Tropical Cyclone Climatology in a Global-Warming Climate as Simulated in a 20 km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Frequency and Wind Intensity Analyses

Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity and structure are investigated using the outputs of a 14-km mesh climate simulation. A set of 30-yr simulations was performed under present-day and warmer climate conditions using a nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model with explicitly calculated convection. The model projected that the global frequency of TCs is reduced by 22.7%, the ratio of intense TCs is increased by 6.6%, and the precipitation rate within 100 km of the TC center increased by 11.8% under warmer climate conditions. These tendencies are consistent with previous studies using a hydrostatic global model with cumulus parameterization. The responses of vertical and horizontal structures to global warming are investigated for TCs with the same intensity categories. For TCs whose minimum sea level pressure (SLP) reaches less than 980 hPa, the model predicted that tangential wind increases in the outside region of the eyewall. Increases in the tangential wind are related to the elevation of the tropopause caused by global warming. The tropopause rise induces an upward extension of the eyewall, resulting in an increase in latent heating in the upper layers of the inclined eyewall. Thus, SLP is reduced underneath the warmed eyewall regions through hydrostatic adjustment. The altered distribution of SLP enhances tangential winds in the outward region of the eyewall cloud. Hence, this study shows that the horizontal scale of TCs defined by a radius of 12 m s−1 surface wind is projected to increase compared with the same intensity categories for SLP less than 980 hPa.

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The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00050.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (20) ◽

pp. 5353-5364 ◽

Cited By ~ 84

Author(s):

Isaac M. Held ◽

Ming Zhao

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Vertical Motion ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Intensity Increase ◽

Average Intensity ◽

Sea Surface Temperatures ◽

Global Atmospheric Model ◽

Relative Contribution ◽

Surface Temperatures

Abstract The effects on tropical cyclone statistics of doubling CO2, with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are compared to the effects of a 2-K increase in SST, with fixed CO2, using a 50-km resolution global atmospheric model. Confirming earlier results of Yoshimura and Sugi, a significant fraction of the reduction in globally averaged tropical storm frequency seen in simulations in which both SST and CO2 are increased can be thought of as the effect of the CO2 increase with fixed SSTs. Globally, the model produces a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency of about 10% due to doubling of CO2 and an additional 10% for a 2-K increase in SST, resulting in roughly a 20% reduction when both effects are present. The relative contribution of the CO2 effect to the total reduction is larger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. The average intensity of storms increases in the model with increasing SST, but intensity remains roughly unchanged, or decreases slightly, with the increase in CO2 alone. As a result, when considering the frequency of more intense cyclones, the intensity increase tends to compensate for the reduced total cyclone numbers for the SST increase in isolation, but not for the CO2 increase in isolation. Changes in genesis in these experiments roughly follow changes in mean vertical motion, reflecting changes in convective mass fluxes. Discussion of one possible perspective on how changes in the convective mass flux might alter genesis rates is provided.

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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7 Global warming, climate patterns and toxic cyanobacteria

Climate Change and Marine and Freshwater Toxins ◽

10.1515/9783110625738-007 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 209-252

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Toxic Cyanobacteria ◽

Climate Patterns

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A GCM investigation of global warming impacts relevant to tropical cyclone genesis

International Journal of Climatology ◽

10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199905)19:6<607::aid-joc383>3.0.co;2-m ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 19 (6) ◽

pp. 607-617 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Leonard M. Druyan ◽

Patrick Lonergan ◽

Timothy Eichler

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽

Cyclone Genesis

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Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part II: The Influence of a Strongly Warming Climate on Convective Environments

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-13-00426.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 27 (10) ◽

pp. 3848-3868 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

John T. Allen ◽

David J. Karoly ◽

Kevin J. Walsh

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Historical Period ◽

Severe Thunderstorm ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Eastern Australia

Abstract The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments in Australia was explored using two global climate models: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6), and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM). These models have previously been evaluated and found to be capable of reproducing a useful climatology for the twentieth-century period (1980–2000). Analyzing the changes between the historical period and high warming climate scenarios for the period 2079–99 has allowed estimation of the potential convective future for the continent. Based on these simulations, significant increases to the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments will likely occur for northern and eastern Australia in a warmed climate. This change is a response to increasing convective available potential energy from higher continental moisture, particularly in proximity to warm sea surface temperatures. Despite decreases to the frequency of environments with high vertical wind shear, it appears unlikely that this will offset increases to thermodynamic energy. The change is most pronounced during the peak of the convective season, increasing its length and the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments therein, particularly over the eastern parts of the continent. The implications of this potential increase are significant, with the overall frequency of potential severe thunderstorm days per year likely to rise over the major population centers of the east coast by 14% for Brisbane, 22% for Melbourne, and 30% for Sydney. The limitations of this approach are then discussed in the context of ways to increase the confidence of predictions of future severe convection.

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