scholarly journals Machine Learning Analysis of Time-Dependent Features for Predicting Adverse Events During Hemodialysis Therapy: Model Development and Validation Study

10.2196/27098 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. e27098
Author(s):  
Yi-Shiuan Liu ◽  
Chih-Yu Yang ◽  
Ping-Fang Chiu ◽  
Hui-Chu Lin ◽  
Chung-Chuan Lo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Medical Staff ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Physiological Data ◽  
Blood Pressure Elevation ◽  
Muscle Cramps

Background Hemodialysis (HD) therapy is an indispensable tool used in critical care management. Patients undergoing HD are at risk for intradialytic adverse events, ranging from muscle cramps to cardiac arrest. So far, there is no effective HD device–integrated algorithm to assist medical staff in response to these adverse events a step earlier during HD. Objective We aimed to develop machine learning algorithms to predict intradialytic adverse events in an unbiased manner. Methods Three-month dialysis and physiological time-series data were collected from all patients who underwent maintenance HD therapy at a tertiary care referral center. Dialysis data were collected automatically by HD devices, and physiological data were recorded by medical staff. Intradialytic adverse events were documented by medical staff according to patient complaints. Features extracted from the time series data sets by linear and differential analyses were used for machine learning to predict adverse events during HD. Results Time series dialysis data were collected during the 4-hour HD session in 108 patients who underwent maintenance HD therapy. There were a total of 4221 HD sessions, 406 of which involved at least one intradialytic adverse event. Models were built by classification algorithms and evaluated by four-fold cross-validation. The developed algorithm predicted overall intradialytic adverse events, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83, sensitivity of 0.53, and specificity of 0.96. The algorithm also predicted muscle cramps, with an AUC of 0.85, and blood pressure elevation, with an AUC of 0.93. In addition, the model built based on ultrafiltration-unrelated features predicted all types of adverse events, with an AUC of 0.81, indicating that ultrafiltration-unrelated factors also contribute to the onset of adverse events. Conclusions Our results demonstrated that algorithms combining linear and differential analyses with two-class classification machine learning can predict intradialytic adverse events in quasi-real time with high AUCs. Such a methodology implemented with local cloud computation and real-time optimization by personalized HD data could warn clinicians to take timely actions in advance.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Analysis of Time-Dependent Features for Predicting Adverse Events During Hemodialysis Therapy: Model Development and Validation Study (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Shiuan Liu ◽  
Chih-Yu Yang ◽  
Ping-Fang Chiu ◽  
Hui-Chu Lin ◽  
Chung-Chuan Lo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Medical Staff ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Physiological Data ◽  
Blood Pressure Elevation ◽  
Muscle Cramps

BACKGROUND Hemodialysis (HD) therapy is an indispensable tool used in critical care management. Patients undergoing HD are at risk for intradialytic adverse events, ranging from muscle cramps to cardiac arrest. So far, there is no effective HD device–integrated algorithm to assist medical staff in response to these adverse events a step earlier during HD. OBJECTIVE We aimed to develop machine learning algorithms to predict intradialytic adverse events in an unbiased manner. METHODS Three-month dialysis and physiological time-series data were collected from all patients who underwent maintenance HD therapy at a tertiary care referral center. Dialysis data were collected automatically by HD devices, and physiological data were recorded by medical staff. Intradialytic adverse events were documented by medical staff according to patient complaints. Features extracted from the time series data sets by linear and differential analyses were used for machine learning to predict adverse events during HD. RESULTS Time series dialysis data were collected during the 4-hour HD session in 108 patients who underwent maintenance HD therapy. There were a total of 4221 HD sessions, 406 of which involved at least one intradialytic adverse event. Models were built by classification algorithms and evaluated by four-fold cross-validation. The developed algorithm predicted overall intradialytic adverse events, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83, sensitivity of 0.53, and specificity of 0.96. The algorithm also predicted muscle cramps, with an AUC of 0.85, and blood pressure elevation, with an AUC of 0.93. In addition, the model built based on ultrafiltration-unrelated features predicted all types of adverse events, with an AUC of 0.81, indicating that ultrafiltration-unrelated factors also contribute to the onset of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrated that algorithms combining linear and differential analyses with two-class classification machine learning can predict intradialytic adverse events in quasi-real time with high AUCs. Such a methodology implemented with local cloud computation and real-time optimization by personalized HD data could warn clinicians to take timely actions in advance.

