scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF THE AQUAPONICS (FISH FARMING AND HYDROPONICS) SYSTEM USING THE MONTE CARLO METHOD

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (04) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Diana Navarro ◽  
Goro Kodama ◽  
Maísa Joaquim dos Santos ◽  
Álvaro Nogueira de Souza ◽  
Guilherme Crispim Hundley
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Fish Farming ◽  
Plant Production ◽  
Financial Viability ◽  
Production Volume ◽  
Production Scale ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Cost

This study aims to evaluate a particular property in Brasília that uses the aquaponics system on a small production scale. The Monte Carlo method was used to estimate its financial feasibility and the probability of the production volume and, consequently, evaluate the risk of this undertaking. The data analyzed included fixed and variable costs, revenues and financial viability indicators, which are net present value (NPV), periodic economic benefit (PEB) and internal rate of return (IRR). It was identified in this research that the cost with the largest participation was the land acquisition, amounting to more than 60%. According to the survey, the venture showed a 56.69% probability to generate a NPV, PEB and IRR rate, respectively, of R$ 117,784.26, R$ 16,003.11 and 37%. The probability of occurrence of fish volume and plant production were, respectively, 1179.44 kg and 731.26 kg with 74.43% and 76.16%, presenting a probability greater than 50%, which is considered as more reliable than traditional analysis. Therefore, we can conclude that it is economically viable according to the NPV parameters, which was greater than zero, and the IRR, that was higher than the minimum rate of attractiveness.

scholarly journals Modelling and numerical assessment of a maintenance strategy with stock through piecewise deterministic Markov processes and quasi Monte Carlo methods

2017 ◽  
Vol 231 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-445
Author(s):  
Jeanne Demgne ◽  
Sophie Mercier ◽  
William Lair ◽  
Jérôme Lonchampt
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Markov Processes ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Spare Parts ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Quasi Monte Carlo ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes ◽  
The Right

To ensure a power generation level, the French national electricity supply (EDF) has to manage its producing assets by putting in place adapted preventive maintenance strategies. In this article, a fleet of identical components is considered, which are spread out all around France (one per power plant site). The components are assumed to have stochastically independent lifetimes, but they are made functionally dependent through the sharing of a common stock of spare parts. When available, these spare parts are used for both corrective and preventive replacements, with priority to corrective replacements. When the stock is empty, replacements are delayed until the arrival of new spare parts. These spare parts are expensive, and their manufacturing time is long, which makes it necessary to rigorously define their ordering process. The point of the article is to provide the decision maker with the tools to take the right decision (make or not the overhaul). To do that, two indicators are proposed, which are based on an economic variable called the net present value. The net present value stands for the difference between the cumulated discounted cash-flows of the purely corrective policy and the preventive one which including the overhaul. Piecewise deterministic Markov processes are first considered for the joint modelling of the stochastic evolution of the components, stock and ordering process with and without overhaul. The indicators are next expressed with respect to these piecewise deterministic Markov processes, which have to be numerically assessed. Instead of using the most classical Monte Carlo simulations, we here suggest alternate methods based on quasi Monte Carlo simulations, which replace the random uniform numbers of the Monte Carlo method by deterministic sequences called low-discrepancy sequences. The obtained results show a real gain of the quasi Monte Carlo methods in comparison with the Monte Carlo method. The developed tools can hence help the decision maker to take the right decision.

scholarly journals Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

CERNE ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 393-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes ◽  
Luiz Moreira Coelho Júnior ◽  
Antônio Donizette de Oliveira ◽  
José Márcio de Mello ◽  
José Luiz Pereira de Rezende ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Charcoal Production ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Return On Capital

Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL). Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand), the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration) by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

scholarly journals Analysis of economic-financial viability, by the monte carlo method, in service provider of non-destructible tests: case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1454
Author(s):  
Vanessa Miguel Augusto Souza ◽  
Nilson Brandalise
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
A Company ◽  
Non Destructive

This work aims to present the economic-financial feasibility, through the application of the Monte Carlo Method, to assist managers in the decision making regarding the investment of a service contract of a company specialized in Non-Destructive Tests, with the tests of Penetrant Liquid and Ultrasound, to which the company that takes the service establishes the requirements previously. The method was apply, in 5000 iterations, from the established parameters, for the initial investment and demand of the test diaries, which provided data regarding the average for the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Profitability Index (PI), as well as the possible standard deviations, established by the coefficient of variation. Finally, after analyzing the data, it was check that the Method is useful to assist in the making of investment decisions, being feasible the adherence of the contract studied, through the analyzed data and established criteria.

scholarly journals OPTIMIZATION AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MULTIPRODUCTS OBTAINED FROM WOOD OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS UNDER DIFFERENT PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY CLASSES AND ROTATION AGES

FLORESTA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 293
Author(s):  
Laíssa De Araújo Viana ◽  
Renato Vinícius Oliveira Castro ◽  
Álvaro Nogueira de Souza ◽  
Carlos Pedro Boechat Soares ◽  
Maísa Santos Joaquim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Eucalyptus Grandis ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Rotation Age

The present study aimed to analyze the yield and economic viability of the destination, for lumber and energy, of the wood from non-thinned stands of the hybrid Eucalyptus urophylla x Eucalyptus grandis under different productive capacity class and whose production was projected by individual tree growth model to different ages. The simulation of the growth of individual trees was performed by applying the height and diameter growth, and mortality sub-models for three productive capacity classes: high, medium and low. The Kozak model was adjusted to study the stem taper and, in addition, used to optimize patterns for sawing logs and to produce lumber. The economic viability of the projects was evaluated by Net Present Value, Equivalent Periodic Benefit and risk analysis using the Monte Carlo method. It was observed that in areas with less productive capacity the volume of wood destined for energy was greater than 80% and, in areas with greater productive capacity the volume of lumber was greater than 26%. Economic indicators showed that the lumber production was viable at any of the studied rotation age. The risk analysis using the Monte Carlo method did not indicate the possibility of the project being unfeasible under the conditions analyzed. The quantity of different types of products obtained and the wood yield depends on the productive capacity class and age of the stand. The destination of the wood for multiproducts is the most viable option, regardless of the productive capacity class.

UGR CALCULATION BASED ON THE LUMINANCE SPATIAL-ANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Viktor Zheltov ◽  
Viktor Chembaev
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Visual Task ◽  
New Method ◽  
Lighting System ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
System A ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article has considered the calculation of the unified glare rating (UGR) based on the luminance spatial-angular distribution (LSAD). The method of local estimations of the Monte Carlo method is proposed as a method for modeling LSAD. On the basis of LSAD, it becomes possible to evaluate the quality of lighting by many criteria, including the generally accepted UGR. UGR allows preliminary assessment of the level of comfort for performing a visual task in a lighting system. A new method of "pixel-by-pixel" calculation of UGR based on LSAD is proposed.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

Application of the Monte Carlo Method for the Prediction of Behavior of Peptides

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 1151-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alla P. Toropova ◽  
Andrey A. Toropov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Monte Carlo Technique ◽  
Quantitative Structure ◽  
Structure Property ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Modern Natural

Prediction of physicochemical and biochemical behavior of peptides is an important and attractive task of the modern natural sciences, since these substances have a key role in life processes. The Monte Carlo technique is a possible way to solve the above task. The Monte Carlo method is a tool with different applications relative to the study of peptides: (i) analysis of the 3D configurations (conformers); (ii) establishment of quantitative structure – property / activity relationships (QSPRs/QSARs); and (iii) development of databases on the biopolymers. Current ideas related to application of the Monte Carlo technique for studying peptides and biopolymers have been discussed in this review.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document