scholarly journals Financial crisis 2007-2009. How real estate bubble and transparency and accountability issues generated and worsen the crisis

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (26) ◽  
pp. 201-221
Author(s):  
Bilal Aziz

This paper seeks to explain some main factors behind the Financial Crisis 2007–2009 with a special focus on the Real Estate Bubble and Transparency and Accountability Issues in US Financial System and how these two factors generated and worsen the crisis. Financial Crisis 2007–2009, which starts from the United States sub–prime mortgage market and spread to US financial sector and later on spread to the rest of world, is said to be an even bigger crisis than the Great Depression of 1929. This crisis is unique in this way and we haven’t seen such a bigger impact world wide from any other crisis. This paper would empirically prove the main causes which are right in the heart of the crisis and least discussed

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 224
Author(s):  
Eddison T. Walters

Data analysis in recent studies by the current researcher presented evidence suggesting the existence of a real estate bubble preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 was a false conclusion. Data analysis from Walters (2019) resulted in 194.041 Mean Dependent Variable, 0.989 Adjusted R-square, 5.908 Square Error of Regression, and 488.726 Sum-of-Square Residual, from nonlinear regression analysis with the independent variable of “advancement in technology”, which proved to be the most significant factor causing the dependent variable of “home purchase price” to increase preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Based on the findings of data analysis in Walters (2019), the researcher concluded the data confirmed the assertion agreed upon by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, it was impossible to have a real estate bubble, while citing the Efficient Market Hypothesis in 2005. Subsequent to 2005, alternative attempts to explain the existence of a real estate bubble were made by both former Chairmen of the Federal Reserve Board. Subprime lending and low interest rates were ruled out as the cause of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 in Walters (2019). As a result of the findings from Walters (2019), further investigation to gain an understanding of the impact of how the rapid adaption of advancement in technology influence on the rapid increase in home purchase price preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 is required. The purpose of this study is to gain an understanding of the role the rapid adaption of advancement in technology played in the mortgage industry and real estate industry in the United States, and the influence on to the rapid increase in home purchase prices preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 as a result of the changes. Insight into the rapid transformation of the mortgage industry and the real estate industry in the United States, and the role the transformation played in the crisis is a critical factor to understanding the impact of advancement in technology on the real estate market in the United States preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Failure to consider the impact of rapid adaption of advancement in technology on the mortgage industry and real estate industry, and the transformation of the real estate market preceding the Global Financial Crisis 2007 and 2008, was a significant error which led to the false conclusion of the existence of a real estate bubble. An understanding of how the rapid transformation of the real estate market as a result of advancement in technology in the United States preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008, will provide the critical knowledge to evaluate mistakes leading to the false conclusion of a real estate bubble preceding the crisis. The information gained from the current study will help avoid a future financial crisis of the same magnitude.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Eddison T. Walters