Application of machine learning methods to assess progressive cavity pumps (PCPs) performance in coal seam gas (CSG) wells

2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Fahd Saghir ◽  
M. E. Gonzalez Perdomo ◽  
Peter Behrenbruch
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Coal Seam Gas ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Artificial Lift ◽  
Image Conversion

In Queensland, progressive cavity pumps (PCPs) are the artificial lift method of choice in coal seam gas (CSG) wells, and this choice of artificial lift production stems from the ability of PCPs to better manage the production of liquids with suspended solids. As with any mechanical pumping system, PCPs are prone to natural wear and tear over their operational life, and with the production of coal fines and inter-burden, the run life of PCPs in CSG wells is significantly reduced. Another factor to consider with the use of PCPs is their reliability. As per the CSG production data available through the Queensland Government Data Portal, there are approximately 6400 wells operational in the state as of December 2018. This number is expected to grow significantly over the next decade to meet both international and domestic gas utilisation requirements. Operators supervising these wells rely on a reactive or exception-based approach to manage well performance. In order to efficiently operate thousands of PCP wells, it is pertinent that a benchmark methodology is devised to autonomously monitor PCP performance and allow operators to manage wells by exception. In this study, we will cover the application of machine learning methods to understand anomalous PCP behaviour and overall pump performance based on the analysis of multivariate time-series data. An innovative time-series data approximation and image conversion technique will be discussed in this paper, along with machine learning methods, which will focus on a scalable and autonomous approach to cluster PCP performance and detection of anomalous pump behaviour in near real-time. Results from this study show that clustering real-time data based on converted time-series images helps to pro-actively detect change in PCP performance. Discovery of anomalous multivariate events is also achieved through time-series image conversion. This study also demonstrates that clustering time-series data noticeably improves the real-time monitoring capabilities of PCP performance through improved visual analytics.

scholarly journals Multivariate Real Time Series Data Using Six Unsupervised Machine Learning Algorithms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilan Figueirêdo ◽  
Lílian Lefol Nani Guarieiro ◽  
Erick Giovani Sperandio Nascimento
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Unsupervised Machine Learning

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms for classification purpose of undesirable events has gained notoriety in the industrial world. Nevertheless, for AI algorithm training is necessary to have labeled data to identify the normal and anomalous operating conditions of the system. However, labeled data is scarce or nonexistent, as it requires a herculean effort to the specialists of labeling them. Thus, this chapter provides a comparison performance of six unsupervised Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to pattern recognition in multivariate time series data. The algorithms can identify patterns to assist in semiautomatic way the data annotating process for, subsequentially, leverage the training of AI supervised models. To verify the performance of the unsupervised ML algorithms to detect interest/anomaly pattern in real time series data, six algorithms were applied in following two identical cases (i) meteorological data from a hurricane season and (ii) monitoring data from dynamic machinery for predictive maintenance purposes. The performance evaluation was investigated with seven threshold indicators: accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, F1-Score, AUC-ROC and AUC-PRC. The results suggest that algorithms with multivariate approach can be successfully applied in the detection of anomalies in multivariate time series data.

Development of A Drug Early Warning System Model for Cardiac Arrest Using Deep Learning: Retrospective Cohort Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Ko Chang ◽  
Hui-Chih Wang ◽  
Chih-Fen Huang ◽  
Feipei Lai
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Time

