scholarly journals Households’ credit demand: Main trends and characteristics for Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Lyudmyla Shkvarchuk ◽  
Rostyslav Slav’yuk
Keyword(s):  
Financial Behavior ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Household Demand ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Destabilizing Factors ◽  
Credit Demand

Household demand for credits is quite volatile, which requires constant evaluation of it changes. The purpose of the paper is to identify quantitative signals, the use of which increases the predictability of the credit market development. The study utilizes technical analysis methods for an econometric estimation of trends in household demand for credits in Ukraine for the 2002–2019 period. Based on the analysis of historical market lows, it was argued that with all the negative effects of destabilizing factors, the household demand for loans will not fall below the market support point of UAH 50 million. The financial behavior of Ukrainian households when choosing the type of loan is stable and does not change with fluctuations in GDP. Short-term loans are quite dynamic and largely depend on macroeconomic conditions, provoking market movements. If the relevant direction is supported by medium-term loans, the general market trend will correspond to the GDP trend. The demand for long-term loans is quite inertial, its change does not affect the overall market trend. The constant and variable elements of household demand for credit are highlighted.

scholarly journals Tarzan and chain: exploring the ICO jungle and evaluating design archetypes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina M. Bachmann ◽  
Benedict Drasch ◽  
Gilbert Fridgen ◽  
Michael Miksch ◽  
Ferdinand Regner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Peer To Peer ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Use Case ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Funding Mechanism ◽  
Research Gap

AbstractThe phenomenon of a blockchain use case called initial coin offering (ICO) is drawing increasing attention as a novel funding mechanism. ICO is a crowdfunding type that utilizes blockchain tokens to allow for truly peer-to-peer investments. Although more than $7bn has been raised globally via ICOs as at 2018, the concept and its implications are not yet entirely understood. The research lags behind in providing in-depth analyses of ICO designs and their long-term success. We address this research gap by developing an ICO taxonomy, applying a cluster analysis to identify prevailing ICO archetypes, and providing an outlook on the token value market performance for individual archetypes. We identify five ICO design archetypes and display their secondary market development from both a short-term and a long-term perspective. We contribute to an in-depth understanding of ICOs and their implications. Further, we offer practitioners tangible design and success indications for future ICOs.

scholarly journals Long-Term Data Traffic Forecasting for Network Dimensioning in LTE with Short Time Series

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
Carolina Gijón ◽  
Matías Toril ◽  
Salvador Luna-Ramírez ◽  
María Luisa Marí-Altozano ◽  
José María Ruiz-Avilés
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Data Traffic ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Traffic Forecasting ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Radio Planning

Network dimensioning is a critical task in current mobile networks, as any failure in this process leads to degraded user experience or unnecessary upgrades of network resources. For this purpose, radio planning tools often predict monthly busy-hour data traffic to detect capacity bottlenecks in advance. Supervised Learning (SL) arises as a promising solution to improve predictions obtained with legacy approaches. Previous works have shown that deep learning outperforms classical time series analysis when predicting data traffic in cellular networks in the short term (seconds/minutes) and medium term (hours/days) from long historical data series. However, long-term forecasting (several months horizon) performed in radio planning tools relies on short and noisy time series, thus requiring a separate analysis. In this work, we present the first study comparing SL and time series analysis approaches to predict monthly busy-hour data traffic on a cell basis in a live LTE network. To this end, an extensive dataset is collected, comprising data traffic per cell for a whole country during 30 months. The considered methods include Random Forest, different Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average and Additive Holt–Winters. Results show that SL models outperform time series approaches, while reducing data storage capacity requirements. More importantly, unlike in short-term and medium-term traffic forecasting, non-deep SL approaches are competitive with deep learning while being more computationally efficient.

Do researchers impact their study populations? Assessing the effect of field procedures in a long term population monitoring of sea kraits

2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 365-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Fauvel ◽  
François Brischoux ◽  
Marine Jeanne Briand ◽  
Xavier Bonnet
Keyword(s):  
Body Condition ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Stress Hormones ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Head Morphology

