ALGORITHM FOR SELECTION OF LAUNCH ELEMENTS IN THE PRESENCE OF A PRIORI INFORMATION ABOUT ITS COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE

2018 ◽  
pp. 114-119
Author(s):  
O. I. Nemykin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Loss Function ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Measurement Information ◽  
A Priori Information ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Priori Information ◽  
Selection Of

Traditional methods of the theory of statistical solutions are developed for cases of making single-valued two-alternative or multialternative solutions about the class of an object. Assuming the possibility of ambiguous multi-alternative (in the case of solving the problem of selection of space objects of three-alternative) decisions on the classification of of space objects at the stages of the selection process, a modification of the traditional statistical decision making algorithm is required. Such a modification of the algorithm can be carried out by appropriate selection of the loss function. In the framework of the Bayes approach, an additive loss function is proposed, the structure of which takes into account a priori information on the structure and composition of launch elements in relation to the classes «Launch vehicle» and «spacecraft». The algorithm of decision making is synthesized under the conditions of a priori certainty regarding the probabilistic description of the analyzed situation. It is shown that the problem of verifying three-alternative hypotheses can be reduced to an independent verification of three two-alternative hypotheses, which makes it possible to take particular solutions in the solution process and use a different set of the signs of selection for the formation of solutions for individual classes of space objects. The peculiarities of the implementation of the selection algorithm are discussed in the presence of a priori information and measurement information on starts of a limited volume. The synthesized Bayesian decision making algorithm has the properties necessary to solve the problem of selection of space objects at launch in real conditions in the presence of measuring information specified in the form of a training sample. Its architecture allows to form unambiguous and ambiguous decisions about each space object in the launch.

PROCEDURE FOR FORMING AN EFFECTIVE SELECTION PROCESS RATIONAL REHABILITATION MEASURES FOR TREATMENT GYNECOLOGICAL DISEASES

2021 ◽  
pp. 108-114
Author(s):  
Ирина Николаевна Коротких ◽  
Михаил Вадимович Фролов ◽  
Марина Давидовна Михайлова ◽  
Ольга Леонидовна Бельских ◽  
Надежда Александровна Старокожева
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Diagnosis And Treatment ◽  
A Priori Information ◽  
Treatment Processes ◽  
Gynecological Diseases ◽  
Choice Of Treatment ◽  
Rehabilitation Measures ◽  
Priori Information ◽  
Attending Physician

В статье рассматривается ряд методов интеллектуальной поддержки принятия решений в диагностике и лечении гинекологических заболеваний. При применении высоких медицинских технологий возрастает роль лечащего врача (ЛВ), который по-прежнему остается лицом, принимающим решение (ЛПР). Однако применение этих методов принятия решений должно увязываться с логикой деятельности ЛВ, быть доступно для практического использования, освобождать ЛВ от "рутинной" работы и способствовать целенаправленному и эффективному лечебно-диагностическому процессу. Процессы диагностики и лечения гинекологических заболеваний характеризуются большим числом переменных и определяются индивидуальными характеристиками пациенток, рядом неопределенности при выборе тактики лечения. Процедура математического описания процессов лечения состоит из выбора метода моделирования в условиях неоднородностей. Выбор тактики лечения сводится к поиску эффективных алгоритмов, индивидуализирующих особенности каждой больной в процессе лечения, и позволяет врачу на основе опыта и интуиции принимать адекватные решения в любой момент времени. Вот почему, прежде всего, при выборе рациональных реабилитационных мероприятий в условиях неполной априорной информации требуется интеллектуальная поддержка принимаемых решений ЛВ. Для интеллектуальной поддержки принимаемых решений применяются методы имитационного эксперимента, основанные на априорной информации лечащего врача и эксперта для организации и алгоритмизации диалогового режима в ускоренном и реальном масштабе времени. Рассматривается алгоритмическая процедура процессов лечения The article discusses a number of methods of intellectual support for decision-making in the diagnosis and treatment of gynecological diseases. With the use of high medical technologies, the role of the attending physician (PD) increases, who still remains a decision-maker (DM). However, the application of these decision-making methods should be linked to the logic of the drug's activity, be available for practical use, free the drug from "routine" work and contribute to a purposeful and effective treatment and diagnostic process. The processes of diagnosis and treatment of gynecological diseases are characterized by a large number of variables and are determined by the individual characteristics of patients, a number of uncertainties in the choice of treatment tactics. The procedure for the mathematical description of treatment processes consists of the choice of a modeling method under conditions of inhomogeneities. The choice of treatment tactics is reduced to the search for effective algorithms that individualize the characteristics of each patient in the treatment process, and allows the doctor, based on experience and intuition, to make adequate decisions at any time. That is why, first of all, when choosing rational rehabilitation measures in conditions of incomplete a priori information, intellectual support for the decisions made by the dispensary is required. For the intellectual support of the decisions made, the methods of the simulation experiment are used, based on the a priori information of the attending physician and the expert for the organization and algorithmization of the dialogue mode in accelerated and real time. An algorithmic procedure for treatment processes is considered

scholarly journals Bayesian Perspective in the Selection of Bean Genotypes

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Tâmara Rebecca A. de Oliveira ◽  
Moysés Nascimento ◽  
Paulo R. Santos ◽  
Kleyton Danilo S. Costa ◽  
Thalyson V. Lima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Method ◽  
Block Design ◽  
A Priori ◽  
A Priori Information ◽  
Bayesian Procedure ◽  
R Software ◽  
Randomized Block Design ◽  
Priori Information ◽  
Selection Of

