scholarly journals Semi-competing risk model to predict perioperative and oncologic outcomes after radical cystectomy

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 317-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Peak ◽  
Andrew Chapple ◽  
Grayson Coon ◽  
Ashok Hemal

Background: To utilize a semi-competing risk model to predict perioperative and oncologic outcomes after radical cystectomy and to compare the findings with the univariate Cox regression model. Methods: We reviewed the Institutional Review Board approved database of radical cystectomy of 316 patients who had undergone robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) or open radical cystectomy between 2006 and 2016. Demographic data, perioperative outcomes, complications, metastasis, and survival were analyzed. The Bayesian variable selection method was utilized to obtain models for each hazard function in the semi-competing risks. Results: Of 316 patients treated, 48% and 18% experienced any or major complication respectively within 30 days. Intracorporeal RARC was associated with decreased metastasis risk. Extracorporeal RARC was associated with marginally decreased risks of overall complications or major complications. Patients with advanced cancer had an increased risk of metastasis, death after metastasis and death after complication. Positive nodes were associated with an increased risk of death without overall or major complications and increased risk of death after metastasis occurs. When a serious complication was taken into account there was no significant difference in mortality, irrespective of disease stage. Conclusions: A semi-competing risk model provides relatively more accurate information in comparison to Cox regression analysis in predicting risk factors for complications and metastasis in patients undergoing radical cystectomy.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 259-259
Author(s):  
Alexander Tward ◽  
Jonathan David Tward

259 Background: Exposure of Vietnam War Veterans to the defoliant Agent Orange (AO) has been linked to increased tumor stage of Veterans diagnosed with prostate cancer. However, information on the effect of exposure to treatment outcomes is lacking. The goal of this study was to evaluate oncologic outcomes in Veterans based on AO exposure history, accounting for known prognostic covariates not previously studied. Methods: United States military Veterans diagnosed with prostate adenocarcinoma born between the years 1930-1956 were identified from a large professionally curated institutional database. Evaluable patients had to have known AO exposure status, age, NCCN risk group, Charlson comorbidity score, smoking status, and whether initial therapy was surgical, radiation, or systemic. Risk of death, metastasis, and progression stratified by the type of initial therapy received was analyzed using Cox regression. Results: There were 70 AO exposed and 561 non-exposed Veterans identified, with a median follow-up of 10.0 years. AO exposure Veterans (AOeV) were significantly younger (64.0 versus 65.7 years, p=0.013) at diagnosis and presented at more advanced stages (e.g. Stage 4: 14.3% versus 2.5%) than non-exposed Veterans (non-AOeV). There was no difference for overall survival (HR=0.86, p=0.576, metastasis-free survival (HR=1.5, p=0.212), or progression-free survival (HR=0.67, p 0.060) between AOeV versus non-AOeV in analyses stratified by treatment received accounting for other prognostic covariates. Cigarette smoking was associated with a 2- 3-fold increased risk of death over those who quit or never smoked. Conclusions: Although AOeV do present at younger age and higher clinical stages than non-AOeV, the oncologic outcomes after accounting for treatments received and other prognostic covariates are similar. The implication is that AOeV are more likely to be recommended multimodality or systemic therapies at presentation.


