The Impact of Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks on Bank Credit: Evidence from Emerging Economies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ender Demir ◽  
Gamze Ozturk Danisman
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

scholarly journals Heterogeneity of the Impact of Geopolitical Events on Energy Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanqiong Liu ◽  
Liang Yu ◽  
Cunyi Yang ◽  
Zhenghui Li
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Energy Trade ◽  
The Face ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

In the context of intensifying global geopolitical disputes and trade frictions, the relationship between geopolitics and energy trade has attracted extensive attention from scholars. The complexity of geopolitical risks mainly comes from the diversity of geopolitical events, which directly leads to the different responses of energy trade in the face of geopolitical risks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the heterogeneity of the impact of geopolitical events on energy trade based on the difference of event types. This paper uses Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to simulate a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the monthly data and the Geopolitical Risk index (GPR index) of 17 emerging economies from 2000 to 2020, the empirical analysis can be concluded as follows: Wars and conflicts events lead to the increase of energy trade volume; terrorist attacks have no significant impact on energy trade; international tension can cause the decline in energy trade. Additional analysis shows that the impact of geopolitical events on energy trade in emerging economies is concentrated on the demand side, and the demand is severely inelastic.

Consideration of Geopolitical Challenges within the Analysis of Geoenvironmental Risks for Oil and Gas Development of the Russian Arctic

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 50-59
Author(s):  
O. P. Trubitsina ◽  
V. N. Bashkin
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Optimal Operation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stage Model ◽  
Oil And Gas Development ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

The article is devoted to the consideration of geopolitical challenges for the analysis of geoenvironmental risks (GERs) in the hydrocarbon development of the Arctic territory. Geopolitical risks (GPRs), like GERs, can be transformed into opposite external environment factors of oil and gas industry facilities in the form of additional opportunities or threats, which the authors identify in detail for each type of risk. This is necessary for further development of methodological base of expert methods for GER management in the context of the implementational proposed two-stage model of the GER analysis taking to account GPR for the improvement of effectiveness making decisions to ensure optimal operation of the facility oil and gas industry and minimize the impact on the environment in the geopolitical conditions of the Arctic.The authors declare no conflict of interest

scholarly journals The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Tourism Supply in Developing Economies: The Moderating Role of Social Globalization

2021 ◽  
pp. 004728752110047
Author(s):  
Giray Gozgor ◽  
Marco Chi Keung Lau ◽  
Yan Zeng ◽  
Cheng Yan ◽  
Zhibin Lin
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Sustainable Tourism ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Media ◽  
Factor Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

Capital investment is vital for sustainable tourism growth, particularly in times of geopolitical turmoil. This study examines how tourism investment was influenced by geopolitical risks considering social globalization as a moderating factor. Data were collected from 18 developing economies between 1995 and 2018. The results from the fixed effects and the least squares dummy variable–corrected methods show that the geopolitical risks negatively affect capital investment in tourism, with social globalization playing a moderating role in alleviating the adverse effect. The results were robust to different measures and analyses. The study advances our understanding of sustainable tourism growth amid geopolitical turmoil. Policymakers, especially those from developing economies, are suggested to be vigilant about the media atmosphere of geopolitics and enhancing social globalization as a countermeasure against politically turbulent times. The study also provides implications for alleviating the impact of the global pandemic on tourism investment.

scholarly journals Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5866
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khalid Anser ◽  
Qasim Raza Syed ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Andrew Adewale Alola ◽  
Munir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Since the turn of twenty first century, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) have escalated across the globe. These two factors have both economic and environmental impacts. However, there exists dearth of literature that expounds the impact of EPU and GPR on environmental degradation. This study, therefore, probes the impact of EPU and GPR on ecological footprint (proxy for environmental degradation) in selected emerging economies. Cross-sectional dependence test, slope heterogeneity test, Westerlund co-integration test, fully modified least ordinary least square estimator, dynamic OLS estimator, and augmented mean group estimator are employed to conduct the robust analyses. The findings reveal that EPU and non-renewable energy consumption escalate ecological footprint, whereas GPR and renewable energy plunge ecological footprint. In addition, findings from the causality test reveal both uni-directional and bi-directional causality between a few variables. Based on the findings, we deduce several policy implications to accomplish the sustainable development goals in emerging economies.

Macro-economic Factors Influencing Tourism Entrepreneurship: The Case of Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
pp. 097135572098143
Author(s):  
Aizhan Tleuberdinova ◽  
Zhanat Shayekina ◽  
Dinara Salauatova ◽  
Stephen Pratt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
National Income ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Impact

Tourism development contributes to economic development. In emerging economies like Kazakhstan, tourism development needs active entrepreneurship. As the country emerges from the post-Soviet era, there has been an increase in economic development and prosperity. Entrepreneurship in the tourism sector can drive economies forward through the creation of new tourism and hospitality businesses. The macroeconomic environment can influence entrepreneurial activity. We use an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on tourism entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan. Using data from 1996 to 2018, we find that there is a positive short-run relationship between wages in the tourism sector and entrepreneurship, suggesting that wage growth in the sector attracts entrepreneurs. In the long run, however, tourism sector wages have a negative relationship with entrepreneurship, suggesting that these higher wages represent a higher cost to entrepreneurship. There is also a strong positive relationship between national income and tourism entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan. Implications of macroeconomic policy changes for Kazakhstan and other emerging economies are discussed.

Assessing the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with a novel economic uncertainty index

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhan Mugaloglu ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat ◽  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Edanur Kılıç
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to measure economic uncertainty in Turkey by a novel economic uncertainty index (EUI) employing principal component analysis (PCA). We assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with our constructed uncertainty index.Design/methodology/approachIn order to obtain the EUI, this study employs a dimension reduction method of PCA using 14 macroeconomic indicators that spans from January 2011 to July 2020. The first principal component is picked as a proxy for the economic uncertainty in Turkey which explains 52% of total variation in entire sample. In the second part of our analysis, with our constructed EUI we conduct a structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) analysis simulating the Covid-19-induced uncertainty shock to the real economy.FindingsOur EUI sensitively detects important economic/political events in Turkey as well as Covid-19-induced uncertainty rising to extremely high levels during the outbreak. Our SVAR results imply a significant decline in economic activity and in the sub-indices as well. Namely, industrial production drops immediately by 8.2% and cumulative loss over 8 months will be 15% on average. The losses in the capital and intermediate goods are estimated to be 18 and 25% respectively. Forecast error variance decomposition results imply that uncertainty shocks preserve its explanatory power in the long run, and intermediate goods production is more vulnerable to uncertainty shocks than overall industrial production and capital goods production.Practical implicationsThe results indicate that monetary and fiscal policy should aim to decrease uncertainty during Covid-19. Moreover, since investment expenditures are affected severely during the outbreak, policymakers should impose investment subsidies.Originality/valueThis is the first study constructing a novel EUI which sensitively captures the critical economic/political events in Turkey. Moreover, we assess the impact of Covid-19-driven uncertainty on Turkish Economy with a SVAR model.

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