Changes in the relative performance of genotypes have made it necessary for more in-depth investigations to be carried out through reliable analyses of adaptability and stability. The present study was conducted to compare the efficiency of different informative priors in the Bayesian method of Eberhart & Russel with frequentist methods. Fifteen black-bean genotypes from the municipalities of Belém do São Francisco and Petrolina (PE, Brazil) were evaluated in 2011 and 2012 in a randomized-block design with three replicates. Eberhart & Russel’s methodology was applied using the GENES software and the Bayesian procedure using the R software through the MCMCregress function of the MCMCpack package. The quality of Bayesian analysis differed according to the a priori information entered in the model. The Bayesian approach using frequentist analysis had greater accuracy in the estimate of adaptability and stability, where model 1 which uses the a priori information, was the most suitable to obtain reliable estimates according to the BayesFactor function. The inference, using information from previous studies, showed to be imprecise and equivalent to the linear-model methodology. In addition, it was realized that the input of a priori information is important because it increases the quality of the adjustment of the model.

PROCEDURE AND ALGORITHMIZATION OF RATIONAL CHOICE OF REHABILITATION MEASURES DURING TREATMENT GYNECOLOGICAL DISEASES

2021 ◽  
pp. 114-120
Author(s):  
Ирина Николаевна Коротких ◽  
Михаил Вадимович Фролов ◽  
Юлиана Александровна Кувшинова ◽  
Людмила Ивановна Садова ◽  
Максим Владимирович Гладышев ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Therapeutic Effects ◽  
A Priori Information ◽  
Entire Treatment Period ◽  
Interactive Mode ◽  
Surgical Measures ◽  
Gynecological Diseases ◽  
Rehabilitation Measures ◽  
Priori Information

С развитием высоких медицинских технологий возрастает роль лечащего врача (ЛВ), который по-прежнему остается лицом, принимающим решение (ЛПР). Однако применение математических методов моделирования и адаптивных методов принятия решений должно увязываться с логикой деятельности ЛВ, доступно для практического использования, освобождать ЛВ от "рутинной" работы и способствовать более целенаправленному и эффективному лечебному процессу. Вот почему, прежде всего, при выборе рациональных реабилитационных мероприятий в условиях неполной априорной информации требуется интеллектуальная поддержка принимаемых решений ЛВ. Реабилитационные мероприятия при лечении гинекологических заболеваний выбираются из определенного множества медикаментозных, физиотерапевтических и хирургических мероприятий. Задача управления лечением в виде оптимизационной задачи позволяет формализовать процесс принятия решений при неоднородности задачи управления на начальном этапе, однако, при выборе лечения имеют место разного рода неопределенности, что требует применения адаптивного подхода. Для интеллектуальной поддержки выбора тактики лечения гинекологических заболеваний в условиях неполной априорной информации и ряда неопределенностей рекомендуется использовать для повышения эффективности принимаемых решений методы формализации априорной информации, поступающей от ЛВ, для настройки вероятностей привлечения критериев оптимизации, вероятности использования того или иного вида лечебного воздействия, математических моделей процессов лечения гинекологических заболеваний для организации и реализации имитационного эксперимента по принимаемым ЛВ решениям на весь период лечения (стратегия лечения) с использованием ЭВМ в диалоговом режиме в ускоренном масштабе времени и на каждый шаг лечения (тактика лечения) в реальном масштабе времени как по информации, поступающей от ЛВ, так и с использованием адаптивных алгоритмов выбора текущих целей лечения, вида лечебных воздействий и их величины. Таким образом, в статье рассматриваются задачи рационального (оптимального) планирования и выбора реабилитационных мероприятий при лечении гинекологических заболеваний на основе автоматизированного принятия решений With the development of high medical technologies, the role of the attending physician (PD) increases, who remains the decision-maker (DM). However, the use of mathematical modeling methods and adaptive decision-making methods should be linked to the logic of the drug's activity, be available for practical use, free the drug from "routine" work and contribute to a more purposeful and effective treatment process. That is why, first of all, when choosing rational rehabilitation measures in conditions of incomplete a priori information, intellectual support for the decisions made by the dispensary is required. Rehabilitation measures in the treatment of gynecological diseases are selected from a certain set of medication, physiotherapy and surgical measures. The problem of treatment management in the form of an optimization problem allows one to formalize the decision-making process when the control problem is heterogeneous at the initial stage, however, when choosing a treatment, there are various kinds of uncertainties, which requires an adaptive approach. For intellectual support of the choice of tactics for the treatment of gynecological diseases in conditions of incomplete a priori information and a number of uncertainties, it is recommended to use methods of formalizing a priori information from the drug to increase the efficiency of decisions made, to adjust the probabilities of invoking optimization criteria, the likelihood of using one or another type of therapeutic effect, mathematical models processes of treatment of gynecological diseases for the organization and implementation of a simulation experiment on the decisions made by the drug for the entire treatment period (treatment strategy) using a computer in an interactive mode in an accelerated time scale and for each step of treatment (treatment tactics) in real time as according to information received from drugs, and using adaptive algorithms for choosing the current goals of treatment, the type of therapeutic effects and their magnitude. Thus, the article deals with the tasks of rational (optimal) planning and selection of rehabilitation measures in the treatment of gynecological diseases based on automated decision making

