scholarly journals The Use of Digital Tools to Mitigate the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparative Retrospective Study of Six Countries

10.2196/24598 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. e24598
Author(s):  
Kylie Zeng ◽  
Stephanie N Bernardo ◽  
Weldon E Havins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Digital Tools ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Border Control ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Containment Measures

Background Since the COVID-19 outbreak began in Wuhan, China, countries worldwide have been forced to take unprecedented measures to combat it. While some countries are still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, others have fared better and have re-established relative normalcy quickly. The rapid transmission rate of the virus has shown a greater need for efficient and technologically modern containment measures. The use of digital tools to facilitate strict containment measures in countries that have fared well against the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked both interest and controversy. Objective In this study, we compare the precautions taken against the spread of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and Italy, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, particularly related to the use of digital tools for contact tracing, and propose policies that could be used in the United States for future COVID-19 waves or pandemics. Methods COVID-19 death rate data were obtained from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), accessed through the Our World in Data database, and were evaluated based on population size per 100,000 people from December 31, 2019, to September 6, 2020. All policies and measures enacted were obtained from their respective governmental websites. Results We found a strong association between lower death rates per capita and countries that implemented early mask use and strict border control measures that included mandatory quarantine using digital tools. There is a significant difference in the number of deaths per 100,000 when comparing Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore with the United States, Spain, and Italy. Conclusions Based on our research, it is evident that early intervention with the use of digital tools had a strong correlation with the successful containment of COVID-19. Infection rates and subsequent deaths in Italy, Spain, and the United States could have been much lower with early mask use and, more importantly, timely border control measures using modern digital tools. Thus, we propose that the United States execute the following national policies should a public health emergency be declared: (1) immediately establish a National Command responsible for enacting strict mandatory guidelines enforced by federal and state governments, including national mask use; (2) mandate civilian cooperation with health officials in contact tracing and quarantine orders; and (3) require incoming travelers to the United States and those quarantined to download a contact tracing app. We acknowledge the countries we studied differ in their cultures, political systems, and reporting criteria for COVID-19 deaths. Further research may need to be conducted to address these limitations; however, we believe that the proposed policies could protect the American public.

scholarly journals The Use of Digital Tools to Mitigate the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparative Retrospective Study of Six Countries (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kylie Zeng ◽  
Stephanie N Bernardo ◽  
Weldon E Havins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Digital Tools ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Border Control ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Containment Measures

BACKGROUND Since the COVID-19 outbreak began in Wuhan, China, countries worldwide have been forced to take unprecedented measures to combat it. While some countries are still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, others have fared better and have re-established relative normalcy quickly. The rapid transmission rate of the virus has shown a greater need for efficient and technologically modern containment measures. The use of digital tools to facilitate strict containment measures in countries that have fared well against the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked both interest and controversy. OBJECTIVE In this study, we compare the precautions taken against the spread of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and Italy, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, particularly related to the use of digital tools for contact tracing, and propose policies that could be used in the United States for future COVID-19 waves or pandemics. METHODS COVID-19 death rate data were obtained from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), accessed through the Our World in Data database, and were evaluated based on population size per 100,000 people from December 31, 2019, to September 6, 2020. All policies and measures enacted were obtained from their respective governmental websites. RESULTS We found a strong association between lower death rates per capita and countries that implemented early mask use and strict border control measures that included mandatory quarantine using digital tools. There is a significant difference in the number of deaths per 100,000 when comparing Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore with the United States, Spain, and Italy. CONCLUSIONS Based on our research, it is evident that early intervention with the use of digital tools had a strong correlation with the successful containment of COVID-19. Infection rates and subsequent deaths in Italy, Spain, and the United States could have been much lower with early mask use and, more importantly, timely border control measures using modern digital tools. Thus, we propose that the United States execute the following national policies should a public health emergency be declared: (1) immediately establish a National Command responsible for enacting strict mandatory guidelines enforced by federal and state governments, including national mask use; (2) mandate civilian cooperation with health officials in contact tracing and quarantine orders; and (3) require incoming travelers to the United States and those quarantined to download a contact tracing app. We acknowledge the countries we studied differ in their cultures, political systems, and reporting criteria for COVID-19 deaths. Further research may need to be conducted to address these limitations; however, we believe that the proposed policies could protect the American public.

scholarly journals Parameter Estimation and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Turning Point and Ending Time of a Case Study on SIR/SQAIR Epidemic Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Amir Hossein Amiri Mehra ◽  
Mohsen Shafieirad ◽  
Zohreh Abbasi ◽  
Iman Zamani
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
The Real

In this paper, the SIR epidemiological model for the COVID-19 with unknown parameters is considered in the first strategy. Three curves ( S , I , and R ) are fitted to the real data of South Korea, based on a detailed analysis of the actual data of South Korea, taken from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). Using the least square method and minimizing the error between the fitted curve and the actual data, unknown parameters, like the transmission rate, recovery rate, and mortality rate, are estimated. The goodness of fit model is investigated with two criteria (SSE and RMSE), and the uncertainty range of the estimated parameters is also presented. Also, using the obtained determined model, the possible ending time and the turning point of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States are predicted. Due to the lack of treatment and vaccine, in the next strategy, a new group called quarantined people is added to the proposed model. Also, a hidden state, including asymptomatic individuals, which is very common in COVID-19, is considered to make the model more realistic and closer to the real world. Then, the SIR model is developed into the SQAIR model. The delay in the recovery of the infected person is also considered as an unknown parameter. Like the previous steps, the possible ending time and the turning point in the United States are predicted. The model obtained in each strategy for South Korea is compared with the actual data from KDCA to prove the accuracy of the estimation of the parameters.

