scholarly journals Cancer-Specific Survival Analysis in Patients with Gastric Cancer: Based on Competing Risk Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaopei Zhu ◽  
Yuhang Zhu ◽  
Juan Li ◽  
Weijing Meng ◽  
Xiaoxuan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Tumor Diameter ◽  
Competing Risk Model ◽  
Cancer Data ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
The Impact

Abstract BackgroundCompeting risk events are prone to cause bias in the estimation of all-cause mortality. In order to eliminate the impact of competing events on survival analysis, we constructed a competing risk model. Besides, we attempted to build nomograms to predict gastric cancer-specific mortality (GCSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM).MethodsThe competing risk model was constructed to evaluate all-cause mortality, GCSM and OCM, by using the gastric cancer data from 2004 to 2013 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) dataset. Nomograms were used to predict the risk of individual dying from gastric cancer and other causes based on competing risk model.ResultsA total of 15299 cases were screened out. The 1-year, 5-year, and 8-year survival probabilities were 48.9 %, 22.1 %, and 16.4 % for all-cause mortality, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that sex, race, marital status, age at diagnosis, malignant, tumor diameter and TNM staging were all significant prognostic factors of gastric cancer. The GCSM and OCM models showed the risk of death treated by radiotherapy decreased from 0.689 to 0.494 after considering competing risk events. Furthermore, the nomograms showed good accuracy for GCSM prediction of the 1-,5-,8-year, the AUC values of the nomograms were 0.801 [95% CI, 0.793–0.808], 0.820 [95% CI, 0.810–0.829] and 0.823 [95% CI, 0.808–0.844]. The AUC values of the nomograms for predicting 1-, 5-, and 8-year OCM were 0.784 [95% CI, 0.778–0.792], 0.755 [95% CI, 0.748–0.765] and 0.747 [95% CI, 0.739–0.759].ConclusionsOverall, the prognosis of patients with Gastric cancer is poor. The competing risk model could accurately evaluate the probability of dying from gastric cancer and other causes. Nomograms showed relatively good performance and could be considered as convenient individualized predictive tools for predicting GCSM and OCM.

scholarly journals Office, Central, and Ambulatory Blood Pressure for Predicting First Stroke in Older Adults: A Community-Based Cohort Study

Hypertension ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Matsumoto ◽  
Zhezhen Jin ◽  
Shunichi Homma ◽  
Mitchell S.V. Elkind ◽  
Joseph E. Schwartz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Applanation Tonometry ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Older Population ◽  
Competing Risk Model ◽  
The Impact

Hypertension is the most prevalent modifiable risk factor for stroke. Office blood pressure (BP) measurements may have limitations in defining the impact of hypertension on stroke. Our aim was to compare the stroke risk for office, central, and ambulatory BP measurements in a predominantly older population-based prospective cohort. Participants in the CABL study (Cardiovascular Abnormalities and Brain Lesions; n=816; mean age, 70.8±9.0 years; 39.8% men) underwent applanation tonometry of the radial artery for central BP and 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring. During a follow-up of 9.6±3.1 years, stroke occurred in 76 participants (9.3%). Among office BP variables, only diastolic BP was associated with stroke in multivariable competing risk model ( P =0.016). None of the central BP variables showed a significant association with stroke. Conversely, all ambulatory systolic and diastolic BP variables were significantly associated with stroke after adjustment for clinical confounders (all P <0.005). In an additional multivariable competing risk model including both ambulatory systolic and diastolic BP values obtained at the same time of the day, diastolic BP was more strongly associated with stroke than systolic BP in 24-hour, daytime, and nighttime periods (all P <0.05). Therefore, in a predominantly older population-based cohort, office diastolic BP was weakly associated with incident stroke; no central BP variable was prognostic of stroke. However, all ambulatory systolic and diastolic BP values were significantly associated with stroke in multivariable competing risk analyses. Moreover, ambulatory diastolic BP was a stronger predictor of stroke than ambulatory systolic BP.

