scholarly journals Parameter Estimation and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Turning Point and Ending Time of a Case Study on SIR/SQAIR Epidemic Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Amir Hossein Amiri Mehra ◽  
Mohsen Shafieirad ◽  
Zohreh Abbasi ◽  
Iman Zamani
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
The Real

In this paper, the SIR epidemiological model for the COVID-19 with unknown parameters is considered in the first strategy. Three curves ( S , I , and R ) are fitted to the real data of South Korea, based on a detailed analysis of the actual data of South Korea, taken from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). Using the least square method and minimizing the error between the fitted curve and the actual data, unknown parameters, like the transmission rate, recovery rate, and mortality rate, are estimated. The goodness of fit model is investigated with two criteria (SSE and RMSE), and the uncertainty range of the estimated parameters is also presented. Also, using the obtained determined model, the possible ending time and the turning point of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States are predicted. Due to the lack of treatment and vaccine, in the next strategy, a new group called quarantined people is added to the proposed model. Also, a hidden state, including asymptomatic individuals, which is very common in COVID-19, is considered to make the model more realistic and closer to the real world. Then, the SIR model is developed into the SQAIR model. The delay in the recovery of the infected person is also considered as an unknown parameter. Like the previous steps, the possible ending time and the turning point in the United States are predicted. The model obtained in each strategy for South Korea is compared with the actual data from KDCA to prove the accuracy of the estimation of the parameters.

scholarly journals The Use of Digital Tools to Mitigate the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparative Retrospective Study of Six Countries

10.2196/24598 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. e24598
Author(s):  
Kylie Zeng ◽  
Stephanie N Bernardo ◽  
Weldon E Havins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Digital Tools ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Border Control ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Containment Measures

Background Since the COVID-19 outbreak began in Wuhan, China, countries worldwide have been forced to take unprecedented measures to combat it. While some countries are still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, others have fared better and have re-established relative normalcy quickly. The rapid transmission rate of the virus has shown a greater need for efficient and technologically modern containment measures. The use of digital tools to facilitate strict containment measures in countries that have fared well against the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked both interest and controversy. Objective In this study, we compare the precautions taken against the spread of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and Italy, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, particularly related to the use of digital tools for contact tracing, and propose policies that could be used in the United States for future COVID-19 waves or pandemics. Methods COVID-19 death rate data were obtained from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), accessed through the Our World in Data database, and were evaluated based on population size per 100,000 people from December 31, 2019, to September 6, 2020. All policies and measures enacted were obtained from their respective governmental websites. Results We found a strong association between lower death rates per capita and countries that implemented early mask use and strict border control measures that included mandatory quarantine using digital tools. There is a significant difference in the number of deaths per 100,000 when comparing Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore with the United States, Spain, and Italy. Conclusions Based on our research, it is evident that early intervention with the use of digital tools had a strong correlation with the successful containment of COVID-19. Infection rates and subsequent deaths in Italy, Spain, and the United States could have been much lower with early mask use and, more importantly, timely border control measures using modern digital tools. Thus, we propose that the United States execute the following national policies should a public health emergency be declared: (1) immediately establish a National Command responsible for enacting strict mandatory guidelines enforced by federal and state governments, including national mask use; (2) mandate civilian cooperation with health officials in contact tracing and quarantine orders; and (3) require incoming travelers to the United States and those quarantined to download a contact tracing app. We acknowledge the countries we studied differ in their cultures, political systems, and reporting criteria for COVID-19 deaths. Further research may need to be conducted to address these limitations; however, we believe that the proposed policies could protect the American public.

scholarly journals The Korean Version of the Academic Cyberincivility Assessment Questionnaire for Nursing Students in South Korea: Validity and Reliability Study (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minjoo Hong ◽  
Jennie C De Gagne ◽  
Hyewon Shin ◽  
Suhye Kwon ◽  
Gum-Hee Choi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Nursing Students ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Content Validity ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Fit Index ◽  
Assessment Questionnaire

