Smart Estimation Ver-H.1.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigit Haryadi

We cannot be sure exactly what will happen, we can only estimate by using a particular method, where each method must have the formula to create a regression equation and a formula to calculate the confidence level of the estimated value. This paper conveys a method of estimating the future values, in which the formula for creating a regression equation is based on the assumption that the future value will depend on the difference of the past values divided by a weight factor which corresponding to the time span to the present, and the formula for calculating the level of confidence is to use "the Haryadi Index". The advantage of this method is to remain accurate regardless of the sample size and may ignore the past value that is considered irrelevant.

2020 ◽  
pp. 217-248
Author(s):  
Roma Bončkutė

SOURCES OF SIMONAS DAUKANTAS’S BUDĄ SENOWĘS-LËTUWIÛ KALNIENÛ ĨR ƵÁMAJTIÛ (1845) The article investigates Simonas Daukantas’s (1793–1864) BUDĄ Senowęs-Lëtuwiû Kalnienû ĩr Ƶámajtiû (The Character of the Lithuanian Highlanders and Samogitians of the Old Times, 1845; hereafter Bd) with regards to genre, origin of the title, and the dominant German sources of the work. It claims that Daukantas conceived Bd because he understood that the future of Lithuania is closely related to its past. A single, united version of Lithuanian history, accepted by the whole nation, was necessary for the development of Lithuanian national identity and collective feeling. The history, which up until then had not been published in Lithuanian, could have helped to create the contours of a new society by presenting the paradigmatic events of the past. The collective awareness of the difference between the present and the past (and future) should have given the Lithuanian community an incentive to move forward. Daukantas wrote Bd quickly, between 1842 and May 28, 1844, because he drew on his previous work ISTORYJE ƵEMAYTYSZKA (History of the Lithuanian Lowlands, ~1831–1834; IƵ). Based on the findings of previous researchers of Daukantas’s works, after studying the dominant sources of Bd and examining their nature, this article comes to the conclusion that the work has features of both cultural history and regional historiography. The graphically highlighted form of the word “BUDĄ” used in the work’s title should be considered the author’s code. Daukantas, influenced by the newest culturological research and comparative linguistics of the 18th–19th centuries, propagated that Lithuanians originate from India and, like many others, found evidence of this in the Lithuanian language and culture. He considered the Budini (Greek Βουδίνοι), who are associated with the followers of Buddha, to be Lithuanian ancestors. He found proof of this claim in the language and chose the word “būdas” (character), which evokes aforementioned associations, to express the idea of the work.


2001 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Elsness

This article deals with the opposition between the present perfect and the preterite in English and Norwegian from a contrastive point of view. The use of these verb forms is very similar in the two languages, and markedly different from that in closely related languages such as German and French, where the present perfect is used much more widely. In English and Norwegian the preterite is the norm if the reference is identified as being to past time which is clearly separate from the deictic zero-point, for instance through adverbial specification, while the present perfect is used of situations extending from the past all the way up to the deictic zero-point, and of situations located within such a time span. In many intermediate cases, where the reference is to a loosely defined past time, either verb form may be used in both languages, although several writers have claimed that the present perfect is more common in Norwegian than in English in such cases. The difference between the two languages is more distinct if the reference is to what can be seen as unique past time, in which case the present perfect is usually blocked in English but very common in Norwegian. Also, the so-called inferential perfect in Norwegian is not matched by any similar perfect use in English. These claims are amply confirmed by an investigation of the English–Norwegian Parallel Corpus (ENPC), where the present perfect is more frequent in the Norwegian as compared with the English sections, at the expense of the preterite. Moreover, there is found to be a marked difference between the original and the translated texts of the ENPC: the ratio between the present perfect and the preterite is generally higher in Norwegian than in English but not quite so high in Norwegian texts translated from English as in Norwegian original texts, and somewhat higher in English texts translated from Norwegian than in English original texts. This difference is ascribed to interference from the source language in the translated texts.


