Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia using a CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Darren L. Ficklin ◽  
Ab Latif Ibrahim ◽  
Zulkifli Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6 °C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21 °C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Relative Importance of Land Use and Climate Change on Hydrology in Agricultural Watershed of Southern China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6423
Author(s):  
Lanhua Luo ◽  
Qing Zhou ◽  
Hong S. He ◽  
Liangxia Duan ◽  
Gaoling Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Soil Database ◽  
The Impact

Quantitative assessment of the impact of land use and climate change on hydrological processes is of great importance to water resources planning and management. The main objective of this study was to quantitatively assess the response of runoff to land use and climate change in the Zhengshui River Basin of Southern China, a heavily used agricultural basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the river runoff for the Zhengshui River Basin. Specifically, a soil database was constructed based on field work and laboratory experiments as input data for the SWAT model. Following SWAT calibration, simulated results were compared with observed runoff data for the period 2006 to 2013. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and the correlation coefficient (R2) for the comparisons were greater than 0.80, indicating close agreement. The calibrated models were applied to simulate monthly runoff in 1990 and 2010 for four scenarios with different land use and climate conditions. Climate change played a dominant role affecting runoff of this basin, with climate change decreasing simulated runoff by −100.22% in 2010 compared to that of 1990, land use change increasing runoff in this basin by 0.20% and the combination of climate change and land use change decreasing runoff by 60.8m3/s. The decrease of forestland area and the corresponding increase of developed land and cultivated land area led to the small increase in runoff associated with land use change. The influence of precipitation on runoff was greater than temperature. The soil database used to model runoff with the SWAT model for the basin was constructed using a combination of field investigation and laboratory experiments, and simulations of runoff based on that new soil database more closely matched observations of runoff than simulations based on the generic Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). This study may provide an important reference to guide management decisions for this and similar watersheds.

An Examination of Climate Change on Extreme Heat Events and Climate–Mortality Relationships in Large U.S. Cities

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Greene ◽  
Laurence S. Kalkstein ◽  
David M. Mills ◽  
Jason Samenow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Synoptic Classification ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract This study examines the impact of a changing climate on heat-related mortality in 40 large cities in the United States. A synoptic climatological procedure, the spatial synoptic classification, is used to evaluate present climate–mortality relationships and project how potential climate changes might affect these values. Specifically, the synoptic classification is combined with downscaled future climate projections for the decadal periods of 2020–29, 2045–55, and 2090–99 from a coupled atmospheric–oceanic general circulation model. The results show an increase in excessive heat event (EHE) days and increased heat-attributable mortality across the study cities with the most pronounced increases projected to occur in the Southeast and Northeast. This increase becomes more dramatic toward the end of the twenty-first century as the anticipated impact of climate change intensifies. The health impact associated with different emissions scenarios is also examined. These results suggest that a “business as usual” approach to greenhouse gas emissions mitigation could result in twice as many heat-related deaths by the end of the century than a lower emissions scenario. Finally, a comparison of future estimates of heat-related mortality during EHEs is presented using algorithms developed during two different, although overlapping, time periods, one that includes some recent large-scale significant EHE intervention strategies (1975–2004), and one without (1975–95). The results suggest these public health responses can significantly decrease heat-related mortality.

scholarly journals Assessing the climate change impact on hydrological response in the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Rouhani ◽  
Marayam Sadat Jafarzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Scale

Abstract A general circulation model (GCM) and hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under forcing from A1B, B1, and A2 emission scenarios by 2030 were used to assess the implications of climate change on water balance of the Gorganrood River Basin (GRB). The results of MPEH5C models and multi-scenarios indicated that monthly precipitation generally decreases while temperature increases in various parts of the basin with the magnitude of the changes in terms of different stations and scenarios. Accordingly, seasonal ET will decrease throughout the GRB over the 2020s in all seasons except in summer, where a slight increase is projected for A1B and A2 scenarios. At annual scale, average quick flow and average low flow under the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios are projected to decrease by 7.3 to 12.0% from the historical levels. Over the ensembles of climate change scenarios, the simulations project average autumn total flow declines of ∼10% and an overall range of 6.9 to 13.2%. In summer, the components of flow at the studied basin are expected to increase under A2 and A1B scenarios but will slightly decrease under B1 scenario. The study result addresses a likelihood of inevitable future climate change.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

scholarly journals Assessment of hydrological response in Subarnarekha river basin under anticipated climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin

<p>Two hydrological climate modelling techniques, general circulation model (GCM) and hypothetical climate change scenarios, were used to analyse the hydrological response to the anticipated climate change scenarios in the Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India. Both models verified individually for the same river basin and a comparative performance of the models was evaluated to relate the two models for the near (2014-2040) period climate. The hydrological response under the anticipated climate change in the Subarnarekha river basin is well assessed by GCM under the RCP 8.5 scenarios compared to the RCPs 4.5. Results indicate GCM best suited over the hypothetical climate change scenarios as GCM has demonstrated their potential in accurately reproducing the past observed climatic changes. The strong performance of the hypothetical climate change scenarios model, particularly for warming climate scenarios, suggests that it may have distinct advantages for the analysis of water balance components in the river basin. The monthly streamflows of Subarnarekha river basin was simulated using a total of 14 years (2000-2013) daily observed streamflow data in the ArcSWAT model integrated with model calibration and uncertainty analysis by means of SUFI-2 algorithm. The results indicate during the calibration the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) were reported as 0.98 and 0.97, respectively, while during the validation the R2 and NSE were obtained as 0.94 and 0.94, respectively, confirms the hydrological model performance was very good both in calibration and validation. The obtained climate change water impact index (ICCWI) values reveal the Subarnarekha river basin is more responsive to climate change. The reduction in precipitation along with the significant warming under the projected future climate is likely to reduce availability of water substantially in the study region. This work would be useful for the effective management of water resources for sustainable agriculture and in mitigating natural hazards such as droughts and floods in the study region.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change impact assessment on water security in South Africa: A case study in a semi-arid river basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 98 ◽  
pp. 06014
Author(s):  
Yali Woyessa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Semi Arid

The main aim of this paper is to assess the impact of regional climate change scenarios on the availability of water resources in a semi-arid river basin in South Africa using a hydrological model called Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this paper, climate change data was derived from two downscaling approaches, namely statistical downscaling experiment (SDE) and dynamic downscaling (CORDEX). These were derived from the GCM simulations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) and across two greenhouse gas emission scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The spatial resolution of the dataset for the SDE method is 25 km × 25 km and 50 km × 50 km for the CORDEX method. Six GCM models were used for SDE set of data and four for the CORDEX set of data. SWAT model was run using these data for a period of up to mid-century (2020 – 2050) for SDE and for a period of up to the end of this century (2020 – 2100) for CORDEX data. The results were then compared with long-term historical data (1975-2005). Comparison of measured data with simulated historical data showed strong correlation (R2 = 0.95 for SDE data and R2 = 0.92 for CORDEX data), which is indicative of the reliability of projected future climate.

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