BACKGROUND Cybercivility, the practice of what to say and how to say it in online environments, encourages individuals to treat each other with respect. However, the anonymity of online communities may lead some individuals to behave in ways that violate social and cultural norms. These individuals treat others with a lack of regard and even bully others in faceless online confrontations. This practice of cyberincivility can be found across the internet, on commercial sites, and in schools offering online courses. Research on cybercivility and cyberincivility has increased in the United States, where instruments have been developed to measure the impact of cyberincivility in health profession education. However, there is no available instrument that measures nursing students’ online behaviors in South Korea. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a Korean version of the Academic Cyberincivility Assessment Questionnaire developed in the United States. METHODS Data were collected from 213 nursing students in three South Korean colleges. The Academic Cyberincivility Assessment Questionnaire developed by De Gagne and colleagues was adapted to measure students’ knowledge of cybercivility, and their experiences with and acceptability of cyberincivility. Content validity was tested using the content validity index (CVI). Criterion validity was tested using the digital citizenship scale. Reliability was evaluated using Cronbach alpha. The goodness-of-fit of construct validity was determined through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. RESULTS The CVI was 0.8 or higher for all items. Kuder–Richardson Formula 20, measuring reliability of the knowledge scale, was 0.22 and Cronbach alpha, measuring reliability of the experience scale, was .96. The goodness-of-fit of the model was Chi square=5568.63 (<i>P</i>&lt;.001), the comparative fit index (CFI) was 0.92, and the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) was 0.08, which satisfied the criteria. The reliability of the acceptability scale was .96, and the goodness-of-fit indices satisfied the criteria (minimum Chi square/df=2.34, Tucker-Lewis Index =0.92, incremental fit index=0.93, root mean square residual=0.05, CFI=0.93, and RMSEA=0.08). CONCLUSIONS This study extended and reevaluated the US version of cybercivility scales in a culturally distinct context. The three dimensions of cybercivility include knowledge, experience, and acceptability. Acceptability is well-validated as a dimension, whereas the knowledge dimension requires reexamination for application to Koreans. A revision of the instrument is needed that considers the cultural differences between South Korea and the United States. This paper calls for more attention to be paid to contextualized cybercivility scales among health professions in countries outside the United States.

scholarly journals The Use of Digital Tools to Mitigate the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparative Retrospective Study of Six Countries (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kylie Zeng ◽  
Stephanie N Bernardo ◽  
Weldon E Havins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Digital Tools ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Border Control ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Containment Measures

BACKGROUND Since the COVID-19 outbreak began in Wuhan, China, countries worldwide have been forced to take unprecedented measures to combat it. While some countries are still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, others have fared better and have re-established relative normalcy quickly. The rapid transmission rate of the virus has shown a greater need for efficient and technologically modern containment measures. The use of digital tools to facilitate strict containment measures in countries that have fared well against the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked both interest and controversy. OBJECTIVE In this study, we compare the precautions taken against the spread of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and Italy, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, particularly related to the use of digital tools for contact tracing, and propose policies that could be used in the United States for future COVID-19 waves or pandemics. METHODS COVID-19 death rate data were obtained from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), accessed through the Our World in Data database, and were evaluated based on population size per 100,000 people from December 31, 2019, to September 6, 2020. All policies and measures enacted were obtained from their respective governmental websites. RESULTS We found a strong association between lower death rates per capita and countries that implemented early mask use and strict border control measures that included mandatory quarantine using digital tools. There is a significant difference in the number of deaths per 100,000 when comparing Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore with the United States, Spain, and Italy. CONCLUSIONS Based on our research, it is evident that early intervention with the use of digital tools had a strong correlation with the successful containment of COVID-19. Infection rates and subsequent deaths in Italy, Spain, and the United States could have been much lower with early mask use and, more importantly, timely border control measures using modern digital tools. Thus, we propose that the United States execute the following national policies should a public health emergency be declared: (1) immediately establish a National Command responsible for enacting strict mandatory guidelines enforced by federal and state governments, including national mask use; (2) mandate civilian cooperation with health officials in contact tracing and quarantine orders; and (3) require incoming travelers to the United States and those quarantined to download a contact tracing app. We acknowledge the countries we studied differ in their cultures, political systems, and reporting criteria for COVID-19 deaths. Further research may need to be conducted to address these limitations; however, we believe that the proposed policies could protect the American public.

scholarly journals The Korean Version of the Academic Cyberincivility Assessment Questionnaire for Nursing Students in South Korea: Validity and Reliability Study

10.2196/15668 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. e15668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minjoo Hong ◽  
Jennie C De Gagne ◽  
Hyewon Shin ◽  
Suhye Kwon ◽  
Gum-Hee Choi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Nursing Students ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Content Validity ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Fit Index ◽  
Assessment Questionnaire