Blood ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 130 (Suppl_1) ◽  
pp. 915-915
Author(s):  
Qian Wang ◽  
Changchuan Jiang ◽  
Yaning Zhang ◽  
Stuthi Perimbeti ◽  
Prateeth Pati ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction: Previous studies have shown that uninsured and Medicaid patients had higher morbidity and mortality due to limited access to healthcare. Disparities in cancer-related treatment and survival outcome by different insurance have been well established (Celie et al. J Surg Oncol.,2017). There are approximately 8,260 newly diagnosed HL cases in the US yearly (Master et al. Anticancer Res.2017). Therefore, we aim to investigate the variation of survival outcome and insurance status among HL patients. Methods: We extracted data from the US National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 18 program. HL patients who were diagnosed from 2007-2014 were included. Demographic information including age, sex, race, annual household income, education and insurance were also collected. Insurance includes uninsured, insured and any Medicaid. Race/ethnicity includes white, black and other (including American Indian/AK native, Asian/Pacific Islander). HL is categorized by using International Classification of Disease for Oncology (ICD-O-3) into classical HL NOS (CHL NOS), nodular lymphocyte predominant HL (NLP), lymphocyte rich (LR), mixed cellularity (MC), lymphocyte depleted (LD), and nodular sclerosis (NS). Treatment modality included RT alone, CT alone, RT and CT combined, and no RT or CT. Survival time was estimated by using the date of diagnosis and one of the following dates: date of death, date last known to be alive or date of the study cutoff (December 31, 2014). Chi-square test and multivariate Cox regression were performed by using SAS 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA). Exclusion criteria include: 1) patients with unknown or unspecified race; 2) patients who survived less than 6 months because time of radiotherapy/chemotherapy was not known to the time of diagnosis; 3) patients with any other type of cancer prior to the diagnosis of HL; 4) patients with second or later primaries, and who were not actively followed. Results: A total of 14.286 HL patients were included in the analysis. Table 1 indicates the insurance status and demographic and tumor characteristics among HL patients diagnosed between 2007 and 2014. Patients with black race, male sex, and B symptoms were more likely to be uninsured and on any Medicaid compared to other races, female sex and without B symptoms (p<0.01). As stage of disease increased, the percentage of insured patients decreased from 82.0% to 71.7%, (p<0.01). As with year of diagnosis advanced, the percentage of uninsured did not appear to be changed however the proportion of both those with insurance and any Medicaid decreased slightly by 2.4% (p<0.01). Those who received RT only were most likely to have insurance (89.6%) followed by combination modality (80.1%). As expected, uninsured status was associated with lower income and education level (p<0.01). Table 2 shows the insurance and hazard ratio among HL patients by year of diagnosis adjusting for race, sex, histology type, income, education, and year of diagnosis. Any Medicaid patients had the highest HR of death from 2007-2010 compared to insured patients. Without insurance was also associated with increased risk of death but only significant in 2008, HR=2.26, 95% CI (1.35, 3.80). The survival outcomes comparing different insurance status by age groups (<=29 and 30-64) were demonstrated in Kaplan-Meier Curve. In the age 29 or less group, insured patient showed has the best survival outcome followed by any Medicaid and then the uninsured. In the age 30-64 group, Medicaid patients had the worst survival outcome compared to those with or without insurance. Conclusion: Insurance status is one of the most important contributors of health disparity, especially in malignancy given the significant financial toxicity of therapies. We found that the proportion of the uninsured was trending up before the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Regarding the HL outcome, insured patients had the best survival across all age groups even though not significantly while Medicaid patients had the worst outcomes in almost all age groups, even worse than the uninsured after adjusting for the disease stage at diagnosis and sociodemographic factors. It would be of interest to explore the reason behind Medicaid patients' relatively poor outcomes. Future studies may also investigate how ACA, Medicaid expansion, and the possible upcoming republican healthcare reform influence HL outcome. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-41
Author(s):  
Yueh-Che Hsieh ◽  
Po-Yang Tsou ◽  
Yu-Hsun Wang ◽  
Christin Chih-Ting Chao ◽  
Wan-Chien Lee ◽  
...  

Objectives: Predictors for post-sepsis myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke are yet to be identified due to the competing risk of death. Methods: This study included all hospitalized patients with sepsis from National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of MI and stroke requiring hospitalization within 180 days following hospital discharge from the index sepsis episode. The association between predictors and post-sepsis MI and stroke were analyzed using cumulative incidence competing risk model that controlled for the competing risk of death. Results: Among 42 316 patients with sepsis, 1012 (2.4%) patients developed MI and stroke within 180 days of hospital discharge. The leading 5 predictors for post-sepsis MI and stroke are prior cerebrovascular diseases (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.74-2.32), intra-abdominal infection (HR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.71-2.20), previous MI (HR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.53-2.15), lower respiratory tract infection (HR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.43-1.85), and septic encephalopathy (HR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.26-2.06). Conclusions: Baseline comorbidities and sources of infection were associated with an increased risk of post-sepsis MI and stroke. The identified risk factors may help physicians select a group of patients with sepsis who may benefit from preventive measures, antiplatelet treatment, and other preventive measures for post-sepsis MI and stroke.


Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raed A. Joundi ◽  
Scott B. Patten ◽  
Jeanne V.A. Williams ◽  
Eric E. Smith

Background and Purpose: The association between physical activity (PA) and lower risk of stroke is well established, but the relationship between leisure sedentary time and stroke is less well studied. Methods: We used 9 years of the Canadian Community Health Survey between 2000 and 2012 to create a cohort of healthy individuals without prior stroke, heart disease, or cancer. We linked to hospital records to determine subsequent hospitalization or emergency department visit for stroke until December 31, 2017. We quantified the association between self-reported leisure sedentary time (categorized as <4, 4 to <6, 6 to <8, and 8+ hours/day) and risk of stroke using Cox regression models and competing risk regression, assessing for modification by PA, age, and sex and adjusting for demographic, vascular, and social factors. Results: There were 143 180 people in our cohort and 2965 stroke events in follow-up. Median time from survey response to stroke was 5.6 years. There was a 3-way interaction between leisure sedentary time, PA, and age. The risk of stroke with 8+ hours of sedentary time was significantly elevated only among individuals <60 years of age who were in the lowest PA quartile (fully adjusted hazard ratio, 4.50 [95% CI, 1.64–12.3]). The association was significant across multiple sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for mood disorders and when accounting for the competing risk of death. Conclusions: Excess leisure sedentary time of 8+ hours/day is associated with increased risk of long-term stroke among individuals <60 years of age with low PA. These findings support efforts to enhance PA and reduce sedentary time in younger individuals.


2021 ◽  
pp. jim-2020-001714
Author(s):  
Chia-Luen Huang ◽  
Tai-Wen Wang ◽  
Yong-Chen Chen ◽  
Je-Ming Hu ◽  
Po-Ming Ku ◽  
...  

Chronic inflammation, a hallmark of gout, is implicated in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. Thus, in theory, gout can be expected to increase the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Yet, results from several epidemiological studies have been inconclusive. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan dated from 2000 to 2013. The study cohort comprised 3581 patients with gout (the gout cohort) and 14,324 patients without gout (the non-gout cohort). The primary outcome was the incidence of AMI. To estimate the effect of gout on the risk of AMI, the Lunn-McNeil competing risk model was fitted to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The cumulative incidence of AMI was significantly higher in the gout cohort than in the non-gout cohort, resulting in an adjusted HR of 1.36 (95% CI 1.04 to 2.76). Further, HRs of gout with incident AMI were higher in patients without hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or hyperlipidemia (ranging from 1.63 to 2.09) than in those with each of these comorbidities (ranging from 0.95 to 1.13). The results of this study suggest that patients with gout have an increased risk of AMI. The AMI risk associated with gout was conditional on patients’ cardiovascular risk profile. Future work is needed to confirm these findings.


2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e17596-e17596
Author(s):  
Joel Roger Gingerich ◽  
Pascal Lambert ◽  
Malcolm Doupe ◽  
Marshall W. Pitz ◽  
Paul Joseph Daeninck

e17596 Background: Falls and fall-related injuries pose important patient safety challenges. We sought to measure if cancer patients are at increased risk of DF. Methods: This retrospective population-based study was conducted by linking the Manitoba Cancer Registry with health care use records from Manitoba, Canada. All community-dwelling patients who were diagnosed with cancer from 2005-08 were matched with up to three cancer-free controls. DF were defined as falls requiring hospitalization and were identified using ICD-9 and -10 billing codes. A competing risk model was used to compare DF between cancer and cancer-free cohorts and expressed as sub-hazard ratios (SHR). Comparisons across groups were adjusted for age, sex, medication use, region of residence, and the presence of co-morbidities. Results: 22,327 cancer patients were matched to 67,927 controls. The median age was 66.5 years, and the median length of follow-up was 1.98 years. The cumulative 1 and 3-year incidence of DF are shown in the Table. (The adjusted risk of DF was significantly decreased in cancer patients versus matched controls ≥ 80 years old; SHR = 0.82 (95% CI: 0.57 – 0.97, p = 0.03). The adjusted SHR for stages I, II, III and IV in those ≥ 80 were 0.83 (95% CI: 0.64 - 1.09, p 0.18), 0.69 (95% CI: 0.51 - 0.93, p = 0.02), 0.56 (95% CI: 0.38 - 0.83, p < 0.01), and 0.45 (95% CI: 0.31 - 0.66, p < 0.01), respectively. Conclusions: The risk of DF in cancer and non-cancer patients increases with age. When compared to matched controls, only cancer patients ≥ 80 with advanced stage cancers were at decreased risk of DF. This finding is likely due to the higher competing risk of death in cancer patients (i.e., of those ≥ 80, 40.2% with cancer versus 4.0% without cancer die within one year). [Table: see text]


