Trends in Diabetes Mortality in Urban and Rural China, 1987–2019: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

PurposeDiabetes mellitus is emerging as an epidemic worldwide, and the incidence and prevalence of diabetes have drastically changed in China over the past 30 years, but data on its mortality rate are scarce. This study aimed to analyze the time trends of mortality rates among patients with diabetes in the rural and urban population in China between 1987 and 2019.MethodsThe research data come from China’s annual report on national health statistics and the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by using the direct method based on the World Standard Population from the WHO. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percentage changes of mortality rates of diabetes mellitus.ResultsAn overall trend for increment in diabetes mortality was observed. The crude mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates of diabetes for urban and rural residents in China showed a significant increasing trend between 1987 and 2019. Mortality due to diabetes in urban areas has been higher than in rural areas for 30 years. However, due to the rapid increase of rural diabetes mortality in the past decade, the gap between the two gradually narrowed. The age-standardized mortality rates of diabetes increased by about 38.5% in urban areas and 254.9% in rural areas over the whole study period. In addition, the age-standardized mortality rate of females with diabetes was higher than that of males, but this pattern began to change in urban areas in 2012. Finally, the age-standardized mortality rates in the elderly population in China are higher with a faster growth rate, especially in rural areas.ConclusionThe mortality rate of diabetes is on the rise in China. The rapid growth of the mortality rate of diabetes in rural areas leads to the reduction of the urban–rural gap. Male mortality rates in urban areas have surpassed those of women. At the same time, the mortality rate of diabetes showed obvious elder-group orientation. As China’s population ages, the burden of death and disability caused by diabetes and its complications will continue to increase. These results indicate that diabetes has become a significant public health problem in China. Such an effect increases the demand for strategies aimed at the prevention and treatment of diabetes mellitus. In addition to the prevention and intervention of diabetes in high-risk groups, it is also necessary to establish diabetes screening networks to identify patients with mild symptoms. Early detection and timely intervention can effectively reduce the incidence and mortality of diabetes.

National trends in the proportion of in-hospital deaths by cause of death among older adults with long-term care: a nationwide observational study in Japan from 2007 to 2017

Background Japan has promoted end-of-life care at home and in long-term care facilities, and the total proportion of in-hospital deaths has decreased recently. However, the difference in trends of in-hospital deaths by the cause of death remains unclear. We investigated the variation in trends of in-hospital deaths among older adults with long-term care from 2007 to 2017, by cause of death and place of care. Methods Using the national long-term care insurance registry, long-term care claims data, and national death records, we identified people aged 65 years or older who died between 2007 and 2017 and used long-term care services in the month before death. Using a joinpoint regression model, we evaluated time trends of the proportion of in-hospital deaths by cause of death (cancer, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pneumonia, and senility) and place of care (home, long-term care health facility, or long-term care welfare facility). Results Of the 3,261,839 participants, the mean age was 87.0 ± 8.0 years, and 59.2% were female. Overall, the proportion of in-hospital deaths decreased from 66.2% in 2007 to 55.3% in 2017. By cause of death, the proportion of in-hospital deaths remained the highest for pneumonia (81.6% in 2007 and 77.2% in 2017) and lowest for senility (25.5% in 2007 and 20.0% in 2017) in all types of places of care. The joinpoint regression analysis showed the steepest decline among those who died of senility, especially among long-term care health facility residents. Conclusions The findings of this nationwide study suggest that there was a decreasing trend of in-hospital deaths among older adults, although the speed of decline and absolute values varied widely depending on the cause of death and place of care.

TAXA DE CONVERSÃO DE POTENCIAIS DOADORES EM DOADORES EFETIVOS NO BRASIL: UMA ANÁLISE TEMPORAL

Introdução: O advento do transplante de órgãos impactou o cenário epidemiológico de inúmeras afecções que, outrora, eram consideradas fatais. No Brasil, assistiu-se a uma importante evolução tecnológica, logística e informacional referente ao processo de doação e transplante de órgãos. Apesar do avanço, a quantidade de transplantes realizados no Brasil ainda é insuficiente para a quantidade de pessoas que aguardam na fila de espera. Destaca-se a discrepância entre o número de potenciais doadores e a quantidade de doações efetivadas. Objetivos: Analisar a tendência da taxa de conversão de doadores potenciais em efetivos no Brasil, entre 2013 e 2020. Material e métodos: Estudo analítico, observacional, longitudinal e retrospectivo. Obteve-se o número de doadores potenciais e de doadores efetivos a partir do Registro Brasileiro de Transplantes. Calculou-se a taxa de efetivação da doação (TE) para cada 100 potenciais doadores e a tendência da TE ao longo do tempo pela regressão linear segmentada (Joinpoint Regression Program versão 4.7), bem como a variação percentual anual (APC) e seu intervalo de 95% de confiança (IC95%). Resultados: Houve aumento na TE durante todo o período analisado. A variação percentual anual foi de 2% (IC95% = 0,6; 3,4). Não houve joinpoint, ou seja, quebra significativa na tendência apresentada. Os valores variaram de 28,47%, em 2013, a 33,08% em 2019. Em 2020, ano de início dos impactos da pandemia pelo SARS-CoV-2, obteve-se uma taxa de 31,3 doadores efetivos a cada 100 doadores em potencial, configurando-se como a menor TE desde 2016. Conclusão: A análise das taxas de doadores efetivos em relação aos potenciais permite a obtenção de um indicador de saúde. Apesar da manutenção da tendência de crescimento desse marcador, o que decorre, houve um regresso notável na efetivação da doação. O impacto da pandemia de COVID-19, com a paralisação de diversos serviços de saúde, representou um obstáculo para a manutenção da tendência crescente das taxas de efetivação. Nesse contexto, estudos posteriores são necessários para elucidação de outros marcadores úteis para o entendimento do padrão de efetivações cirúrgicas na área dos transplantes.