Background Cybercivility, the practice of what to say and how to say it in online environments, encourages individuals to treat each other with respect. However, the anonymity of online communities may lead some individuals to behave in ways that violate social and cultural norms. These individuals treat others with a lack of regard and even bully others in faceless online confrontations. This practice of cyberincivility can be found across the internet, on commercial sites, and in schools offering online courses. Research on cybercivility and cyberincivility has increased in the United States, where instruments have been developed to measure the impact of cyberincivility in health profession education. However, there is no available instrument that measures nursing students’ online behaviors in South Korea. Objective The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a Korean version of the Academic Cyberincivility Assessment Questionnaire developed in the United States. Methods Data were collected from 213 nursing students in three South Korean colleges. The Academic Cyberincivility Assessment Questionnaire developed by De Gagne and colleagues was adapted to measure students’ knowledge of cybercivility, and their experiences with and acceptability of cyberincivility. Content validity was tested using the content validity index (CVI). Criterion validity was tested using the digital citizenship scale. Reliability was evaluated using Cronbach alpha. The goodness-of-fit of construct validity was determined through exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Results The CVI was 0.8 or higher for all items. Kuder–Richardson Formula 20, measuring reliability of the knowledge scale, was 0.22 and Cronbach alpha, measuring reliability of the experience scale, was .96. The goodness-of-fit of the model was Chi square=5568.63 (P<.001), the comparative fit index (CFI) was 0.92, and the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) was 0.08, which satisfied the criteria. The reliability of the acceptability scale was .96, and the goodness-of-fit indices satisfied the criteria (minimum Chi square/df=2.34, Tucker-Lewis Index =0.92, incremental fit index=0.93, root mean square residual=0.05, CFI=0.93, and RMSEA=0.08). Conclusions This study extended and reevaluated the US version of cybercivility scales in a culturally distinct context. The three dimensions of cybercivility include knowledge, experience, and acceptability. Acceptability is well-validated as a dimension, whereas the knowledge dimension requires reexamination for application to Koreans. A revision of the instrument is needed that considers the cultural differences between South Korea and the United States. This paper calls for more attention to be paid to contextualized cybercivility scales among health professions in countries outside the United States.

Menelaah Lebih Dekat “Post Factual/Post Truth Politics, Studi Kasus Brexit” (Analsis Resensi Media)

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eko Wahyono ◽  
Rizka Amalia ◽  
Ikma Citra Ranteallo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
New Media ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Struggle ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Mass Media ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Way

This research further examines the video entitled “what is the truth about post-factual politics?” about the case in the United States related to Trump and in the UK related to Brexit. The phenomenon of Post truth/post factual also occurs in Indonesia as seen in the political struggle experienced by Ahok in the governor election (DKI Jakarta). Through Michel Foucault's approach to post truth with assertive logic, the mass media is constructed for the interested parties and ignores the real reality. The conclusion of this study indicates that new media was able to spread various discourses ranging from influencing the way of thoughts, behavior of society to the ideology adopted by a society.Keywords: Post factual, post truth, new media

The Proximity of Other Skins

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celine Parreñas Shimizu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
The Other ◽  
The West ◽  
Pain And Suffering ◽  
The Spectator ◽  
Existing Frames ◽  
The Voice

Transnational films representing intimacy and inequality disrupt and disgust Western spectators. When wounded bodies within poverty entangle with healthy wealthy bodies in sex, romance and care, fear and hatred combine with desire and fetishism. Works from the Philippines, South Korea, and independents from the United States and France may not be made for the West and may not make use of Hollywood traditions. Rather, they demand recognition for the knowledge they produce beyond our existing frames. They challenge us to go beyond passive consumption, or introspection of ourselves as spectators, for they represent new ways of world-making we cannot unsee, unhear, or unfeel. The spectator is redirected to go beyond the rapture of consuming the other to the rupture that arises from witnessing pain and suffering. Self-displacement is what proximity to intimate inequality in cinema ultimately compels and demands so as to establish an ethical way of relating to others. In undoing the spectator, the voice of the transnational filmmaker emerges. Not only do we need to listen to filmmakers from outside Hollywood who unflinchingly engage the inexpressibility of difference, we need to make room for critics and theorists who prioritize the subjectivities of others. When the demographics of filmmakers and film scholars are not as diverse as its spectators, films narrow our worldviews. To recognize our culpability in the denigration of others unleashes the power of cinema. The unbearability of stories we don’t want to watch and don’t want to feel must be borne.

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