scholarly journals Prospective Time Periodic Geographical Covid-19 Surveillance in Ethiopia Using a Space-time Scan Statistics: Detecting and Evaluating Emerging Clusters

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuredin Nassir Azmach ◽  
Tesfay Gebremariam Tesfahannes ◽  
Samiya Abrar Abdulsemed ◽  
Temam Abrar Hamza
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Space Time ◽  
City Government ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Time Scan

Abstract Background: On December 31, 2019, multiple pneumonia cases, subsequently identified as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was reported for the first time in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province in China. At that time, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission had report 27 cases, of which seven are severely ill, and the remaining cases are stable and controllable. Since, then, the spread of COVID-19 has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. As of September 07, 2020, there had been more than 27 million confirmed cases and 889,000 total deaths, with an average mortality of about 3.3%, globally. In Ethiopia, 58,672 confirmed cases and 918 deaths and this number are likely to increase exponentially. It is critical to detect clusters of COVID-19 to better allocate resources and improve decision-making as the pandemics continue to grow.Methods: We have collected the individual-level information on patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 on daily bases from the official reports of the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH), regional, and city government of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa health bureaus. Using the daily case data, we conducted a prospective space-time analysis with SaTScan version 9.6. We detect statistically significant space-time clusters of COVID-19 at the woreda and sub-city level in Ethiopia between March 13th-June 6th, 2020, and March 13th-June 24th, 2020.Results: The prospective space-time scan statistic detected “alive” and emerging clusters that are present at the end of our study periods; notably, nine more clusters were detected when adding the updated case data.Conclusions: These results can notify public health officials and decision-makers about where to improve the allocation of resources, testing areas; also, where to implement necessary isolation measures and travel bans. As more confirmed cases become available, the statistic can be rerun to support timely surveillance of COVID-19, demonstrated here. In Ethiopia, our research is the first geographic study that utilizes space-time statistics to monitor COVID-19.

scholarly journals Covid-19 Space-time Cluster Detection Using Retrospective Analysis

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
KALEAB TESFAYE TEGEGNE ◽  
ELENI TESFAYE TEGEGNE ◽  
MEKIBIB KASSA TESSEMA ◽  
GELETA ABERA ◽  
BERHANU BIFATO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Health Data ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
County Level ◽  
Temporal Cluster ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Time Scan

Abstract Background: As of the 31st of January 2021, there had been 102,399,513 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, with 2,217,005 deaths reported to WHOThe goal of this study is to uncover the spatiotemporal patterns of COVID 19 in Ethiopia, which will aid in the planning and implementation of essential preventative measures. Methods We obtained data on COVID 19 cases reported in Ethiopia from November 23 to December 29, 2021, from an Ethiopian health data website that is open to the public.Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan statistics were utilized to detect the temporal, geographical, and spatiotemporal clusters of COVID 19 at the county level in Ethiopia, using the discrete Poisson probability model. Results: In Ethiopia, between November 23 and December 29, 2021, a total of 22,199 COVID 19 cases were reported.The COVID 19 cases in Ethiopia were strongly clustered in spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution, according to the results of Kulldorff's scan. statisticsThe most likely Spatio-temporal cluster (LLR = 70369.783209, RR = 412.48, P 0.001) was mostly concentrated in Addis Ababa and clustered between 2021/11/1 and 2021/11/30.Conclusion: From November 23 to December 29, 2021, this study found three large COVID 19 space-time clusters in Ethiopia, which could aid in future resource allocation in high-risk locations for COVID 19 management and prevention.

scholarly journals Interpersonal Comparisons of the Good: Epistemic not Impossible

Utilitas ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 288-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATHEW COAKLEY
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Interpersonal Comparisons ◽  
Individual Good ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Action Policy ◽  
Social Mind ◽  
The Individual

To evaluate the overall good/welfare of any action, policy or institutional choice we need some way of comparing the benefits and losses to those affected: we need to make interpersonal comparisons of the good/welfare. Yet sceptics have worried either: (1) that such comparisons are impossible as they involve an impossible introspection across individuals, getting ‘into their minds’; (2) that they are indeterminate as individual-level information is compatible with a range of welfare numbers; or (3) that they are metaphysically mysterious as they assume the existence either of a social mind or of absolute levels of welfare when no such things exist. This article argues that such scepticism can potentially be addressed if we view the problem of interpersonal comparisons as fundamentally an epistemic problem – that is, as a problem of forming justified beliefs about the overall good based on evidence of the individual good.

