scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 New Cases in Top 10 Infected African Countries 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alemayehu Siffir Argawu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Best Fit

Abstract Background: COVID-19 total cases have reached 1,083,071 (83.5%) in the top 10 infected African countries (South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Algeria, Ghana, Kenya, Cameroon, and Côte d’Ivoire) from Feb 14 to Sep 6, 2020. Then, this study aimed to model and forecast of COVID-19 new cases in these top 10 infected African countries.Methods: In this study, the COVID 19 new cases data have been modeled and forecast using curve estimation regression and time series models for these top 10 infected African countries from Feb 14 to Sep 6, 2020. Results: From July to August, the prevalence of COVID-19 cumulative cases was declined in South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Cameron, Nigeria, and Algeria by 31%, 26%, 22%, 20%, 14%, 12%, and 4%, respectively. But, it was highly raised in Ethiopia and Morocco by 41%, and 38% in this period, respectively. In Kenya, it was raised only by 1%. In this study, the cubic regression models for the ln(COVID-19 new cases) data were relatively the best fit for Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. And, the quadratic regression models for the data were the best fit for Cameroon, Cote dʹIvoire, and Ghana. The Algeria data was followed by the logarithmic regression model. In the time series analysis, the Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa COVID-19 new cases data have fitted the ARIMA (0,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,0), and ARIMA (0,1,14) models, respectively. The Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria data have fitted the simple exponential smoothing models. Ethiopia, Kenya, and Morocco data have followed the Damped trend, Holt, and Brown exponential smoothing models, respectively. In the analysis, the trends of COVID-19 new cases will be declined for Algeria and Ethiopia, and the trends will be constant for Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. But, it will be raised slightly for Egypt and Kenya, and significantly for Morocco and South Africa from September 7 to October 6, 2020.Conclusion: This study was conducted with the current measures; the forecasts and trends obtained may differ from the number of cases that occur in the future. Thus, the study finding should be useful in preparedness planning against the further spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in African countries. And, the researcher recommended that as many countries continue to relax restrictions on movement and mass gatherings, and more are opening their air spaces’, and the countries’ other public and private sectors are reopening. So, strong appropriate public health and social measures must be instituted on the grounds again.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 New Cases in the Top 10 Infected African Countries Using Regression and Time Series Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alemayehu Argawu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Study Finding ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Preparedness Planning ◽  
Best Fit

Background: COVID-19 total cases have reached 1,083,071 (83.5%) in the top 10 infected African countries (South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Algeria, Ghana, Kenya, Cameroon, and Cote-dIvoire) from Feb 14 to Sep 6, 2020. Then, this study aimed to model and forecast of COVID-19 new cases in these top 10 infected African countries. Methods: In this study, the COVID 19 new cases data have been modeled and forecasted using curve estimation regression and time series models for these top 10 infected African countries from Feb 14 to Sep 6, 2020. Results: From July to August, the prevalence of COVID-19 cumulative cases was declined in South Africa, Cote dʹIvoire, Egypt, Ghana, Cameron, Nigeria, and Algeria by 31%, 26%, 22%, 20%, 14%, 12%, and 4%, respectively. But, it was highly raised in Ethiopia and Morocco by 41%, and 38% in this period, respectively. In Kenya, it was raised only by 1%. In this study, the cubic regression models for the ln(COVID-19 new cases) data were relatively the best fit for Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. And, the quadratic regression models for the data were the best fit for Cameroon, Cote-dIvoire and Ghana. The Algeria data was followed the logarithmic regression model. In the time series analysis, the Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa COVID-19 new cases data have fitted the ARIMA (0,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,0), and ARIMA (0,1,14) models, respectively. The Cameroon, Cote-dIvoire, Ghana, and Nigeria data have fitted the simple exponential smoothing models. The Ethiopia, Kenya, and Morocco data have followed the Damped trend, Holt, and Brown exponential smoothing models, respectively. In the analysis, the trends of COVID-19 new cases will be declined for Algeria and Ethiopia, and the trends will be constantan for Cameroon, Cote-dIvoire, Ghana and Nigeria. But, it will be raised slightly for Egypt and Kenya, and significantly for Morocco and South Africa from September 7 to October 6, 2020. Conclusion: This study was conducted with the current measures; the forecasts and trends obtained may differ from the number of cases that occur in the future. Thus, the study finding should be useful in preparedness planning against further spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in African countries. And, the researcher recommended that as many countries continue to relax restrictions on movement and mass gatherings, and more are opening their airspaces, and the countries other public and private sectors are reopening. So, strong appropriate public health and social measures must be instituted on the grounds again.