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaopei Zhu ◽  
Yuhang Zhu ◽  
Juan Li ◽  
Weijing Meng ◽  
Xiaoxuan Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundCompeting risk events are prone to cause bias in the estimation of all-cause mortality. In order to eliminate the impact of competing events on survival analysis, we constructed a competing risk model. Besides, we attempted to build nomograms to predict gastric cancer-specific mortality (GCSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM).MethodsThe competing risk model was constructed to evaluate all-cause mortality, GCSM and OCM, by using the gastric cancer data from 2004 to 2013 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) dataset. Nomograms were used to predict the risk of individual dying from gastric cancer and other causes based on competing risk model.ResultsA total of 15299 cases were screened out. The 1-year, 5-year, and 8-year survival probabilities were 48.9 %, 22.1 %, and 16.4 % for all-cause mortality, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that sex, race, marital status, age at diagnosis, malignant, tumor diameter and TNM staging were all significant prognostic factors of gastric cancer. The GCSM and OCM models showed the risk of death treated by radiotherapy decreased from 0.689 to 0.494 after considering competing risk events. Furthermore, the nomograms showed good accuracy for GCSM prediction of the 1-,5-,8-year, the AUC values of the nomograms were 0.801 [95% CI, 0.793–0.808], 0.820 [95% CI, 0.810–0.829] and 0.823 [95% CI, 0.808–0.844]. The AUC values of the nomograms for predicting 1-, 5-, and 8-year OCM were 0.784 [95% CI, 0.778–0.792], 0.755 [95% CI, 0.748–0.765] and 0.747 [95% CI, 0.739–0.759].ConclusionsOverall, the prognosis of patients with Gastric cancer is poor. The competing risk model could accurately evaluate the probability of dying from gastric cancer and other causes. Nomograms showed relatively good performance and could be considered as convenient individualized predictive tools for predicting GCSM and OCM.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1680
Author(s):  
Urban Berg ◽  
Annette W-Dahl ◽  
Anna Nilsdotter ◽  
Emma Nauclér ◽  
Martin Sundberg ◽  
...  

Purpose: We aimed to study the influence of fast-track care programs in total hip and total knee replacements (THR and TKR) at Swedish hospitals on the risk of revision and mortality within 2 years after the operation. Methods: Data were collected from the Swedish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registers (SHAR and SKAR), including 67,913 THR and 59,268 TKR operations from 2011 to 2015 on patients with osteoarthritis. Operations from 2011 to 2015 Revision and mortality in the fast-track group were compared with non-fast-track using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis with adjustments. Results: The hazard ratio (HR) for revision within 2 years after THR with fast-track was 1.19 (CI: 1.03–1.39), indicating increased risk, whereas no increased risk was found in TKR (HR 0.91; CI: 0.79–1.06). The risk of death within 2 years was estimated with a HR of 0.85 (CI: 0.74–0.97) for TKR and 0.96 (CI: 0.85–1.09) for THR in fast-track hospitals compared to non-fast-track. Conclusions: Fast-track programs at Swedish hospitals were associated with an increased risk of revision in THR but not in TKR, while we found the mortality to be lower (TKR) or similar (THR) as compared to non-fast track.


Gerontology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Lee Butcher ◽  
Jose Antonio Carnicero ◽  
Karine Pérès ◽  
Marco Colpo ◽  
David Gomez Cabrero ◽  
...  

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> The evidence that blood levels of the soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) predict mortality in people with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is inconsistent. To clarify this matter, we investigated if frailty status influences this association. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> We analysed data of 1,016 individuals (median age, 75 years) from 3 population-based European cohorts, enrolled in the FRAILOMIC project. Participants were stratified by history of CVD and frailty status. Mortality was recorded during 8 years of follow-up. <b><i>Results:</i></b> In adjusted Cox regression models, baseline serum sRAGE was positively associated with an increased risk of mortality in participants with CVD (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.09–2.49, <i>p</i> = 0.019) but not in non-CVD. Within the CVD group, the risk of death was markedly enhanced in the frail subgroup (CVD-F, HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.18–3.29, <i>p</i> = 0.009), compared to the non-frail subgroup (CVD-NF, HR 1.50, 95% CI 0.71–3.15, <i>p</i> = 0.287). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the median survival time of CVD-F with high sRAGE (&#x3e;1,554 pg/mL) was 2.9 years shorter than that of CVD-F with low sRAGE, whereas no survival difference was seen for CVD-NF. Area under the ROC curve analysis demonstrated that for CVD-F, addition of sRAGE to the prediction model increased its prognostic value. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Frailty status influences the relationship between sRAGE and mortality in older adults with CVD. sRAGE could be used as a prognostic marker of mortality for these individuals, particularly if they are also frail.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document