scholarly journals Comparison of Catastrophic Out-of-Pocket Medical Expenditures in the US and South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 831-832
Author(s):  
Narae Kim ◽  
Mireille Jacobson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Health Care Expenditure ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Income ◽  
Medical Expenditure ◽  
System Level ◽  
Medical Spending ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Us

Abstract To date, relatively few studies have examined catastrophic out-of-pocket medical spending in the United States, especially in comparison to other high-income countries. We compared catastrophic out-of-pocket medical spending among adults age 65 and older in the United States versus South Korea, a high-income country with national health insurance that is often overlooked in cross-country comparisons. We defined catastrophic medical spending as health care expenditure for the past two years that exceeds 50% of one’s annual household income. Using data from the 2016 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA), we performed a logistic regression to examine the factors affecting catastrophic out-of-pocket medical spending for older adults in both countries. We also performed a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to compare the contribution of demographics factors versus health system-level factors to catastrophic out-of-pocket medical spending. The proportion of respondents with catastrophic out-of-pocket medical expenditure was higher in the US; the proportion was 5.8% and 3.0% in the US and South Korea, respectively. Both in the US and South Korea, respondents who were in the lower-income quartiles, who had experienced a stroke or had diabetes, and who rated their health as poor had higher odds of catastrophic out-of-pocket medical expenditure. The Blinder-Oaxaca non-linear decomposition showed that the significant difference in the rate of catastrophic out-of-pocket medical spending between the two countries was attributable to unobservable system-level factors, not observed differences in the sociodemographic characteristics between the two countries.

scholarly journals Report on COVID-19 Verification Case Study in Nine Countries Using the SIQR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reiji Suda
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Average Group ◽  
Inspection And Quarantine ◽  
The Government ◽  
Special Factors

AbstractThis report uses the SIQR model proposed by Takashi Odagaki to examine the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in nine major countries during February-May 2020, and to clarify the peculiar trend of infection in Japan. The SIQR model, which is an improvement on the conventional SIR model, is unique in that it allows us to theoretically clarify the epidemic phenomenon by separating the number of daily confirmed new cases by testing and the number of infecteds at large who remain untested, and also allows us to theoretically consider measures to control the epidemic. The infection control measures of each country were analyzed by dividing them into three groups according to the size of the decay (or growth) rate of infected at large (λ). The active group includes China and South Korea, the passive group includes the United States and Sweden, and the average group includes Germany, Italy, France, Spain, and Japan. China and South Korea are the countries with the best testing and quarantine systems, and South Korea in particular having managed to contain the infection without lockdown through early quarantine by thorough testing. On the other hand, the United States and Sweden do not have a well-developed inspection and quarantine system and have shown little restraint in social distancing. In the case of Japan, the following special factors may have contributed to the extreme lack of PCR testing : (1) The “4-day fever rule” established by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare was strictly enforced. (2) Even after the decision to postpone the Olympics, the government continued to monopolize PCR testing for the sake of unified analysis of infection data, and the policy of expanding PCR testing by private companies was not implemented.

scholarly journals Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Yamana ◽  
Sen Pei ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
County Level ◽  
Metapopulation Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Hospital Bed ◽  
Us Counties ◽  
Death Data

AbstractIn March and April 2020, control measures enforcing social distancing and restricting individual movement and contact were adopted across the United States in an effort to slow the spread and growth of COVID-19. However, a number of states have now begun to ease these restrictions. Here, we evaluate the effects of loosening stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 incidence and related outcomes. We use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the United States. We calibrate the model against county-level daily case and death data collected from February 21, 2020 to May 2, 2020, and project the outbreak in 3,142 US counties for 6 weeks into the future. Projections for daily reported cases, daily new infections (both reported and unreported), new and cumulative hospital bed demand, ICU bed and ventilator demand, as well as daily mortality, are generated. We observe a rebound in COVID-19 incidence and deaths beginning in late May, approximately 2 to 4 weeks after states begin to reopen. Importantly, the lag between infection acquisition and case confirmation, coupled with insufficient broader testing and contact tracing, will mask any rebound and exponential growth of the COVID-19 until it is well underway.

scholarly journals How Culture and Sociopolitical Tensions Might Influence People’s Acceptance of COVID-19 Control Measures That Use Individual-Level Georeferenced Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 490
Author(s):  
Jianwei Huang ◽  
Mei-Po Kwan ◽  
Junghwan Kim
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
South Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Benefits ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
Privacy Concerns ◽  
Age And Gender Differences ◽  
And Gender

This study extends an earlier study in the United States and South Korea on people’s privacy concerns for and acceptance of COVID-19 control measures that use individual-level georeferenced data (IGD). Using a new dataset collected via an online survey in Hong Kong, we first examine the influence of culture and recent sociopolitical tensions on people’s privacy concerns for and acceptance of three types of COVID-19 control measures that use IGD: contact tracing, self-quarantine monitoring, and location disclosure. We then compare Hong Kong people’s views with the views of people in the United States and South Korea using the pooled data of the three study areas. The results indicate that, when compared to people in the United States and South Korea, people in Hong Kong have a lower acceptance rate for digital contact tracing and higher acceptance rates for self-quarantine monitoring using e-wristbands and location disclosure. Further, there is geographic heterogeneity in the age and gender differences in privacy concerns, perceived social benefits, and acceptance of COVID-19 control measures: young people (age < 24) and women in Hong Kong and South Korea have greater privacy concerns than men. Further, age and gender differences in privacy concerns, perceived social benefits, and acceptance of COVID-19 control measures in Hong Kong and South Korea are larger than those in the United States, and people in Hong Kong have the largest age and gender differences in privacy concerns, perceived social benefits, and acceptance of COVID-19 measures among the three study areas.

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