Based on the findings of the current study, policymakers must take a hard look at the media and themselves, because the world can no longer blame the subprime mortgage industry for causing the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The public must demand answers from the media and policymakers explaining how an economic crisis that could have been avoided resulted in the collapse of the global economy. The lack of evidence supporting the theory of a financial bubble and a real estate bubble called for further investigation of factors leading to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Evidence presented from data analysis in Walters (2018) suggested no financial bubble existed in developed or developing countries around the world, preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Based on data analysis in Walters (2018) the evidence also suggested, the lasting effect of economic policies in response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 for both developed and developing countries around the world, had no significant impact on the financial sector but pointed to a lack of economic growth. The findings raised significant questions about the existence of a real estate bubble in both developed and developing countries. Evidence from data analysis presented in Walters and Djokic (2019) suggested the existence of a real estate bubble in the United States real estate market preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 was a false conclusion. Data analysis in Walters (2019) resulted in, 0.989 Adjusted R-square, 194.041 Mean Dependent Variable, 5.908 Square Error of Regression, 488.726 Sum-of- Square Residual, and 0.00000 Probability (F-statistic), for correlation between the independent variable representing advancement in technology, and the dependent variable representing home purchase price in the United States preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The findings in Walters (2019) concluded the rapid increase in home purchase price in the United States real estate market, was due to increased demand for homes from the adaptation of advancement in technology in the real estate and mortgage industries. The current study expanded the investigation of the growth in home purchase price to fifteen developed countries around the world, building on the findings of previous research by the current researcher. The researcher in the current study concluded, the existence of significant and near-perfect correlation in many cases, between the dependent variable representing growth in home purchase price, and the independent variable representing advancement in technology. The analysis was based on data analyzed from fifteen developed countries around the world, which was collected between 1990 and 2006. The data analysis included home purchase price data from, Canada, United Kingdom, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, New Zealand, Sweden, Netherlands, Australia, Ireland, Belgium, Norway, Spain, and Portugal. Data preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 were analyzed in the current study. The researcher in the current study concluded the existence of overwhelming evidence suggesting advancement in technology was responsible for the rapid increase in home prices in developed countries around the world preceding the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The result of data analysis in the current study provided further confirmation of the accuracy of former Federal Reserve Board Chairmen, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke 2005 assessment which concluded, the occurrence of a real estate bubble developing was impossible due to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, before reversing course subsequent their assertion in 2005 (Belke & Wiedmann, 2005; Starr,2012). The result of the current study provided additional evidence supporting Eddison Walters Risk Expectation Theory of The Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The result from data analysis also confirmed the need for the adaptation of Eddison Walters Modern Economic Analysis Theory. As a result of the findings in the current study, the researcher concluded the development of a real estate bubble is impossible where there exists real estate price transparency, as is the case in most developed and developing countries. The researcher presented Walters Real Estate Bubble Impossibility Price Transparency Theory based on the findings. False information of a real estate bubble and predictions of a real estate crash disseminated through the mainstream media and social media can be a destructive force with a disastrous effect on the economy around the world. The failure by the media to hold themselves and policymakers to a higher standard resulted in the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. The result of the failure by the media was a worldwide economic crisis and the Great Recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008. Lessons learned from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 and 2008 can assist in preventing another economic crisis in the future.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (102) ◽  
pp. 213-267
Author(s):  
Ozlem Akin ◽  
José M Marín ◽  
and José-Luis Peydró

Abstract Banking crises are recurrent phenomena, often induced by excessive bank risk-taking, which may be due to behavioural reasons (over-optimistic banks neglecting risks) and to conflicts of interest between bank shareholders/managers and debtholders/taxpayers (banks exploiting moral hazard). We test whether US banks’ stock returns in the 2007–8 financial crisis are associated with bank insiders’ sales of their own bank’s shares in the period prior to 2006Q2 (the peak and reversal in real estate prices). We find that top-five executives’ sales of shares predict bank performance during the crisis. Interestingly, effects are insignificant for the sales of independent directors and other officers. Moreover, the top-five executives’ impact is stronger for banks with higher exposure to the real estate bubble, where a one standard deviation increase of insider sales is associated with a 13.33 percentage point drop in stock returns during the crisis period. Finally, even though bankers in riskier banks sold more shares (furthering their own interests), they did not change their bank’s policies, for example, by reducing bank-level exposure to real estate. The informational content of bank insider trading before the crisis suggests that insiders knew that their banks were taking excessive risks, which has important implications for theory, public policy and the understanding of crises, as well as a supervisory tool for early warning signals.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanwool Jang ◽  
Yena Song ◽  
Sungbin Sohn ◽  
Kwangwon Ahn

This paper studies the contribution of real estate bubble to a financial crisis. First, we document symptoms of a real estate bubble along with a slowdown of the real economy and find indicators of an imminent crash of the stock market, triggering a sense of déjà vu from the 2008 crisis. However, we show that the relationship between real estate and financial markets has changed since the crisis. The empirical analyses provide evidence that the monetary policy has recovered its control over mortgage rates, which had been lost prior to the global financial crisis, and that the real estate market does not have a Granger causality relationship with the stock market any more. Findings suggest that an imminent financial market crash is not likely to be catalyzed by a real estate bubble.