Hospitalization Trends for Acute Appendicitis in Spain, 1998 to 2017

The incidence of acute appendicitis decreased in Western countries from 1930 to at least the early 1990s, when epidemiological data started becoming scarcer. This study aimed to assess the trend in annual hospitalizations for acute appendicitis in all people Spain for a 20-year period between 1998 and 2017. This observational study analyzing direct age-standardized hospital admission rates by gender and age group (0–14 years, 15–34 years, 35–44 years, 45–64 years, and ≥65 years). Joinpoint regression models were fitted to evaluate changes in trends. There were 789,533 emergency hospital admissions for acute appendicitis between 1998 and 2017: 58.9% in boys and men and 41.1% in girls and women. Overall, there was a significant increase in admissions for this cause from 1998 to 2009, with an annual percent change (APC) of 0.6%. Following the peak in 2009, admission rates decreased by around 1.0% annually until 2017. The length of hospital stay gradually decreased from 4.5 days in 1998 to 3.4 days in 2017. The trends in hospital admissions for acute appendicitis in Spain changed over the study period, decreasing from 2009, especially in people younger than 35 years.

Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age–period–cohort analysis

Background Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. Methods This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model. Results During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 1.63; 95% CI: − 1.71 to − 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: − 4.35; 95% CI: − 5.12 to − 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 3.88; 95% CI: − 4.63 to − 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. Conclusion Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Trends in infective endocarditis mortality in the United Kingdom and EU 15+ countries between 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases database

Background Infective Endocarditis (IE) is a relatively uncommon but lethal condition, with no convincing evidence to date of improving mortality trends (1). The epidemiology of IE is complex, driven by a wide range of constantly evolving factors. While marked international variation has been recently reported (2), temporal trends in mortality over recent decades remain unclear. Purpose To describe trends in IE mortality in high income countries over the last 30 years. Methods Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) for IE, stratified by sex, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (3) between 1990 and 2019. The United Kingdom and selected countries with comparable health expenditure (EU15+ countries) were included. Relative changes in ASMR over the observation period were determined and trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Results Between 1990–2019 ASMR from IE increased for both sexes in all included countries except Finland (−20.1% in males, −15.1% in females) and Austria (−8.98% in males, −22.6% in females). The largest increase in ASMR in males was observed in Greece (+197%), while the largest increase in females was observed in Italy (246%). Joinpoint regression analysis identified multiple significant trends within this observation period (Figure 1; clear squares indicate males, filled circles indicate females and lines represent modelled trends based on joinpoint data). At the end of the observation period the Netherlands had the highest ASMR in both males and females (2.28/100,000 in males and 2.37/100,000 in females), while Finland had the lowest ASMR in both males and females (0.45/100,000 and 0.23/100,000 respectively). Conclusions Significant international variation in IE mortality rates were observed. While mortality from IE has generally increased over the last 30 years, recent data suggest this trend may now be plateauing or even reversing in certain countries. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1

Time series of diabetes attributable mortality from 2008 to 2017

Purpose Diabetes is a growing health problem. The aim of this study was to capture time trends in mortality associated with diabetes. Methods The mortality database of the Veneto region (Italy) includes both the underlying causes of death, and all the diseases mentioned in the death certificate. The annual percent change (APC) in age-standardized rates from 2008 to 2017 was computed by the Joinpoint Regression Program. Results Overall 453,972 deaths (56,074 with mention of diabetes) were observed among subjects aged ≥ 40 years. Mortality rates declined for diabetes as the underlying cause of death and from diabetes-related circulatory diseases. The latter declined especially in females − 4.4 (CI 95% − 5.3/− 3.4), while in males the APC was − 2.8 (CI 95% − 4.0/− 1.6). Conclusion We observed a significant reduction in mortality during the period 2008–2017 in diabetes either as underlying cause of death or when all mentions of diabetes in the death certificate were considered.