scholarly journals Estimating The Seasonally Varying Effect of Climatic Factors On The District-Level Incidence of Acute Watery Diarrhea Among Under-Five Children of Iran, 2014-2018: A Bayesian Hierarchical Spatiotemporal Model

Author(s):  
Masoud Masinaei

Abstract Background Under-five years old acute watery diarrhea (U5AWD) accounts for most diarrheal diseases' burden due to rotavirus infection. It is claimed that many climatic and socioeconomic factors are associated with U5AWD. However, little information is available about the occurrence of U5AWD in Iran and the adjusted effect of potential determinants. Methods We collected a dataset containing the seasonal numbers of U5AWD cases at the district level of Iran through MOHME. We calculated the district level Standardized Incidence Ratio and Moran's I values to detect the significant clusters of U5AWD over sixteen seasons from 2014 to 2018. In addition, we examined twelve Bayesian hierarchical models to recognize the strongest in predicting the seasonal number of incidents. Results Iran has many hotspots of U5AWD, especially in southeast areas. An extended spatiotemporal model with seasonally varying coefficients and space-time interaction outperformed other models, becoming our proposal in modeling U5AWD. Temperature had a global positive relationship with seasonal U5AWD in districts (IRR: 1.0497, 95% CrI: 1.0254–1.0748), due to its varying effects in winter (IRR: 1.0877, 95% CrI: 1.0408–1.1375) and fall (IRR: 1.0866, 95% CrI: 1.0405–1.1357) seasons. Also, elevation (IRR: 0.9997, 95% CrI: 0.9996–0.9998), piped drinking water (IRR: 0.9948, 95% CrI: 0.9933–0.9964), public sewerage network (IRR: 0.9965, 95% CrI: 0.9938–0.9992), years of schooling (IRR: 0.9649, 95% CrI: 0.944–0.9862), Infrastructure-to-Household Size Ratio (IRR: 0.9903, 95% CrI: 0.986–0.9946), wealth index (IRR: 0.9502, 95% CrI: 0.9231–0.9781) and urbanization (IRR: 0.9919, 95% CrI: 0.9893–0.9944) of districts were negatively associated with seasonal U5AWD incidence. Conclusions The development of specific alert systems could be a strategy to predict high-risk areas of U5AWD using climatic inputs. Also, the study anticipates a higher incidence of U5AWD in districts with weaker hygiene and socioeconomic status. Therefore, policymakers should take appropriate preventive actions in such areas.

Vaccine ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (51) ◽  
pp. 7846-7850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paba Palihawadana ◽  
Gagandeep Kang ◽  
Janakan Navaratnasingam ◽  
Geethani Galagoda ◽  
Janaki Abeynayake ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Shakil Ahmed

Abstract A total of 12,69,944 under five years Childs were included in this study among them 1,80,067 Children were acute watery diarrhea (AWD) and 19,502 Children were bloody diarrhea respectively. Among them, 47,755 Childs was taken antibiotic treatment for AWD. The overall prevalence of acute watery diarrhea ~ 14% (prevalence = 0.142; 95% CI = 0.141, 0.142). On the other hand the prevalence of bloody diarrhea ~ 2% (prevalence = 0.015; 95% CI = 0.015, 0.016). The prevalence of antibiotic treatment for AWD was ~ 27% (prevalence = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.26, 0.27) among the under five years old children in DH survey regions in the world. The prevalence of acute watery diarrhea was higher ~ 17% (prevalence = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.16, 0.17) in the Latin America DHS survey region. The minimum prevalence of AWD was almost equal between South East Asia and Central Asia DHS survey regions ~ 12% (prevalence = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.11, 0.12) and ~ 12% (prevalence = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.10, 0.13) respectively. On the other hand the prevalence of AWD between Europe and West North and Central Africa DHS survey regions ~ 16% (prevalence = 0.16, 95% CI = 0.15, 0.16) and ~ 15% (prevalence = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.14, 0.15) correspondingly. In the central Asia of 15,089 under five Childs were included in the survey. Among them 1,748 Children were AWD and 967 Childs had taken antibiotic treatment for AWD. The highest prevalence of antibiotic use for AWD in Central Asia ~ 55% (prevalence=(967/1748) = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.52, 0.59) and Europe DH survey region ~ 44% (prevalence=(5483/12502) = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.43, 0.45). The lowest prevalence of antibiotic use for under five Child AWD was ~ 23% (prevalence=(11918/51328) = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.22, 0.24) in the DH survey region South East Asia. On the other hand the DH survey region Latin America and West North and Central Africa region the prevalence of antibiotic use for AWD were ~ 30% (prevalence=(7887/26396) = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.29, 0.31) and ~ 24% (prevalence=(21500/88093) = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.23, 0.24). The southeast Asia DH survey region countries DHS 2007 (Bangladesh), DHS 2014 and 2010 (Cambodia), DHS 2017 and 2012 (Indonesia), DHS 2009 (Maldives), DHS 2015–2016 (Myanmar), DHS 2012–2013 (Pakistan), DHS 2017 and 2013 (Philippines), and DHS 2009–2010 (Timor-Leste) were higher risks of AWD for drinking unimproved water sources. The prevalence of antibiotic use for u5c AWD was shown the highest prevalence in DHS 2007 (~ 44%), DHS 2012 (~ 49%), DHS 2016 (~ 40%), and DHS 2017 (~ 65%) from DH survey 2006 to 2018 in South East & Central Asia. The linear trend analysis showed an upward trend for using antibiotic of AWD in the South East & Central Asia DH survey region.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Shakil Ahmed