BACKGROUND In most of Taiwan’s medical institutions, congestion is a serious problem for emergency departments. Due to a lack of beds, patients spend more time in emergency retention zones, which make it difficult to detect cardiac arrest (CA). OBJECTIVE We seek to develop a Drug Early Warning System Model (DEWSM), it included drug injections and vital signs as this research important features. We use it to predict cardiac arrest in emergency departments via drug classification and medical expert suggestion. METHODS We propose this new model for detecting cardiac arrest via drug classification and by using a sliding window; we apply learning-based algorithms to time-series data for a DEWSM. By treating drug features as a dynamic time-series factor for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) patients, we increase sensitivity, reduce false alarm rates and mortality, and increase the model’s accuracy. To evaluate the proposed model, we use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS Four important findings are as follows: (1) We identify the most important drug predictors: bits (intravenous therapy), and replenishers and regulators of water and electrolytes (fluid and electrolyte supplement). The best AUROC of bits is 85%, it means the medical expert suggest the drug features: bits, it will affect the vital signs, and then the evaluate this model correctly classified patients with CPR reach 85%; that of replenishers and regulators of water and electrolytes is 86%. These two features are the most influential of the drug features in the task. (2) We verify feature selection, in which accounting for drugs improve the accuracy: In Task 1, the best AUROC of vital signs is 77%, and that of all features is 86%. In Task 2, the best AUROC of all features is 85%, which demonstrates that thus accounting for the drugs significantly affects prediction. (3) We use a better model: For traditional machine learning, this study adds a new AI technology: the long short-term memory (LSTM) model with the best time-series accuracy, comparable to the traditional random forest (RF) model; the two AUROC measures are 85%. It can be seen that the use of new AI technology will achieve better results, currently comparable to the accuracy of traditional common RF, and the LSTM model can be adjusted in the future to obtain better results. (4) We determine whether the event can be predicted beforehand: The best classifier is still an RF model, in which the observational starting time is 4 hours before the CPR event. Although the accuracy is impaired, the predictive accuracy still reaches 70%. Therefore, we believe that CPR events can be predicted four hours before the event. CONCLUSIONS This paper uses a sliding window to account for dynamic time-series data consisting of the patient’s vital signs and drug injections. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) only focuses on the score of vital signs, and does not include factors related to drug injections. In this study, the experimental results of adding the drug injections are better than only vital signs. In a comparison with NEWS, we improve predictive accuracy via feature selection, which includes drugs as features. In addition, we use traditional machine learning methods and deep learning (using LSTM method as the main processing time series data) as the basis for comparison of this research. The proposed DEWSM, which offers 4-hour predictions, is better than the NEWS in the literature. This also confirms that the doctor’s heuristic rules are consistent with the results found by machine learning algorithms.

scholarly journals Implementation of IoT Framework with Data Analysis Using Deep Learning Methods for Occupancy Prediction in a Building

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Eric Hitimana ◽  
Gaurav Bajpai ◽  
Richard Musabe ◽  
Louis Sibomana ◽  
Jayavel Kayalvizhi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Feed Forward Network

Many countries worldwide face challenges in controlling building incidence prevention measures for fire disasters. The most critical issues are the localization, identification, detection of the room occupant. Internet of Things (IoT) along with machine learning proved the increase of the smartness of the building by providing real-time data acquisition using sensors and actuators for prediction mechanisms. This paper proposes the implementation of an IoT framework to capture indoor environmental parameters for occupancy multivariate time-series data. The application of the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning algorithm is used to infer the knowledge of the presence of human beings. An experiment is conducted in an office room using multivariate time-series as predictors in the regression forecasting problem. The results obtained demonstrate that with the developed system it is possible to obtain, process, and store environmental information. The information collected was applied to the LSTM algorithm and compared with other machine learning algorithms. The compared algorithms are Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes Network, and Multilayer Perceptron Feed-Forward Network. The outcomes based on the parametric calibrations demonstrate that LSTM performs better in the context of the proposed application.

Prediction and Analysis of Gold Prices using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 4367-4374
Author(s):  
Gudipally Chandrashakar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning

In this article, we used historical time series data up to the current day gold price. In this study of predicting gold price, we consider few correlating factors like silver price, copper price, standard, and poor’s 500 value, dollar-rupee exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average Value. Considering the prices of every correlating factor and gold price data where dates ranging from 2008 January to 2021 February. Few algorithms of machine learning are used to analyze the time-series data are Random Forest Regression, Support Vector Regressor, Linear Regressor, ExtraTrees Regressor and Gradient boosting Regression. While seeing the results the Extra Tree Regressor algorithm gives the predicted value of gold prices more accurately.

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