MEASUREMENT AS ABDUCTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Roman Z. Morawski
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Problems ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Abductive Reasoning ◽  
Measuring System ◽  
A Priori Information ◽  
The Core ◽  
Measurement Results ◽  
Priori Information ◽  
Resolution Spectrometer ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract It is argued, in this paper, that the core operation underlying any measurement – the inverse modelling under uncertainty – is equivalent to quantitative abductive reasoning which consists in the selection of the best estimate of a measurand (i.e. a quantity to be measured) in a set of admissible solutions, using a priori information: (i) on the measurand, (ii) on the measuring system coupled with an object under measurement, and (iii) on the influence of the environment including the user of the measurement results. There are two key premises of this claim: a systematic interpretation of measurement in terms of inverse problems, proposed earlier by the author, and a logical link between inverse problems and abduction, identified by the Finnish philosopher of science Ilkka Niiniluoto. The title claim of this paper is illustrated with an expanded example of measuring optical spectrum by means of a low-resolution spectrometer.

EFFICIENCY OF NEW METHODS FOR ESTIMATING ORBITS OF UNKNOWN NEAREARTH SPACE OBJECTS USING SHORT OPTICAL TRACKS OBTAINED OVER A FEW WEEKS INTERVAL

2019 ◽  
pp. 92-104
Author(s):  
A. P. Ivanov ◽  
A. E. Kolessa ◽  
A. P. Lukyanov ◽  
V. A. Radchenko
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Quality Criterion ◽  
A Priori Information ◽  
Computing Power ◽  
Orbital Parameters ◽  
Near Earth Space ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Space Objects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Priori Information

The work on a representative array of data demonstrates the capabilities of a new, essentially non‑linear algorithm for estimating the orbital parameters of near‑Earth space objects on several short optical tracks separated by long time pauses. The analysis of the work of the algorithm was carried out for five space objects moving in different orbits, including circular, high‑elliptical and low‑orbit with deceleration in the atmosphere and without it. When obtaining estimates of the parameters of the orbits, a priori information was not used. In all the experiments performed, including for very short tracks separated by a long pause in the observations, the minimum possible values of the quality criterion were achieved. The algorithm does not require large computing power – the calculation of the orbit on two tracks on a portable personal computer takes a split second.

Innovative Approach to Information Search by Example of a Patent Analysis of an Important Substitution Plan

2020 ◽  
pp. 143-157
Author(s):  
Maria A. Milkova
Keyword(s):  
Information Search ◽  
Topic Modeling ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Innovative Approach ◽  
Iterative Search ◽  
Comprehensive Picture ◽  
Priori Information ◽  
Selection Of

Nowadays the process of information accumulation is so rapid that the concept of the usual iterative search requires revision. Being in the world of oversaturated information in order to comprehensively cover and analyze the problem under study, it is necessary to make high demands on the search methods. An innovative approach to search should flexibly take into account the large amount of already accumulated knowledge and a priori requirements for results. The results, in turn, should immediately provide a roadmap of the direction being studied with the possibility of as much detail as possible. The approach to search based on topic modeling, the so-called topic search, allows you to take into account all these requirements and thereby streamline the nature of working with information, increase the efficiency of knowledge production, avoid cognitive biases in the perception of information, which is important both on micro and macro level. In order to demonstrate an example of applying topic search, the article considers the task of analyzing an import substitution program based on patent data. The program includes plans for 22 industries and contains more than 1,500 products and technologies for the proposed import substitution. The use of patent search based on topic modeling allows to search immediately by the blocks of a priori information – terms of industrial plans for import substitution and at the output get a selection of relevant documents for each of the industries. This approach allows not only to provide a comprehensive picture of the effectiveness of the program as a whole, but also to visually obtain more detailed information about which groups of products and technologies have been patented.

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