components in an irrigated cropland were implemented in 2012 and 2013 in a typical oasis within the Tarim River basin. The water balance analysis showed that the exchange flux and groundwater dynamics were significantly altered by the application of water-saving irrigation. The exchange flux at the groundwater table is mostly downward (310.5 mm year−1), especially during drip irrigation period and spring flush period, while the upward flux is trivial (16.1 mm year−1) due to the moderate groundwater table depth (annual average depth 2.9 m). Traditional secondary salinization caused by intense phreatic evaporation (fed by upward exchange flux) is alleviated. However, a new form of secondary salinization may be introduced unwittingly if there is lack of water for periodic flushing, especially when brackish water is used in the irrigation. Furthermore, the water saved via drip irrigation has been used in further growth of irrigated lands instead of supporting the ecological system. This could lead to an increased risk of eco-environmental degradation and calls for improved governance schemes. The insights gained from this study can be potentially applied to other arid inland areas (e.g., central Asia) which face similar water shortages and human development problems.

scholarly journals PROJECTION OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SURFACE ENERGY AND WATER BALANCE IN THE SEYHAN RIVER BASIN TURKEY

2006 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 31-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji TANAKA ◽  
Yoichi FUJIHARA ◽  
Tsugihiro WATANABE ◽  
Toshiharu KOJIRI ◽  
Shuichi IKEBUCHI
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Glacier retreat as a result of climate warming and increased precipitation in the Tarim river basin, northwest China

2006 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 91-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Yongjian Ding ◽  
Donghui Shangguan ◽  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Tarim River ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
Stream Discharge ◽  
The Tarim River ◽  
High Resolution Satellite Images ◽  
The Tarim River Basin ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Tarim river basin, a river system formed by the convergence of nine tributaries, is the most heavily glacierized watershed in arid northwest China. In the basin, there are 11 665 glaciers with a total area of 19 878 km2 and a volume of 2313 km3. Glaciers in the basin play a significant role in the water resource system. It is estimated that they provide about 133 x 108 m3 of meltwater annually, contributing 39% of the total river runoff. Under the influence of global warming, northwest China has experienced a generally warmer and drier climate since the mid-19th century. However, a so-called ‘warm and wet transition’ has occurred since the late 1980s, evidenced by an increase in both precipitation and stream discharge in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region and neighboring regions. This paper describes how glaciers in the Tarim river basin have responded to such warming and increased precipitation, and the impact of these glacier changes. We analyzed the variations of more than 3000 glaciers since the 1960s using topographical maps, high-resolution satellite images and aerial photographs of the river basin. Our results indicate that glaciers in the basin have been mostly in retreat in the past 40 years, and ice wastage has significantly influenced water resources in the Tarim river basin. Estimation by a degree-day meltwater model shows the positive anomaly in stream runoff of the Tailan river can be partly attributed to the increase in glacier runoff (amounting to one-third of the stream discharge), and a rough estimation using observed average ablation on the termini of 15 glaciers in China verifies that the mass loss calculated by a glacier area-volume relation is reasonable.

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