scholarly journals Assessing the climate change impact on hydrological response in the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Rouhani ◽  
Marayam Sadat Jafarzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Scale

Abstract A general circulation model (GCM) and hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under forcing from A1B, B1, and A2 emission scenarios by 2030 were used to assess the implications of climate change on water balance of the Gorganrood River Basin (GRB). The results of MPEH5C models and multi-scenarios indicated that monthly precipitation generally decreases while temperature increases in various parts of the basin with the magnitude of the changes in terms of different stations and scenarios. Accordingly, seasonal ET will decrease throughout the GRB over the 2020s in all seasons except in summer, where a slight increase is projected for A1B and A2 scenarios. At annual scale, average quick flow and average low flow under the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios are projected to decrease by 7.3 to 12.0% from the historical levels. Over the ensembles of climate change scenarios, the simulations project average autumn total flow declines of ∼10% and an overall range of 6.9 to 13.2%. In summer, the components of flow at the studied basin are expected to increase under A2 and A1B scenarios but will slightly decrease under B1 scenario. The study result addresses a likelihood of inevitable future climate change.

scholarly journals Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Streamflow in the Vakhsh River Basin in Central Asia under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1426
Author(s):  
Aminjon Gulakhmadov ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Nekruz Gulahmadov ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Muhammad Naveed Anjum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
The Future

Millions of people in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan are dependent on the freshwater supply of the Vakhsh River system. Sustainable management of the water resources of the Vakhsh River Basin (VRB) requires comprehensive assessment regarding future climate change and its implications for streamflow. In this study, we assessed the potential impacts of projected climate change scenarios on the streamflow in the VRB for two future periods (2022–2060 and 2061–2099). The probable changes in the regional climate system were assessed using the outputs of five global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The probable streamflow was simulated using a semi-distributed hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Evidence of a significant increase in the annual average temperature by the end of the 21st century was found, ranging from 2.25 to 4.40 °C under RCP4.5 and from 4.40 to 6.60 °C under RCP8.5. The results of three GCMs indicated a decreasing tendency of annual average precipitation (from −1.7% to −16.0% under RCP4.5 and from −3.4% to −29.8% under RCP8.5). Under RCP8.5, two GCMs indicated an increase (from 2.3% to 5.3%) in the average annual precipitation by the end of 2099. The simulated results of the hydrological model reported an increasing tendency of average annual streamflow, from 17.5% to 52.3% under both RCPs, by the end of 2099. A shift in the peak flow month was also found, i.e., from July to June, under both RCPs. It is expected that in the future, median and high flows might increase, whereas low flow might decrease by the end of 2099. It is concluded that the future seasonal streamflow in the VRB are highly uncertain due to the probable alterations in temperature and precipitation. The findings of the present study could be useful for understanding the future hydrological behavior of the Vakhsh River, for the planning of sustainable regional irrigation systems in the downstream countries, i.e., Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and for the construction of hydropower plants in the upstream countries.

scholarly journals Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonghuan Fang ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Zhi Li ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantifying the uncertainty sources in assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes is helpful for local water management decision-making. This paper investigated the impact of the general circulation model (GCM) structural uncertainty on hydrological processes in the Kaidu River Basin. Outputs of 21 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), representing future climate change under uncertainty, were first bias-corrected using four precipitation and three temperature methods and then used to force a well-calibrated hydrological model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) in the study area. Results show that the precipitation will increase by 3.1%–18% and 7.0%–22.5%, the temperature will increase by 2.0 °C–3.3 °C and 4.2 °C–5.5 °C and the streamflow will change by −26% to 3.4% and −38% to −7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Timing of snowmelt will shift forward by approximately 1–2 months for both scenarios. Compared to RCPs and bias correction methods, GCM structural uncertainty contributes most to streamflow uncertainty based on the standard deviation method (55.3%) while it is dominant based on the analysis of variance approach (94.1%).

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Blanco-Gómez ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Series

This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.

scholarly journals Assessment of hydrological response in Subarnarekha river basin under anticipated climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin

<p>Two hydrological climate modelling techniques, general circulation model (GCM) and hypothetical climate change scenarios, were used to analyse the hydrological response to the anticipated climate change scenarios in the Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India. Both models verified individually for the same river basin and a comparative performance of the models was evaluated to relate the two models for the near (2014-2040) period climate. The hydrological response under the anticipated climate change in the Subarnarekha river basin is well assessed by GCM under the RCP 8.5 scenarios compared to the RCPs 4.5. Results indicate GCM best suited over the hypothetical climate change scenarios as GCM has demonstrated their potential in accurately reproducing the past observed climatic changes. The strong performance of the hypothetical climate change scenarios model, particularly for warming climate scenarios, suggests that it may have distinct advantages for the analysis of water balance components in the river basin. The monthly streamflows of Subarnarekha river basin was simulated using a total of 14 years (2000-2013) daily observed streamflow data in the ArcSWAT model integrated with model calibration and uncertainty analysis by means of SUFI-2 algorithm. The results indicate during the calibration the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) were reported as 0.98 and 0.97, respectively, while during the validation the R2 and NSE were obtained as 0.94 and 0.94, respectively, confirms the hydrological model performance was very good both in calibration and validation. The obtained climate change water impact index (ICCWI) values reveal the Subarnarekha river basin is more responsive to climate change. The reduction in precipitation along with the significant warming under the projected future climate is likely to reduce availability of water substantially in the study region. This work would be useful for the effective management of water resources for sustainable agriculture and in mitigating natural hazards such as droughts and floods in the study region.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Ecological and Hydro-Geomorphological Alterations under Climate Change Using SWAT and IAHRIS in the Eo River in Northern Spain