Long term population monitoring is essential to ecological studies; however, field procedures may disturb individuals. Assessing this topic is important in worldwide declining taxa such as reptiles. Previous studies focussed on animal welfare issues and examined short-term effects (e.g. increase of stress hormones due to handling). Long-term effects with possible consequences at the population level remain poorly investigated. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of widely used field procedures (e.g. handling, marking, forced regurgitation) both on short-term (hormonal stress response) and on long-term (changes in body condition, survival) scales in two intensively monitored populations of sea kraits (Laticauda spp.) in New Caledonia. Focusing on the most intensively monitored sites, from 2002 to 2012, we gathered approximately 11 200 captures/recaptures on 4500 individuals. Each snake was individually marked (scale clipping + branding) and subjected to various measurements (e.g. body size, head morphology, palpation). In addition, a subsample of more than 500 snakes was forced to regurgitate their prey for dietary analyses. Handling caused a significant stress hormonal response, however we found no detrimental long-term effect on body condition. Forced regurgitation did not cause any significant effect on both body condition one year later and survival. These results suggest that the strong short-term stress provoked by field procedures did not translate into negative effects on the population. Although similar analyses are required to test the validity of our conclusions in other species, our results suggest distinguishing welfare and population issues to evaluate the potential impact of population surveys.

Sampling estuarine copepods at different scales and resolutions: a study in Rio de la Plata

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 1059-1064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sourav Paul ◽  
Danilo Calliari
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Effort ◽  
Rio De La Plata ◽  
Population Densities ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Río De La Plata ◽  
La Plata ◽  
Resource Limitations ◽  
Paracalanus Parvus

AbstractIn the Rio de la Plata salinity, temperature, chlorophyll a (chl a), and densities (ind. m−3) of the copepods Acartia tonsa and Paracalanus parvus were measured from January to November in 2003 by following a nested weekly and monthly design. Such sampling yielded two separate datasets: (i) Yearly Dataset (YD) which consists of data of one sampling effort per month for 11 consecutive months, and (ii) Seasonal Weekly Datasets (SWD) which consists of data of one sampling effort per week of any four consecutive weeks within each season. YD was assumed as a medium-term low-resolution (MTLR) dataset, and SWD as a short-term high-resolution (STHR) dataset. The hypothesis was, the SWD would always capture (shorter scales generally captures more noise in data) more detail variability of copepod populations (quantified through the regression relationships between temporal changes of salinity, temperature, chl a and copepod densities) than the YD. Analysis of both YD and SWD found that A. tonsa density was neither affected by seasonal cycles, nor temporal variability of salinity, temperature and chl a. Thus, compared to STHR sampling, MTLR sampling did not yield any further information of the variability of population densities of the perennial copepod A. tonsa. Analysis of SWD found that during summer and autumn the population densities of P. parvus had a significant positive relationship to salinity but their density was limited by higher chl a concentration; analysis of YD could not yield such detailed ecological information. That hints the effectiveness of STHR sampling over MTLR sampling in capturing details of the variability of population densities of a seasonal copepod species. Considering the institutional resource limitations (e.g. lack of long-term funding, manpower and infrastructure) and the present hypothesis under consideration, the authors suggest that a STHR sampling may provide useful complementary information to interpret results of longer-term natural changes occurring in estuaries.

scholarly journals Towards the best future for humankind: ZIPAR whitepaper.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Kovic ◽  
Christian Caspar ◽  
Adrian Rauchfleisch
Keyword(s):  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Profound Impact ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
The Way

Humankind is facing major challenges in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term future. Those challenges will have a profound impact on humankind’s future progress and wellbeing. In this whitepaper, we outline our understanding of humankind’s future challenges, and we describe the way in which we work towards identifying as well as managing them. In doing so, we pursue the overall goal of ZIPAR: We want to make the best future for humankind (ever so slightly) more probable.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF WELDING PARAMETERS, TIME INTERVAL AND PREHEATING ON RESIDUAL STRESS AND DISTORTION OF JOINING ST52 STIFFENER RING IN AN AISI 4130 TUBULAR SHELL

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-15
Author(s):  
Alireza M. Haghighi ◽  
Farhad S. Samani
Keyword(s):  
Residual Stress ◽  
Welding Current ◽  
Welding Parameters ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Welding Line ◽  
Aisi 4130 ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

Stiffener rings and stringers are used commonly in offshore and aerospace structures. Welding the stiffener to the structure causes the appearance of residual stress and distortion that leads to short-term and long-term negative effects. Residual stress and distortion of welding have destructive effects such as deformation, brittle fracture, and fatigue of the welded structures. This paper aims to investigate the effects of preheating, time interval and welding parameters such as welding current and speed on residual stress and distortion of joining an ST52-3N (DIN 1.0570) T-shape stiffener ring to an AISI 4130 (DIN 1.7218) thin-walled tubular shell by eleven pairs of welding line in both sides of the ring by means of finite element method (FEM). Results in tangent (longitudinal), axial and radial directions have been compared and the best welding methods proposed. After the comparison of the results, simultaneous welding both sides of the ring with preheating presented as the best method with less distortion and residual stresses among the studied conditions. The correctness of the FEM confirmed by the validation of the results.