Abstract A total 12,69,944 under five year Childs were included in this study among them 1,80,067 Childs were acute watery diarrhea (AWD) and 19,502 Childs were bloody diarrhea respectively. Among them 47,755 Childs were taken antibiotic treatment for AWD. The overall prevalence of acute watery diarrhea ~ 14% (prevalence = 0.142; 95% CI = 0.141, 0.142). On the other hand the prevalence of bloody diarrhea ~ 2% (prevalence = 0.015; 95% CI = 0.015, 0.016). The prevalence of antibiotic treatment for AWD was ~ 27% (prevalence = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.26, 0.27) among the under five years old children in DH survey regions in the world. The prevalence of acute watery diarrhea was higher ~ 17% (prevalence = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.16, 0.17) in the Latin America DHS survey region. The minimum prevalence of AWD was almost equal between South East Asia and Central Asia DHS survey regions ~ 12% (prevalence = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.11, 0.12) and ~ 12% (prevalence = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.10, 0.13) respectively. On the other hand the prevalence of AWD between Europe and West North and Central Africa DHS survey regions ~ 16% (prevalence = 0.16, 95% CI = 0.15, 0.16) and ~ 15% (prevalence = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.14, 0.15) correspondingly. In the central Asia of 15,089 under five Childs were included in the survey. Among them 1,748 Childs were AWD and 967 Childs had taken antibiotic treatment for AWD. The highest prevalence of antibiotic use for AWD in Central Asia ~ 55% (prevalence=(967/1748) = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.52, 0.59) and Europe DH survey region ~ 44% (prevalence=(5483/12502) = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.43, 0.45). The lowest prevalence of antibiotic use for under five Child AWD was ~ 23% (prevalence=(11918/51328) = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.22, 0.24) in the DH survey region South East Asia. On the other hand the DH survey region Latin America and West North and Central Africa region the prevalence of antibiotic use for AWD were ~ 30% (prevalence=(7887/26396) = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.29, 0.31) and ~ 24% (prevalence=(21500/88093) = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.23, 0.24). The South East Asia DH survey region countries DHS 2007 (Bangladesh), DHS 2014 and 2010 (Cambodia), DHS 2017 and 2012 (Indonesia), DHS 2009 (Maldives), DHS 2015–2016 (Myanmar), DHS 2012–2013 (Pakistan), DHS 2017 and 2013 (Philippines), and DHS 2009–2010 (Timor-Leste) were higher risk of AWD for drinking unimproved water sources. The prevalence of antibiotic use for u5c AWD was shown highest prevalence in DHS 2007 (~ 44%), DHS 2012 (~ 49%), DHS 2016 (~ 40%), and DHS 2017 (~ 65%) from DH survey 2006 to 2018 in South East & Central Asia. The linear trend analysis showed that upward trend for using antibiotic of AWD in the South East & Central Asia DH survey region.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S428-S428
Author(s):  
Karen Cuttin ◽  
Elizabeth Dupont ◽  
Adama Mamby Keita ◽  
Samba Sow ◽  
Karen Kotloff