Political Stability in West African States: Problems and Solutions. (Case Studies of Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal)

2018 ◽  
pp. 75-88
Author(s):  
Lyubov Sadovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
West African ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Côte D'ivoire

The article presents a new view on the problems of political stability in West African countries. For the first time was carried out a comparative analysis of the sustainability of the political systems of the two Francophone fastest growing countries in West Africa, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal. The author analyzes the factors negatively influencing political stability social order, and those that reduce conflict potencial in these States. Internal and external threats to the political systems of Senegal and Сôte d’Ivoire are examined. The response of both countries to internal and external challenges is shown. The study proves that while external threats indanger Senegal’s political stability, such as the penetration of religious extremism, the crisis in Casamance, maritime piracy, drug traffic, for Côte d’Ivoire, on the contrary, main risks are internal: electoral, socio-political crises, the split of elites, arms smuggling, banditry. The study demonstrates that the level of social governance in Senegal is higher than in other West African countries, including Сôte d’Ivoire, due to the dualism of the political system: the coexistence of Western-style political institutions with local faiths (tariqas), as well as policy pursued by President M. Sall. aimed at achieving mutual compromise that ensure the peaceful settlement of conflicts and contradictions. The author concludes that a new approach to the development of a security strategy is required.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of the Stability of Money Demand between Côte d’Ivoire And Ghana: An Application of ARDL Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Yao Kouadio Ange-Patrick ◽  
Drama Bédi Guy Hervé
Keyword(s):  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Demand Function ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Money Demand Function ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Stability

This paper empirically examined the broad money demand function and its stability in two West African countries namely Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana covering the period of 1980 to 2015 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing procedure. The empirical results confirm the stability of the money demand function and support the choice of M2 as a viable instrument for policy implementation in both countries cited above. The study also demonstrates that a long-run relationship exists between money aggregate (M2) and its determinants during the study period. In fact, the real income tends to be the most significant factor explaining the demand for broad money in both countries. In addition, the overall short run estimation of our model is statistically significant for Cote d’Ivoire and insignificant for Ghana at the conventional level. This means that money demand is stable for Cote d’Ivoire in short run and unstable for Ghana in the same period. It is recommended that monetary policy authorities should continue to implement policies that will reinforce macroeconomic stability and facilitate economic growth.

Can married or cohabiting women negotiate protective sex? Findings from Demographic and Health Surveys of two West African countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (6) ◽  
pp. 785-808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bamikale Feyisetan ◽  
Kola A. Oyediran
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Condom Use ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Côte D'ivoire

AbstractCan married or cohabitating women in patriarchal societies, who are often disproportionately affected by STI/HIV infections, negotiate protective sex when perceived necessary by refusing sex or asking for condom use during sex? Protective sex negotiation was examined through measures of power relations related to whether or not a woman has a say in sexual activities within marriage. The study hypothesis was that women who are more able to refuse sex or ask for condom use before sexual intercourse will be more able to discuss and reach agreement with their spouses on protective sex practices when needed. The study used data from DHS surveys conducted in Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to predict women’s ability to negotiate protective sex in Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria. The findings show that moderately high percentages of women in both countries reported the ability to negotiate protective sex, with a higher percentage reporting the ability to refuse sex compared with the ability to ask partners to use a condom. The logistic regression results showed that, in the two countries, women’s ability to refuse sex or ask their partners to use a condom, varied by gender- and power-mediating factors, women’s characteristics and behavioural factors. The study draws attention to the need to intensify efforts to promote more-egalitarian relationships between partners through culturally appropriate interventions.

Part 3 The Post 9/11-Era (2001–), 58 The Intervention in Côte d’Ivoire—2011

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tladi Dire
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Africa ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
The United States ◽  
Responsibility To Protect ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Election Violence

This chapter examines the intervention in Côte d’Ivoire by French and UN Forces following the disputed elections in Côte d’Ivoire. It begins by setting out the facts that led to the 2011 post-election violence and the sets out the facts surrounding the intervention by French and UN Forces. It then sets out the positions of the main protagonists (mainly France, ECOWAS, the United States and the UN Secretariat) and the positions of other member States of the United Nations (in particular Russia, Brazil and South Africa). The chapter then assesses the intervention, in particular by the French forces, against the content of the authorising resolution (UNSC Res 1975). It also assesses whether the responsibility to protect doctrine could provide authority for the intervention.