scholarly journals Introduction to Competing Risk Model in the Epidemiological Research

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 98-102
Author(s):  
Abbas Alipour ◽  
Abolghasem Shokri ◽  
Fatemeh Yasari ◽  
Soheila Khodakarim
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Competing Risks ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Cox Model ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Competing Risk Model ◽  
Hazards Model

Background and aims: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a public health challenge worldwide, with adverse consequences of kidney failure, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and premature death. The CKD leads to the end-stage of renal disease (ESRD) if late/not diagnosed. Competing risk modeling is a major issue in epidemiology research. In epidemiological study, sometimes, inappropriate methods (i.e. Kaplan-Meier method) have been used to estimate probabilities for an event of interest in the presence of competing risks. In these situations, competing risk analysis is preferred to other models in survival analysis studies. The purpose of this study was to describe the bias resulting from the use of standard survival analysis to estimate the survival of a patient with ESRD and to provide alternate statistical methods considering the competing risk. Methods: In this retrospective study, 359 patients referred to the hemodialysis department of Shahid Ayatollah Ashrafi Esfahani hospital in Tehran, and underwent continuous hemodialysis for at least three months. Data were collected through patient’s medical history contained in the records (during 2011-2017). To evaluate the effects of research factors on the outcome, cause-specific hazard model and competing risk models were fitted. The data were analyzed using Stata (a general-purpose statistical software package) software, version 14 and SPSS software, version 21, through descriptive and analytical statistics. Results: The median duration of follow-up was 3.12 years and mean age at ESRD diagnosis was 66.47 years old. Each year increase in age was associated with a 98% increase in hazard of death. In this study, statistical analysis based on the competing risk model showed that age, age of diagnosis, level of education (under diploma), and body mass index (BMI) were significantly associated with death (hazard ratio [HR]=0.98, P<0.001, HR=0.99, P<0.001, HR=2.66, P=0.008, and HR=0.98, P<0.020, respectively). Conclusion: In analysis of competing risk data, it was found that providing both the results of the event of interest and those of competing risks were of importance. The Cox model, which ignored the competing risks, presented the different estimates and results as compared to the proportional sub-distribution hazards model. Thus, it was revealed that in the analysis of competing risks data, the sub-distribution proportion hazards model was more appropriate than the Cox model.

scholarly journals Semi-competing risk model to predict perioperative and oncologic outcomes after radical cystectomy

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 317-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Peak ◽  
Andrew Chapple ◽  
Grayson Coon ◽  
Ashok Hemal
Keyword(s):  
Radical Cystectomy ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Oncologic Outcomes ◽  
Disease Stage ◽  
Competing Risk Model ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Major Complications ◽  
Increased Risk

Background: To utilize a semi-competing risk model to predict perioperative and oncologic outcomes after radical cystectomy and to compare the findings with the univariate Cox regression model. Methods: We reviewed the Institutional Review Board approved database of radical cystectomy of 316 patients who had undergone robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) or open radical cystectomy between 2006 and 2016. Demographic data, perioperative outcomes, complications, metastasis, and survival were analyzed. The Bayesian variable selection method was utilized to obtain models for each hazard function in the semi-competing risks. Results: Of 316 patients treated, 48% and 18% experienced any or major complication respectively within 30 days. Intracorporeal RARC was associated with decreased metastasis risk. Extracorporeal RARC was associated with marginally decreased risks of overall complications or major complications. Patients with advanced cancer had an increased risk of metastasis, death after metastasis and death after complication. Positive nodes were associated with an increased risk of death without overall or major complications and increased risk of death after metastasis occurs. When a serious complication was taken into account there was no significant difference in mortality, irrespective of disease stage. Conclusions: A semi-competing risk model provides relatively more accurate information in comparison to Cox regression analysis in predicting risk factors for complications and metastasis in patients undergoing radical cystectomy.

scholarly journals Prognostic analysis of very early onset pancreatic cancer: a population-based analysis