Abstract Background Diarrhea is a leading cause of death for Children Under Five Years Old (CUFYO) worldwide, and Mali has the second highest diarrhea-related case fatality rate among African countries. The World Health Organization’s Integrated Management for Childhood Illness (IMCI) handbook provides recommendations for management of acute watery diarrhea (AWD), including: increased fluids, continued feeding, and zinc supplementation. It restricts antibiotics to dysentery. The 2018 Malian Demographic and Health Survey noted low rates of rehydration and zinc use. This study aimed to evaluate how provider knowledge, beliefs, and practices (KBPs) align with IMCI recommendations for diagnosis and management of diarrhea in Mali. Methods This qualitative cross-sectional study interviewed 136 providers who manage diarrhea in CUFYO in Bamako, Mali from July - August 2017. Providers included: doctors (D), pharmacists (P), market vendors of allopathic medications (MV), traditional healers (TH), and vendors of traditional medicines (TV). Participants were randomly selected and presented with scenarios depicting diarrheal syndromes. They provided a diagnosis, etiology of illness, and management recommendations. Providers were surveyed on KBPs regarding IMCI recommendations. Results Only 43% of providers provided the IMCI definition of AWD. Participant-IMCI concordant diagnosis varied by provider group for AWD (D-73%, P-67%, MV-31%, TH-18%, TV-40%), Dysentery (D-38%, P-75%, MV-38%, TH-61%, TV-40%), and Some Dehydration (D-31%, P-4%, MV-4%, TH-7%, TV-40%). Only 41% of all providers identified dehydration as a sequela of AWD; 18% noted mortality. Etiologies of AWD cited included: infection, teething, diet, hygiene, and many others. Participants volunteered treatment of AWD with fluids (D-52%, P-8%, MV-0%, TH-0%, TV-0%), but not zinc (0%). MK alone offered inappropriate use of antibiotics for AWD (23%). Conclusion Provider identification and management of diarrheal syndromes in CUFYO remain largely inconsistent with IMCI recommendations across all sectors of providers interviewed, specifically for rehydration therapy and zinc supplementation. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures


2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 235
Author(s):  
Wiliam Jayadi Iskandar ◽  
I wayan Sukardi ◽  
Yati Soenarto

Background Diarrhea is still the leading cause of children’s mortality worldwide and the main cause of malnutrition. Meanwhile, malnourished children are proven to have more severe, prolonged, and frequent episodes of diarrhea, making them a vicious circle.Objective To investigate the risk of nutritional status on diarrheal severity and duration as well as length of hospital stay.Methods We conducted a cross sectional study involving 176 under five children who admitted to Mataram Province Hospital with acute diarrhea since January until December 2013. We analyzed data using logistic regression model.Results Most subjects were infants (median 12 months, range 1-53), male (56.8%), well-nourished (85.8%), admitted with acute watery diarrhea (97.2%), mild-to-moderate dehydration (71.6%), diarrhea severity score ≥11 (74.4%), duration of diarrhea ≤7 days (96.6%), and length of stay <5 days (73.3%). Logistic regression model indicated significant risk of nutritional status on length of hospital stay (adjusted OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.06 to 6.38), but neither diarrheal severity (adjusted OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.38 to 2.80) nor duration of diarrhea (adjusted OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.13 to 10.89) indicated significant risks. However, malnourished children had more severe (76% versus 74.2%) and longer duration (4% versus 3.3%) of diarrhea than well-nourished children.Conclusion Nutritional status is the risk for length of hospital stay in under-five children admitted with acute diarrhea. [


2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna-Pendo Deogratias ◽  
Martha F Mushi ◽  
Laurent Paterno ◽  
Dennis Tappe ◽  
Jeremiah Seni ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumeya Tadesse Abegaz ◽  
Addisu Jember Zeleke ◽  
Zelalem Tilahun Tesfaye

Abstract Background Acute diarrhea management is solely aimed at fluid replacement and nutritional support while antibiotics have a very limited role. Antibiotic treatment is recommended only for bloody diarrhea (dysentery), cholera and invasive bacterial diarrhea. This study is launched to assess the appropriateness of antibiotic use for the management of acute diarrhea among under-five children in Gondar town primary care centers.Methods Institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted in three primary care centers located in Gondar town, Northwest Ethiopia. Children aged from 2–59 months who visited the three primary care centers from September 12, 2015 to September 10, 2016 and received treatment for acute diarrhea were included in the study. We selected 176 cases from Azezo Health Center, 166 from Poly Health Center and 80 from Woleka Health Center. Cases were drawn using systematic random sampling technique. The findings of the study were summarized using tables and figures; binary logistic analysis was used to identify association between the independent and outcome variables at 95% confidence level where p < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.Results The mean age of the study participants was 19.1 ± 12.8 months. The majority (60.8%) were males. Appropriate antibiotic use was recorded in less than half (47.2%) of the study subjects. Almost all (98.1%) of children subjected to inappropriate antibiotic use were those with watery diarrhea treated with antibiotics. Out of 253 children who received antidiarrheal antibiotics 202 (79.8%) had acute watery diarrhea which should not be treated with antibiotics. Children diagnosed with acute watery diarrhea were less likely to receive treatment qualified as appropriate antibiotic use [AOR: 0.003 (0.001,0.017)]. Conversely, receiving no antibiotic [AOR: 391.00 (92.46, 1653.37)] and prescriber’s profession of Clinical Nurse [AOR: 3.57 (1.02, 12.51)] were positive predictors for appropriate antibiotic use.Conclusion The findings of the study confirm the prevalence of widespread inappropriate antibiotic use on under-five children presenting with acute diarrhea. The findings can be used by stakeholders as input for promoting appropriate antibiotic use in the healthcare system as well as to deter antimicrobial resistance.


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