Modeling the Dynamics and Forecasting the fourth Peak of COVID-19 in Iran Using PSO Algorithm

Background and aims: Iran had passed the third peak of COVID-19 pandemic, and was probably witnessing the fourth peak at the time of this study. This study aimed to model the spread of COVID-19 in Iran in order to predict the short-term future trend of COVID-19 from April 23, 2021 to May 7, 2021. Methods: In this study, a modified SEIR epidemic spread model was proposed and the data on the number of cases reported by Iranian government from February 20, 2020 to April 23, 2021 were used to fit the proposed model to the reported data using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Then the short-term future trend of COVID-19 cases were predicted by using the estimated parameters. Results: The results indicated that the effective reproduction number increased in Nowruz (i.e., Persian New Year, 1400) and it was estimated to be 1.28 in the given period. According to the results from the short-term prediction of COVID-19 cases, the number of active confirmed cases in the fourth peak was estimated to be 516411 cases on May 2, 2021. Conclusion: Following the results from our short-term prediction, implementing strict social distancing policies was found absolutely necessary for relieving the Iran’s health care system of the tremendous burden of COVID-19.

Epidemiology of Mental Disorder Symptoms in Students of University of Bojnord: The Role of Demographic Characteristics and Cognitive Emotion Regulation Strategies

Background and aims: Mental health problems are considered as important public health issues. This study aimed, firstly, to investigate the epidemiology of mental disorders’ symptoms among the students of Bojnord University and examine the role of demographic characteristics in the prevalence of the given symptoms; and, secondly, to explore and compare the predictive role of adaptive and maladaptive emotion regulation strategies in identifying symptoms of different mental disorders. Methods: A total of 351 students from Bojnord University completing their 2018-2019 academic year were recruited using cluster sampling method and responded to Symptom Checklist-SCL90 and Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics including mean, standard deviation, frequency and percentage, as well as multiple regression analysis. Results: According to the findings from this epidemiological study, 33% of the students suffered from moderate symptoms of mental disorders, while 14% of them suffered from severe symptoms. Demographic characteristics of gender, marital status, and place of origin (i.e., being indigenous/non-indigenous) were not found to exert a significant effect on the prevalence of symptoms of mental disorders. The results of multiple regression analysis also indicated that cognitive emotion regulation strategies were capable of predicting all nine dimensions of mental disorder symptoms. In this regard, the maladaptive strategies were discovered to play a stronger role in predicting mental disorders compared to adaptive strategies. Conclusions: Mental disorders were very common among university students. No significant relationship was detected between the prevalence of mental disorders’ symptoms and gender, marital status, and place of origin. The study findings were also found to support the trans-diagnostic role of the emotion regulation in mental disorders.

Antibiotics Resistance Pattern of Staphylococcus aureus Isolated From In-patients of an Orthopaedic Hospital in North-Western Nigeria

Background and aims: Staphylococcus aureus, an important pathogen in bone diseases, is a highly multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacterium. This study aimed to investigate the antibiotic resistance among S. aureus isolated from patients on admission in an orthopaedic hospital. Methods: In this cross-sectional research, 140 samples comprising urine samples, wound swabs, and nasal swabs were collected from 49 patients on admission. Samples were cultured and screened for S. aureus following standard procedures. Using the agar-disk diffusion method, the isolates were subjected to antibiotics susceptibility tests. Results: S. aureus were isolated from 26 (18.6%) samples, and wound swabs were found to have the highest number of the S. aureus isolates with 12 (46.2%). Among the 26 S. aureus isolated, 25 (96.2%) isolates were resistant to at least four or more of the tested antibiotics. There were 23 (88.5%) MDR isolates, while there were only 2 (7.6%) extensively drug resistant ones. The number of methicillin-resistant S. aureus were 17 (65.4% of the isolates), while the number of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus were 9 (34.6% of the isolates). A total of 22 (84.6%) isolates had multi-antibiotic resistance (MAR) index greater than 0.2. Inducible clindamycin resistance of 2 (7.6%) was observed. Conclusion: This study showed that the S. aureus isolated from the patients were resistant to multiple antibiotics. Regular surveillance of antibiotic resistance is of utmost importance, since it facilitates the design or development of the treatment regimens that could check the spread of antimicrobial resistance.

Public Trust in Healthcare System in Iran: A Rapid Assessment During the COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran

Background and aims: Public health policies and programs should be adapted to the level of public trust in the healthcare system, as an indicator of the public support level. Accordingly, the data about public trust level in the healthcare system is considered as a critical requirement for managing public health crises. This study aimed to rapidly assess the public trust in the healthcare system during the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, as well as to evaluate the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on this trust. Methods: This cross-sectional and web-based study which was conducted in Iran during the COVID-19 epidemic included adults aged 18-60 years. A probability proportional to size multistage random sampling was applied and performed in 15 provinces of the country. Data on the main sources of information about COVID-19, trust in healthcare system, fear level of COVID-19, and demographics were collected via an electronic questionnaire. Multiple linear regression was applied, and adjusted regression coefficients and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. Results: A total of 5250 adults (response rate: 76%) were included in the study. The mean of reported trust scores was 50.3±22.8, and that of fear scores was 72.0±17.8. The highest (65%) and lowest (28%) levels of trust were observed among participants from the lowest and highest SES, respectively. Gender (male) (P=0.006), higher levels of education (P<0.001), higher socio-economic status (P<0.001), and higher fear scores (P<0.001) were independently correlated with the lower level of ⦰ trust in healthcare system. Conclusion: It was found that the public trust in Iran’s healthcare system was not high enough at the time of the COVID-19 epidemic in the country, especially among higher social class population.

