Estimating HIV Prevalence and Incidence in Africa from Mortality Data

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Oster
Keyword(s):  
Population Based ◽  
Hiv Prevalence ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Hiv Virus ◽  
Current Prevalence ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract An estimated 33 million people are infected with the HIV virus, with 67% of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this, knowledge about HIV prevalence in Africa is limited and imperfect. Although population-based testing in recent years has provided reliable information about current prevalence in the general population, we have little reliable data on prevalence in early years of the epidemic. This paper suggests a new methodology for estimating HIV prevalence and incidence using inference from mortality data. This methodology can be used to generate prevalence estimates from early in the epidemic. This information is valuable for understanding how the epidemic has evolved over time and is also likely to be helpful in analyses that explore how policy affects the epidemic or how HIV affects other country-level outcomes.

scholarly journals Estimating the Fraction of Severe Malaria among Malaria-Positive Children: Analysis of Household Surveys in 19 Malaria-Endemic Countries in Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron Taylor ◽  
Sorrel M. L. Namaste ◽  
Joanna Lowell ◽  
Johanna Useem ◽  
Yazoumé Yé
Keyword(s):  
Severe Malaria ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Severe Illness ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Level Analysis

To date, the only robust estimates of severe malaria cases include children who present to the formal healthcare system. It is a challenge to use these data because of varying age ranges of reporting, different diagnosis techniques, surveillance methods, and healthcare utilization. This analysis examined data from 37 Demographic and Health Surveys and Malaria Indicator Surveys across 19 countries in sub-Saharan Africa collected between 2011 and 2018. The outcome of interest is a proxy indicator for severe malaria, defined as a proportion of children aged 6–59 months with at least one self-reported symptom of severe illness including loss of consciousness, rapid breathing, seizures, or severe anemia (hemoglobin < 5 g/dL) among those who were positive for malaria. The study includes a weighted descriptive, country-level analysis and a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model to assess the determinants of severe malaria. Among children positive for malaria across all surveys, 4.5% (95% CI: 4.1–4.8) had at least one sign or symptom of severe malaria, which was significantly associated with age, residence, wealth, and year of survey fieldwork at a P-value less than 0.05. This analysis presents a novel and an alternative approach of estimating the fraction of severe malaria cases among malaria-positive children younger than 5 years in malaria-endemic countries. Estimating severe malaria cases through population-based surveys allows countries to estimate severe malaria across time and to compare with other countries. Having a population-level estimate of severe malaria cases helps further our understanding of the burden and epidemiology of severe malaria.

scholarly journals National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

2012 ◽  
Vol 88 (Suppl 2) ◽  
pp. i17-i23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel R Hogan ◽  
Joshua A Salomon ◽  
David Canning ◽  
James K Hammitt ◽  
Alan M Zaslavsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Bias ◽  
Hiv Prevalence ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Selection Models ◽  
Type Selection ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Sub Saharan

scholarly journals Cervical cancer in Sub‐Saharan Africa: a multinational population‐based cohort study on patterns and guideline adherence of care

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Griesel ◽  
Tobias P Seraphin ◽  
Nikolaus CS Mezger ◽  
Lucia Hämmerl ◽  
Jana Feuchtner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Guideline Adherence ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan

scholarly journals Promoting Scale-Up Across a Global Project Platform: Lessons from the Evidence to Action Project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Ghiron ◽  
Eric Ramirez-Ferrero ◽  
Rita Badiani ◽  
Regina Benevides ◽  
Alexis Ntabona ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Health System Strengthening ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Multi Stakeholder

AbstractThe USAID-funded flagship family planning service delivery project named Evidence to Action (E2A) worked from 2011 to 2021 to improve family planning and reproductive health for women and girls across seventeen nations in sub-Saharan Africa using a “scaling-up mindset.” The paper discusses three key lessons emerging from the project’s experience with applying ExpandNet’s systematic approach to scale up. The methodology uses ExpandNet/WHO’s scaling-up framework and guidance tools to design and implement pilot or demonstration projects in ways that look ahead to their future scale-up; develop a scaling-up strategy with local stakeholders; and then strategically manage the scaling-up process. The paper describes how a scaling-up mindset was engendered, first within the project’s technical team in Washington and then how they subsequently sought to build capacity at the country level to support scale-up work throughout E2A’s portfolio of activities. The project worked with local multi-stakeholder resource teams, often led by government officials, to equip them to lead the scale-up of family planning and health system strengthening interventions. Examples from project experience in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda illustrating key concepts are discussed. E2A also established a community of practice on systematic approaches to scale up as a platform for sharing learning across a variety of technical agencies engaged in scale-up work and to create learning opportunities for interacting with thought leaders around critical scale-up issues.

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