2021 ◽  
pp. 41-54
Author(s):  
Pola Latko

W artykule poddaję analizie sytuację mieszkaniową w wybranych państwach Europy i w Stanach Zjednoczonych. Artykuł został podzielony na kilka części opisujących przyczyny i skutki kryzysu hipotecznego w Stanach Zjednoczonych, bezdomności pracowników Doliny Krzemowej, „pęknięcia” bańki mieszkaniowej w Hiszpanii, problemów mieszkaniowych na Wyspach Brytyjskich (pustostany w Londynie i kryzys wynajmu w Irlandii), buntu lokatorskiego w Berlinie i ubóstwa mieszkaniowego w Polsce. We wstępie uzasadniam, dlaczego mieszkanie powinno być postrzegane jako prawo człowieka, a nie towar. Zwracam uwagę na to, że od lat 80. XX wieku rządy państw rozwiniętych wycofywały się z zarządzania gospodarką mieszkaniową, pozwalając na jej regulację mechanizmom rynkowym. W każdym z omawianych państw doprowadziło to do znacznego wzrostu cen nieruchomości i wynajmu oraz napływu kapitału spekulacyjnego. Jako odmienny przykład wskazuję Wiedeń, gdzie rynek nieruchomości jest wciąż regulowany przez miasto i dzięki temu zdołano uniknąć tego scenariusza. Housing crisis in selected European countries and in the USA In this article I analyze the housing situation in selected European countries and in the USA. The article is divided into several parts in which I describe causes and effects of the mortgage crisis in the United States, homelessness of Silicon Valley workers, the Spanish real estate bubble “burst”, housing problems in the British Isles (vacancies in London and the rental crisis in Ireland), the tenant revolt in Berlin and housing poverty in Poland. In the introduction I justify why housing should be seen as a human right and not as a commodity. I note that since the 1980s governments of developed countries have withdrawn from housing management, allowing it to be regulated by market mechanisms. In each of the countries under review, this has led to a significant increase in property and rental prices as well as an inflow of venture capital. As an opposite example, I mention Vienna, where the real estate market is still regulated by the city, thus it managed to avoid this scenario.


2011 ◽  
Vol 01 (04) ◽  
pp. 811-822 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard K. Green

In 2007 and 2008, the mortgage market failed. It failed in a number of dimensions: Default rates rose to their highest levels since the great depression, and mortgage liquidity ground to a halt. This failure has produced recriminations: Blame has been laid at the feet of borrowers, brokers, lenders, investment banks, investors and government and quasi-government entities that guaranteed mortgages. These recent events have produced an important debate: Whether the U.S. mortgage market requires a federal guarantee in order to best serve consumers, investors and markets. My view is that such a guarantee is necessary. I will divide my argument into four areas: (1) I will argue that the United States has had a history of providing guarantees, either implicit or explicit, regardless of its professed position on the matter. This phenomenon goes back to the origins of the republic. It is in the best interest of the country to acknowledge the existence of such guarantees, and to price them appropriately before, rather than after, they become necessary. (2) I will argue that in times of economic stress, such as now, the absence of government guarantees would lead to an absence of mortgages. (3) I will argue that a purely "private" market would likely not provide a 30 year fixed rate pre-payable mortgage. I think that this is no longer a particularly controversial statement; what is more controversial is whether such a mortgage is necessary — I will argue that it is. (4) I will argue that in the absence of a federal guarantee, the price and quantity of mortgages will vary across geography. In particular, rural areas will have less access to mortgage credit that urban areas, central cities will have less access than suburbs. Condominiums already are treated less favorably than detached houses, and this difference is likely to get larger in the absence of a guarantee.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-59
Author(s):  
Tham Kuen Wei ◽  
Rosli Said

A healthy real estate finance system is crucial for any economy to grow and thrive. However, in recent years, the sustainability and soundness of the Malaysian Real Estate Finance System had been in question as the number of non-performing property loans had been on the rise. This paper looks into how property NPLs originate within the real estate finance system in Malaysia and its current performance in Malaysia. A descriptive research design was conducted utilizing in-depth case studies of Malaysia to examine Malaysia’s real estate finance system consisting of loan originators in the primary market and the special purpose vehicle involved at the secondary mortgage market where it was found that the Malaysian Real Estate Finance System is efficiently developed and on par with other developed countries with a robust primary mortgage market, effective secondary mortgage market and a vibrant capital market. Further analysis found that there are a total of 57 financial institutions that are property loan originators in Malaysia that consists of 26 Commercial Banks, 16 Islamic Banks, 2 International Islamic Banks, 11 Investment Banks, and 2 Special Financial Institutions. In terms of NPLs in Malaysia, property loans are the largest component of total NPLs in the country, and subsequent analysis found that the number of property NPLs in the country had been rising since 2015, after a long decade decline. This study warrants further research into the causes of property NPLs in the country so that the causes of property NPLs can be monitored as part of the country's strategic monetary policy to control and reduce the number of property NPLs in the country. Ultimately, this also helps to contribute towards a sound and robust real estate finance system in Malaysia.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document