The Relationship Between Physical Activity, Body Image, and Eating Disorders During the COVID-19 Pandemic in High-School Girls

Background and aims: Decreased levels of physical activity (PA) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic can cause physical and psychological problems for individuals. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between PA, body image, and eating disorders (EDs) during the COVID-19 pandemic among high school girls in Farsan, Iran. Methods: This was a descriptive-analytical cross-sectional study, and the research population included female high school students from Farsan, Iran, who were studying in 2019-2020. In this regard, 535 high school girls (age: 15.95±1.42, weight: 53.07±10.01, BMI: 20.14±3.48) were selected based on cluster-random sampling to participate in the study. Multidimensional Body Self-relation Questionnaire (MBSRQ), Baecke’s Physical Activity Questionnaire, and the Eating Disorder Diagnostic Scale (EDDS) were used to collect data, and Pearson correlation coefficients were administered to establish statistical relationships. Results: The results indicated significant positive correlations between body image and PA levels (r=0.304, P=0.001). However, no significant correlations were observed between body image and anorexia nervosa (AN) (r=-0.035, P=0.424), bulimia nervosa (BN) (r=-0.033, P=0.446), and binge ED (r=-0.041, P=0.339). Likewise, no relationships were observed between PA and AN (r=0.084, P=0.052), BN (r=0.073, P=0.092), as well as binge ED (r=0.071, P=0.099). Conclusion: During the COVID-19 pandemic, PA was positively associated with body image but not with EDs. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that PA improved body image in adolescent girls during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Study of the Epidemiology and Use of Condoms in Vulnerable Women Referring to Damage Reduction Centers in Shiraz During 2015-2016

Background and aims: Female sex workers (FSWs) play an essential role in the transmission of HIV and are considered critical groups compared to the public groups of society and their customers. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the status of sexual intercourse among prostitutes in Shiraz in 2015-2016. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study conducted on 162 prostitutes referred to Shiraz transitional damage reduction centers and the information was gathered through a checklist. Results: The results showed that the mean age at the first vaginal intercourse was 16.57±3.65. In 62.3% of people, the main reason for prostitution was the need for money to help the family. It was also found that 39.5% of prostitutes had anal sex, and more than 95% of them did not use condoms during sex. There was also a statistically significant relationship (P<0.01) between the age of sexual intercourse and education level. Conclusion: The results of this study demonstrated that prostitutes initiated the first sexual intercourse at a very young age, and increase in the education level postponed the first sexual intercourse. Otherwise stated, the first sexual intercourse can be delayed by increasing the level of education.

Evaluation of Breastfeeding in 6-24 Month Children in South of Iran

Background and aims: The World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations International Children’s Fund have recommended that breastfeeding be continued until two years of age or over. This study aimed to investigate the duration of breastfeeding and weaning in children aged 6-24 months in south of Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2017 on 1653 children aged 6-24 months in Fars province of Iran. A multi-stage sampling was used and the data were obtained using a questionnaire including questions about breastfeeding and some related factors, as well as demographic questions about the children and their parents. The required information was collected by visiting and interviewing those mothers who had children aged 6-24 months in their homes. Data were evaluated using SPSS software (version 20.0) and performing descriptive and analytical statistics such as independent samples t test and one-way ANOVA. Results: On average, the children were breastfed up to 18.64±7.40 months of age and the mean age of initiation of complementary feeding was 5.86±1.04 months. Breastfeeding was stopped for 35.6% of children at the age of 24 months and higher. Mothers having had a normal vaginal delivery had a longer lactation period than mothers who had had cesarean delivery (19.27 and 18.05 months, respectively) (P=0.021). Conclusion: A decrease was observed in the mean duration of breastfeeding in this study compared to that obtained in the previous studies, and this decrease was found to be associated with the increase in the occurrence of cesarean delivery in mothers. Therefore, it was recommended that further comprehensive investigations be carried out in this regard.

Prevention of Social Stigma Related to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

As a result of the global crisis related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), confusion, anxiety, fear, and some psychological effects have been created among the general population in this global village. Unfortunately, these factors have provoked inappropriate behavior converting the infection to the virus to a social stigma, which can affect the dignity of people died due to COVID-19. In addition to the patient, the stigma can also affect interpersonal relationship among nurses, family members, friends, as well as social relationships. In this critical situation, we need to take care of each other with empathy, which is the key to successfully cope with the issue and prevent social stigma associated with COVID-19. This commentary evaluates the effects of social stigma related to COVID-19 and suggests some practical measures for the world communities to deal with this global public health problem.

Anxiety Status of Instagram Users during Coronavirus Disease in Iran in 2020: A Cross-sectional Study

Background and aims: Today, with the increasing prevalence of COVID-19 in the world, the general population with excessive worry due to media reports has a higher level of psychological distress. Therefore, the present study aimed to determine the state of anxiety among Instagram users in 2020. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study that was conducted from June to July 2020 on 313 Instagram users. Coronavirus Anxiety Scale was used to measure anxiety caused by coronavirus in Iran. The subjects entered the study by availability sampling and filled out the questionnaire through the features of Instagram such as posts and stories. Chi-square test was used to analyze the relationship between independent and dependent variables according to the nature of the variable. The significance level was considered to be P<0.05. Results: Out of 313 participants in the study, 218 (69.6%) were in the age range of 19-35 years. Additionally, 50.5% of them were male and the majority of the participants had academic education. Overall, 21.4% of the participants had moderate to severe anxiety. There was no significant relationship between the participants’ levels of anxiety and demographic variables (age groups, gender, and level of education) (P>0.05). Conclusion: The results of chi-square test showed that no significant relationship was observed between the dimensions of anxiety based on the demographic characteristics of individuals such as age groups (P=0.256), gender (P=0.644), and level of education (P=0.415).