Spatial and space-time scan statistics to detect low rate clusters of sex ratio

2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Francois Viel ◽  
Nathalie Floret ◽  
Frederic Mauny
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Time Scan ◽  
Low Rate

scholarly journals Trends and Spatial Patterns of Oral Cancer Mortality in Ecuador, 2001–2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solange Núñez-González ◽  
J. Andrés Delgado-Ron ◽  
Christopher Gault ◽  
Daniel Simancas-Racines
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Study ◽  
Temporal Trend ◽  
Model Space ◽  
Space Time ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Crude Mortality ◽  
Standardized Mortality Rate ◽  
Time Scan

The aims of this study were to describe the temporal trend of OC from 2001 to 2016 and to analyze the space and space-time clusters of high mortality due to OC in Ecuador from 2011 to 2016. Methods. The present study is a mixed ecological study; the time trends were obtained using a Joinpoint regression model, space-time scan statistics was used to identify high-risk clusters, and Global Moran I index was calculated. Results. In Ecuador, between 2001 and 2016, OC caused a total of 1,025 deaths. Crude mortality rates significantly increased, with an APC (annual percentage change) of 2.7% (p=0.009). The age-standardized mortality rate did not significantly increase (APC: 1.73%; p=0.08). The most likely cluster was detected in 2015, included 20 cantons. The second cluster included 38 cantons, in the years 2014 to 2016. The Global Moran I index for the study period showed a negative spatial autocorrelation (−0.067; p=0.37). Conclusion. Mortality due to OC in Ecuador significantly increased over the 16-year study period, the young groups being the most affected. Ecuadorian provinces present high variability in types of OC and cancer rates.

Information Processing, Motivation, and Group Creativity

2019 ◽  
pp. 85-102
Author(s):  
Bernard A. Nijstad ◽  
Myriam Bechtoldt ◽  
Hoon-Seok Choi
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Cognitive Stimulation ◽  
Collaborative Problem Solving ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Group Creativity ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Motivated Information Processing ◽  
Processing Motivation ◽  
The Individual

According to an information processing perspective, group creativity results from the combination of individual resources into a (creative) group product. This involves information processing at the individual as well as the group level (by means of communication). This chapter first discusses how individual-level information processing is affected by group interaction in terms of both cognitive interference and cognitive stimulation. It then discusses (1) the evidence linking group-level information processing (i.e., communication, information sharing, collaborative problem solving) to group creativity and (2) the factors that stimulate or reduce group-level information processing. It is argued that many research findings can be explained by assuming that group creativity involves motivated information processing of members.

scholarly journals Community Participation in the Alleviating Program of Street Children in Semarang City

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 231
Author(s):  
Hesti Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Community Participation ◽  
Street Children ◽  
City Government ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Road Users ◽  
The People ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The City

Semarang city is the capital city of Central Java province that became the fifth largest city in Indonesia. Because of the progress the city is then not a few people who come to the city to seek their fortunes. According to source from news.okezone.com state that the community who came to Semarang mostly from Demak Regency, Kendal Regency, and Semarang Sub-District. The community comes to Semarang city one of which is the existence of street children. Street children are children who are most the time they use to the streets or other public places are good for a living or hang around. The majority of street children in the city of Semarang have been experiencing dropouts, caused by the limitations of the cost be a factor driving the street children take to the streets, and also the poverty factor that resulted in all members of the family are falls and street to meet the necessities of life. The results of the research conducted in the field researchers indicates that public participation Semarang against street children is immense, as seen from research done to road users in the area of the city of Semarang, the majority of road users are reluctant to give money to beggars or street children. The Act is done because road users recognize that the activities of street children conducted in the street not become the responsibility of road users and not because of the desire of the individual itself. Other forms of participation that is often done with road users give money or buy merchandise sold street children due to a sense of sympathy and pity towards the existence of street children in the city of Semarang. Factors that encourage community participation includes: a) the availability of Regulations; b) cooperation with the private City Government; c) adequate human resources; d) facilities and infrastructure; and e) budget. While becoming a barrier to participation in the efforts for the people of alleviating street children are: a) the existence of Urbanization; b) high rates of Poverty; c) conditions and social change.

scholarly journals Space-Time Clustering Characteristics of Tuberculosis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan, 2015–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1413
Author(s):  
Sami Ullah ◽  
Hanita Daud ◽  
Sarat C. Dass ◽  
Hadi Fanaee-T ◽  
Husnul Kausarian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Program ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province ◽  
Rural Part ◽  
Tb Control Program ◽  
Time Scan ◽  
Cool Climate

The number of tuberculosis (TB) cases in Pakistan ranks fifth in the world. The National TB Control Program (NTP) has recently reported more than 462,920 TB patients in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan from 2002 to 2017. This study aims to identify spatial and space-time clusters of TB cases in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province Pakistan during 2015–2019 to design effective interventions. The spatial and space-time cluster analyses were conducted at the district-level based on the reported TB cases from January 2015 to April 2019 using space-time scan statistics (SaTScan). The most likely spatial and space-time clusters were detected in the northern rural part of the province. Additionally, two districts in the west were detected as the secondary space-time clusters. The most likely space-time cluster shows a tendency of spread toward the neighboring districts in the central part, and the most likely spatial cluster shows a tendency of spread toward the neighboring districts in the south. Most of the space-time clusters were detected at the start of the study period 2015–2016. The potential TB clusters in the remote rural part might be associated to the dry–cool climate and lack of access to the healthcare centers in the remote areas.

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