1982 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorraine Harner

ABSTRACTSeventy-five children, 3, 4, and 5 years old, were interviewed about: (a) toys they had played with just a few minutes earlier, (b) toys they had played with on the preceding day, (c) toys they would play with in a few minutes, and (d) toys reserved for use on the following day. Verb forms indicating past and future time were used as well as the adverbials before and after. The past verb form was understood equally well in reference to the immediate past and the more remote past. However, the future verb form was better understood in reference to the immediate future than in reference to the remote future (the following day). The difference is discussed in terms of the intersection of time and mood in future verb forms. Immediacy of action and certainty of occurrence are suggested as early meaning components of future verb forms.


Quantum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 520
Author(s):  
Andrea Di Biagio ◽  
Pietro Donà ◽  
Carlo Rovelli

The operational formulations of quantum theory are drastically time oriented. However, to the best of our knowledge, microscopic physics is time-symmetric. We address this tension by showing that the asymmetry of the operational formulations does not reflect a fundamental time-orientation of physics. Instead, it stems from built-in assumptions about the users of the theory. In particular, these formalisms are designed for predicting the future based on information about the past, and the main mathematical objects contain implicit assumption about the past, but not about the future. The main asymmetry in quantum theory is the difference between knowns and unknowns.


Author(s):  
Ella Ophir

Woolf’s diary served manifold purposes; this paper addresses Woolf’s intention, explicit and sustained, to create a detailed record of the past for the future. As a diarist Woolf becomes at once archivist, historiographer, and her own posterity—both actual, in her periodic rereading of her record, and projected, in the form of “Old Virginia,” the future self she imagines sitting down to write her memoirs. Once treated largely as a mass to be mined, Woolf’s diary has now been situated as a “work” among her others. I emphasize, rather, the difference of the diary as a process and practice that became an ongoing crucible for Woolf’s thinking about the past and its representations. In creating a record of her days, Woolf becomes intimately familiar with the ideological, idiosyncratic, and aleatory nature of the historical record and, further, with the unpredictable value of its contents, as their significance shifts under the continually altering lights of time. In the periodical structure of “A Sketch of the Past,” and in Woolf’s gently ironized regard for posterity, we see the diary’s lesson on the perpetual mobility of perspective on the past.


2020 ◽  
pp. 209-222
Author(s):  
T. M. Tytarenko

The personal landscape transformations are defined as the territory of a person 's life, which has special dynamics, structural and functional characteristics, meaningful filling. In addition to specifying the landscape concept, the task was to determine the types of landscapes of combatants after returning from the war. The sample consisted of 91 combatants (higher education cadets and volunteers). We used the written narrative method of the proposed scheme, a conversation, and a focused one-on-one interview. As a result, post-traumatic combatants 'narratives consisted of war-related injuries (41.9%); family treason (24.7%); losses suffered in peace time (23.5%); other difficult life situations (9.9%). The following criteria for determining the type of landscape have been developed: meaningfulness of the past; assessment of the present; a vision of the future; value dominant. There is considered the value-semantic configuration of the individual 's life as an integral indicator of the landscape. The following types of landscapes have been identified: a) existential (differs in the unwillingness to rethink the traumatic past; the inability to assess the present adequately; the inability to construct the future; the dominant for survival); b) family (distinguished by a good understanding of the past; adequate assessment of the present; detailed construction of the future; dominant of meaningful relationships); c) service (differs from family one primarily by the criterion of dominant value – to be useful to the state, to the fight against the aggressor, and to the army); d) self-realization (differs in the main value of self-development); e) pragmatic (distinguished by the major value of career advancement). The most common landscapes are existential and family landscapes (25.0% each); in second place is landscapes of service and self-realization (17.3% each); on the third – pragmatic (13.6%). The hypothesis according to which the direct participation of military personnel in hostilities can act as a trigger for changing the personal landscape is confirmed.