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1745
Author(s):  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Carolina Martínez Santa-María ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Northern Spain

Magnitude and temporal variability of streamflow is essential for natural biodiversity and the stability of aquatic environments. In this study, a comparative analysis between historical data (1971–2013) and future climate change scenarios (2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099) of the hydrological regime in the Eo river, in the north of Spain, is carried out in order to assess the ecological and hydro-geomorphological risks over the short-, medium- and long-term. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied on a daily basis to assess climate-induced hydrological changes in the river under five general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. Statistical results, both in calibration (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE): 0.73, percent bias (PBIAS): 3.52, R2: 0.74) and validation (NSE: 0.62, PBIAS: 6.62, R2: 0.65), are indicative of the SWAT model’s good performance. The ten climate scenarios pointed out a reduction in rainfall (up to −22%) and an increase in temperatures, both maximum (from +1 to +7 °C) and minimum ones (from +1 to +4 °C). Predicted flow rates resulted in an incrementally greater decrease the longer the term is, varying between −5% (in short-term) and −53% (in long-term). The free software IAHRIS (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers) determined that alteration for usual values remains between excellent and good status and from good to moderate in drought values, but flood values showed a deficient regime in most scenarios, which implies an instability of river morphology, a progressive reduction in the section of the river and an advance of aging of riparian habitat, endangering the renewal of the species.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujeet Desai ◽  
D. K. Singh ◽  
Adlul Islam ◽  
A. Sarangi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Central India ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract Climate change impact on the hydrology of the Betwa river basin, located in the semi-arid region of Central India, was assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), driven by hypothetical scenarios and Model of Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) Global Circulation Model projections. SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) was used for calibration and validation of SWAT using multi-site streamflow data. The coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio and percent bias during calibration and validation period varied from 0.83–0.92, 0.6–0.91, 0.3–0.63 and −19.8–19.3, respectively. MIROC5 projections revealed an increase in annual mean temperature in the range of 0.7–0.9 °C, 1.2–2.0 °C and 1.1–3.1 °C during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Rainfall is likely to increase in the range of 0.4–9.1% and 5.7–15.3% during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results indicated 3.8–29% and 12–48% increase in mean annual surface runoff during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, an increase of 0.2–3.0%, 2.6–4.2% and 3.5–6.2% in mean annual evapotranspiration is likely during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. These results could be used for developing suitable climate change adaptation plans for the river basin.

scholarly journals Hydrologic Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (20) ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland J. Viger ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
John W. Jones ◽  
Gary R. Buell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Watershed Model ◽  
Flint River

Abstract The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically downscaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface-runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.

Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia using a CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Darren L. Ficklin ◽  
Ab Latif Ibrahim ◽  
Zulkifli Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6 °C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21 °C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment.

Assessment of potential impact of climate change on streamflow: a case study of the Brahmani River basin, India

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 624-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kumari Vandana ◽  
Adlul Islam ◽  
P. Parth Sarthi ◽  
Alok K. Sikka ◽  
Hemlata Kapil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distributed Parameter ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Brahmani River basin, India has been assessed using a distributed parameter hydrological model Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) and multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios. The multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios were generated using the Hybrid-Delta ensemble method for A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios for three different future periods of the 2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099). There is an increase in annual mean temperature in the range of 0.8–1.0, 1.5–2.0 and 2.0–3.3 °C during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Annual rainfall is projected to change in the range of −1.6–1.6, 1.6–3.1, and 4.8–8.1% during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results indicated changes in annual streamflow in the range of −2.2–2.5, 2.4–4.7, and 7.3–12.6% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results showed an increase in high flows and reduction in low flows, but the frequency of both high and low flow increases during future periods. The results of this work will be useful in developing a water management adaptation plan in the study basin.

Recent climate variability and future climate change scenarios for

1998 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
D. Conway
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Sulphate Aerosols ◽  
Recent Climate

This article reviews recent climatically extreme periods in Great Britain and presents results from the latest general circulation model (GCM) experiments showing the possible spatial patterns and magnitude of future climate change for this region. During the last decade the British Isles has seen record-breaking periods of above-average temperatures, alongside periods with above and below-average precipitation, combined with an increase in winter precipitation and a decrease in summer precipitation. The impacts of these anomalies, coupled with the possibility that future climate change may increase their frequency and/or severity, have prompted the UK Department of the Environment, Transport and Regions and other organizations involved in environmental management, such as the Environment Agency, to commission a number of studies into their impacts. These have highlighted wide-ranging impacts on the natural environment of Great Britain and on human ativities to the extent of affecting the national economy. The use of GCMs for the development of future climate change scenarios is reviewed. Results from recent ensemble GCM experiments with and without the effects of sulphate aerosols are presented. These show broadly similar changes in temperature and precipitation to previous climate change scenarios prepared for Great Britain. In summary, the scenarios suggest the following: a warming of about 3 8C (3.5 8C) over the region by 2100 with (without) the effects of sulphate aerosols; slight increases in annual precipitation over northern England and Scotland, more pronounced increases over the whole of the region in winter; and slight decreases in precipitation over Wales and central England in summer. These changes are synchronous with decreases in the number of wet-days and increases in the intensity of precipitation on wet-days. The high level of uncertainty associated with regional scenarios of temperature and precipitation is discussed and emphasized

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