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e8412
Author(s):  
Dongjun Dai ◽  
Yanmei Wang ◽  
Xinyang Hu ◽  
Hongchuan Jin ◽  
Xian Wang
Keyword(s):  
Pancreatic Cancer ◽  
Early Onset ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Subdistribution Hazard ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The Impact

Background We aimed to use competing risk model to assess whether very early onset pancreatic cancer (VEOPC ) (<45 years) had a worse prognosis than older pancreatic cancer (PC) patients, and to build a competing risk nomogram for predicting the risk of death of VEOPC. Methods We selected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients as our cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The impact of cancer specific death was estimated by competing risk analysis. Multivariate Fine-Gray regression for proportional hazards modeling of the subdistribution hazard (SH) model based nomogram was constructed, which was internally validated by discrimination and calibration with 1,000 bootstraps. Results Our cohort included 1,386 VEOPC patients and 53,940 older patients. We observed that in unresectablePDAC patients, VEOPC had better cancer specific survival (CSS) than each older group (45–59 years, 60–69 years, 70–79 years and >79 years). There was no significant prognostic difference between VEOPC and each older group in resectablePDAC. Our competing nomogram showed well discrimination and calibration by internal validation. Conclusion For unresectable PDAC patients, VEOPC had better CSS than older patients. Our competing risk nomogram might be an easy-to-use tool for the specific death prediction of VEOPC patients with PDAC.

Expanded renal transplantation: a competing risk model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (12) ◽  
pp. 2539-2553
Author(s):  
Pablo Martínez-Camblor ◽  
Jacobo de Uña-Álvarez ◽  
Carmen Díaz Corte
Keyword(s):  
Renal Transplantation ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Competing Risk Model ◽  
Model Approach

Abstract P146: Comparative Effectiveness Of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Atrial Fibrillation

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirin Ardeshirrouhanifard ◽  
Huijun An ◽  
Ravi Goyal ◽  
Mukaila Raji ◽  
Caleb Alexander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Direct Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Competing Risk ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Systemic Embolism ◽  
Competing Risk Model

Objective: Post-hoc analysis of three pivotal clinical trials suggests no difference in risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism among cancer patients with atrial fibrillation treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) vs. warfarin. However, these studies were underpowered and also do not reflect the context of real-world use. We compared the effectiveness of DOACs versus warfarin for the risk of stroke or systemic embolism and all-cause death in patients with NVAF. Methods: We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data from 2009 to 2016 and included patients aged ≥66 years diagnosed with cancer (breast, bladder, colorectal, esophagus, lung, ovary, kidney, pancreas, prostate, stomach or uterus) and NVAF. We limited the cohort to patients who newly initiated warfarin or DOACs (from 2010 to 2016) with no history of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism. The primary outcome was hospitalization due to ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and the secondary outcome was all-cause death. We used Fine and Gray’s competing risk model, while treating death as a competing risk, to determine the association of oral anticoagulants with the incidence of stroke or systemic embolism. We also adjusted the analysis using inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW). Additionally, an IPTW-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed for all-cause death. Results: Of 1,028,784 patients with cancer, 158,744 (15.4%) were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. After applying all inclusion criteria, the final study cohort included 7,334 cancer patients diagnosed with incident NVAF who newly initiated warfarin or DOACs, of which 3,194 (43.6%) used warfarin and 4,140 (56.4%) used DOACs. The unadjusted rate of stroke or systemic embolism was similar among warfarin and DOACs users (1.20 vs. 1.32 cases per 100 person-years, p=0.27). In the IPTW weighted competing risk model, the use of DOACs was not associated with an increased risk of stroke or systemic embolism compared with warfarin users (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.41, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.90-2.20). However, DOACs users had a significantly lower risk of all-cause death compared with warfarin users (HR 0.82, CI 0.74-0.91). Conclusion: Among cancer patients diagnosed with NVAF, DOACs had a similar risk for stroke or systemic embolism compared to warfarin, although DOAC use was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality.

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