2018 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 01039
Author(s):  
Nofriady Handra ◽  
Hafni Hafni ◽  
Hendriwan Fahmi

The development of biomass has been an important issue for the past several decades and would remain to be attractive in the future due to its clean, renewable, and carbon–neutral properties. The use of Empty Fruit Bunch (EFB) has been the condition of fibre and conditions of EFB is still fresh. The fiber used has been cut to size between ± 0.5 mm to 5 mm. The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of difference press angle to the quality of briquette. Effect of the angle of the mold on the duration of combustion shows the difference in the time value that is not significant between the angles 65°, 55° and 45°. The rotation of the screw shaft slows down at an angle of 45° with a round of 84.5 rpm, while the rotation of the shaft has increased in rotation at 65° angle with rotation of 90.6 rpm. Differences in the cone angle affect the value of the burning time of the specimen and the rotation of the screw shaft so that it affects the engine performance.


2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 219-246

The author takes on two interrelated tasks. The first is to justify the philosophy of history as an intellectual enterprise for the modern era and one which is dedicated to finding a positive meaning in the changes that occur within humanity as it moves from the past toward the future. The viability of that enterprise has been called into question by the catastrophes of the twentieth century. The second task is to propose a new concept of historical temporality instead of the “processual” one that was discredited in the previous century. Simon maintains that we are now living in a period similar to the “saddle time” (from 1750 to 1850) described by Reinhart Koselleck. The difference between that period and the current one lies in the replacement of the “processual” temporality that was established in that earlier time by an “evental” temporality, whose structure this article is intended to explain. The future plays a key role in the structure of evental temporality. The future no longer denotes the perspective that maps out the direction of historical changes but is instead synonymous with changes as such — changes so radical that the continued existence of mankind within its former ecological, biological and physiological boundaries is at stake. The author illustrates these changes with references to bioengineering, artificial intelligence, anthropogenic climate change, etc. Expectations about these changes are utopian and dystopian at the same time and can feed one’s wildest hopes and fantasies as well as inspire the darkest fears and dreads. In any case, these changes themselves are in no way determined by the previous course of history. The future they point to undermines the continuity of human experience because it is completely independent of the past.


2013 ◽  
Vol 64 (7) ◽  
pp. 641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Sautier ◽  
Michel Duru ◽  
Roger Martin-Clouaire

Climate change research that aims to accelerate the adaptation process of agricultural production systems first requires understanding their climatic vulnerability, which is in part characterised by their exposure. This paper’s approach moves beyond traditional metrics of climate variables and proposes specific indicators for grassland-based livestock systems. The indicators focus on the variation in seasonal boundaries and seasonal and yearly herbage productivity in response to weather conditions. The paper shows how statistical interpretations of these indicators over several sites and climatic years (past and future) enable the characterisation of classes of climatic years and seasons as well as their frequencies of occurrence and their variation from the past to the expected future. The frequency of occurrence and succession of seasonal extremes is also examined by analysing the difference between observed or predicted seasonal productivity and past mean productivity. The data analysis and corresponding statistical graphics used in our approach can help farmers, advisers, and scientists envision site-specific impacts of climate change on herbage production patterns. An illustrative analysis is performed on three sites in south-western France using a series of climatic years covering two 30-year periods in the past and the future. We found that the herbage production of several clusters of climatic years can be identified as ‘normal’ (i.e. frequent) and that the most frequent clusters in the past become less common in the future, although some clusters remain common. In addition, the year-to-year variability and the contrast between spring and summer–fall (autumn) herbage production are expected to increase.


2021 ◽  
pp. 014616722110368
Author(s):  
Brian W. Haas ◽  
Kazufumi Omura

The End of History Illusion (EoHI) is the tendency to report that a greater amount of change occurred in the past than is predicted to occur in the future. We investigated if cultural differences exist in the magnitude of the EoHI for self-reported life satisfaction and personality traits. We found an effect of culture such that the difference between reported past and predicted future change was greater for U.S. Americans than Japanese, and that individual differences in two aspects of the self (self-esteem and self-concept clarity) mediated the link between culture and the magnitude of the EoHI. We also found a robust cultural difference in perceptions of past change; U.S. Americans tended to think about the past more negatively than their Japanese counterparts. These findings yield new insight onto the link between cultural context and the way people remember the past and imagine the future.


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