Observations on the biology of Afro–tropical Hesperiidae (Lepidoptera) principally from Kenya. Part 1. Introduction and Coeliadinae

Zootaxa ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 2547 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
MATTHEW J. W. COCK
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Republic Of Guinea ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
New Type

Partial life histories for eight Afro–tropical Coeliadinae are described and illustrated: Pyrrhochalcia iphis (Drury) (Côte d’Ivoire), Pyrrhiades lucagus (Cramer) (Ghana), P. anchises anchises (Gerstaecker) (Kenya), Coeliades chalybe chalybe (Westwood) (Côte d’Ivoire), C. forestan forestan (Stoll) (Kenya), C. pisistratus (Fabricius) (Kenya), C. sejuncta (Mabille & Vuillot) (Kenya), C. kenya Evans stat. rev. (Kenya). Descriptions of a further six species or subspecies are provided from the literature: P. anchises jucunda (Butler) (Oman), P. aeschylus (Plötz) (Republic of Guinea), P. pansa (Hewitson) (Réunion), C. bixana Evans (Democratic Republic of the Congo), C. libeon (Druce) (Democratic Republic of the Congo), C. keithloa (Wallengren) (South Africa), C. lorenzo Evans stat. rev. (South Africa). Unpublished photographs provided by T.C.E. Congdon illustrate early stages of C. sp. probably fervida (Butler) and C. rama Evans (Madagascar). Notes based on museum material are presented for C. ramanatek (Boisduval). Generalisations are made for the subfamily in Africa and the implications for generic groupings in the subfamily are considered. All except C. libeon are known4 · Zootaxa 2547 © 2010 Magnolia Pressto feed on at least one species of Malpighiaceae, while C. libeon feeds on at species of at least two other families of Malpigiales. A new type of leaf shelter, the four–cut shelter, is introduced, characteristic of African Coeliadinae.

Phylogenetic analysis of rubella viruses found in Morocco, Uganda, Cote d’Ivoire and South Africa from 2001 to 2007

2008 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayat Caidi ◽  
Emily S. Abernathy ◽  
Aziz Benjouad ◽  
Sheilagh Smit ◽  
Josephine Bwogi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Phylogenetic Analysis ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Côte D'ivoire

scholarly journals Acute Coronary Syndromes in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A 10‐Year Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hermann Yao ◽  
Arnaud Ekou ◽  
Thierry Niamkey ◽  
Sandra Hounhoui Gan ◽  
Isabelle Kouamé ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Acute Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Cote D'ivoire ◽  
Côte D’Ivoire ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Cote D’Ivoire ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Côte D'ivoire ◽  
Sub Saharan

Background Data in the literature on acute coronary syndrome in sub‐Saharan Africa are scarce. Methods and Results We conducted a systematic review of the MEDLINE (PubMed) database of observational studies of acute coronary syndrome in sub‐Saharan Africa from January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2020. Acute coronary syndrome was defined according to current definitions. Abstracts and then the full texts of the selected articles were independently screened by 2 blinded investigators. This systematic review was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses standards. We identified 784 articles with our research strategy, and 27 were taken into account for the final analysis. Ten studies report a prevalence of acute coronary syndrome among patients admitted for cardiovascular disease ranging from 0.21% to 22.3%. Patients were younger, with a minimum age of 52 years in South Africa and Djibouti. There was a significant male predominance. Hypertension was the main risk factor (50%–55% of cases). Time to admission tended to be long, with the longest times in Tanzania (6.6 days) and Burkina Faso (4.3 days). Very few patients were admitted by medicalized transport, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire (only 34% including 8% by emergency medical service). The clinical presentation is dominated by ST–elevation sudden cardiac arrest. Percutaneous coronary intervention is not widely available but was performed in South Africa, Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire, Sudan, and Mauritania. Fibrinolysis was the most accessible means of revascularization, with streptokinase as the molecule of choice. Hospital mortality was highly variable between 1.2% and 24.5% depending on the study populations and the revascularization procedures performed. Mortality at follow‐up varied from 7.8% to 43.3%. Some studies identified factors predictive of mortality. Conclusions The significant disparities in our results underscore the need for a multicenter registry for acute coronary syndrome in sub‐Saharan Africa in order to develop consensus‐based strategies, propose and evaluate tailored interventions, and identify prognostic factors.

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