scholarly journals Intralymphatic immunotherapy for allergic rhinoconjunctivitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Author(s):  
M.P. Hoang ◽  
K. Seresirikachorn ◽  
W. Chitsuthipakorn ◽  
K. Snidvongs
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Specific Ige ◽  
Allergic Rhinoconjunctivitis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Intralymphatic Immunotherapy ◽  
Specific Igg4 ◽  
Igg4 Level

BACKGROUND: Intralymphatic immunotherapy (ILIT) is a new route of allergen-specific immunotherapy. Data confirming its effect is restricted to a small number of studies. METHODOLOGY: A systematic review with meta-analysis was conducted. The short-term (less than 24 weeks), medium-term (24-52 weeks), and long-term (more than 52 weeks) effects of ILIT in patients with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis (ARC) were assessed. The outcomes were combined symptom and medication scores (CSMS), symptoms visual analog scale (VAS), disease-specific quality of life (QOL), specific IgG4 level, specific IgE level, and adverse events. RESULTS: Eleven randomized controlled trials and 2 cohorts (483 participants) were included. Compared with placebo, short term benefits of ILIT for seasonal ARC improved CSMS, improved VAS and increased specific IgG4 level but did not change QOL or specific IgE level. Medium-term effect improved VAS. Data on the long-term benefit of ILIT remain unavailable and require longer term follow-up studies. There were no clinical benefits of ILIT for perennial ARC. ILIT was safe and well-tolerated. CONCLUSION: ILIT showed short-term benefits for seasonal ARC. The sustained effects of ILIT were inconclusive. It was well tolerated.

scholarly journals A Study of Multi-Scale Relationship Between Investor Sentiment and Stock Index Fluctuation Based on the Analysis of BEMD Spillover Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 399-420
Author(s):  
Weiguo Chen ◽  
Shufen Zhou ◽  
Yin Zhang ◽  
Yi Sun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Frequency Components ◽  
Original Scale

Abstract According to behavioral finance theory, investor sentiment generally exists in investors’ trading activities and influences financial market. In order to investigate the interaction between investor sentiment and stock market as well as financial industry, this study decomposed investor sentiment, stock price index and SWS index of financial industry into IMF components at different scales by using BEMD algorithm. Moreover, the fluctuation characteristics of time series at different time scales were extracted, and the IMF components were reconstructed into short-term high-frequency components, medium-term important event low-frequency components and long-term trend components. The short-term interaction between investor sentiment and Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and financial industries represented by SWS index was investigated based on the spillover index. The time difference correlation coefficient was employed to determine the medium-term and long-term correlation among variables. Results demonstrate that investor sentiment has a strong correlation with Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and different financial industries represented by SWS index at the original scale, and the change of investor sentiment is mainly influenced by external market information. The interaction between most markets at the short-term scale is weaker than that at the original scale. Investor sentiment is more significantly correlated with SWS Bond, SWS Diversified Finance and Shanghai Composite Index at the long-term scale than that at the medium-term scale.

Low Mortality of Larval Lampreys from Electrofishing, Suction-pumping, Anesthesia, and Handling

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 640-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey C. Jolley ◽  
Christina T. Uh ◽  
Gregory S. Silver ◽  
Timothy A. Whitesel
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Important Species ◽  
Pacific Lamprey ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Delayed Mortality

Abstract Native lamprey populations are declining worldwide. In the Pacific Northwest focus on conservation and management of these ecologically and culturally important species has increased. Concern has emerged regarding the effects of sampling and handling of lamprey, with little to no attention given to the larval lifestage. We monitored the survival of larval Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus and Lampetra spp. after backpack electrofishing, deepwater electrofishing and suction-pumping, anesthesia, and handling. We performed survival trials on wild-caught lamprey (n = 15 larvae in each trial) collected from the Clackamas River drainage in Oregon, USA, coupled with control group trials from lamprey sourced from a hatchery (n = 10 larvae). Short-term (96 h) survival was >98% with only one observed mortality. Delayed mortality (1 wk) was observed for four individuals that had fungus; two of those were positive for the bacteria Aeromonas hyrdrophila. We recorded blood hematocrit as a secondary measure of stress. The baseline, nonstressed larvae hematocrit levels did not differ from those of fish that had undergone stress through electrofishing, suction-pumping, and handling without anesthesia. Electrofishing, suction-pumping, and anesthesia showed no short-term negative effects on larval lamprey although potential long-term effects remain unstudied. These techniques appear to provide efficient and relatively safe methods for collecting and surveying larval lamprey.

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