Estimating Dynamic Income Responses to Tax Reform

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bertil Holmlund ◽  
Martin Söderström
Keyword(s):  
Tax Reform ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Large Panel ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tax Changes ◽  
Tax Payers

Abstract We study income responses to income tax changes by using a large panel of Swedish tax payers over the period 1991–2002. Changes in statutory tax rates as well as changes in tax bracket thresholds provide exogenous variations in tax rates that can be used to identify income responses. We estimate dynamic income models which allow us to distinguish between short-run and long-run effects in a straightforward fashion. For men, the estimates of the long-run elasticity of income with respect to the net-of-tax rate hover in a range between 0.10 and 0.30. The estimates for women are statistically insignificant. We simulate the fiscal consequences of a tax reform that reduces the top marginal tax rate by five percentage points. Such a reform may have negligible effects on tax revenues when the interactions between income taxes and other taxes are taken into account.

The Wage Response to a Reduction in Income Tax Rates: The Israeli Tax Reform

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roni Frish ◽  
Noam Zussman ◽  
Sophia Igdalov
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Rate Reduction ◽  
Or Education ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Wage Earners ◽  
Income Tax Reform

AbstractThis study examines the effect of an income tax reform on wages. An Israeli reform implemented in 2003–2009 reduced individuals’ marginal income tax rate by 7–17 percentage points. We utilized the differential and non-monotonic marginal tax rate reduction, and used Israel Tax Authority panel data of wage earners, merged with Labor Force Surveys. We found that in the business sector, the elasticity of reported gross wages relative to the net-of-tax rate is about 0.1. The wage earners in the lowest wage quintile were not affected by the tax reform, those in the second and third quintiles did not respond to the tax cut, but elasticity increased with wage, reaching about 0.4 in the upper decile. We did not find statistically significant differences in elasticity by gender, ethnicity, or education.

Tax Reform and Tax Experts

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Slemrod
Keyword(s):  
Tax Reform ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Normative Evaluation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Standard Deduction ◽  
Fiscal Imbalance ◽  
Tax Changes ◽  
Jobs Act

ABSTRACT The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), passed in 2017, represents the most comprehensive revision of the U.S. income tax since the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86). Although the TCJA shares many features with TRA86—corporate tax rate cuts, increasing the standard deduction, cutting back on deductions—it sharply differs in that it is neither revenue neutral nor distributionally neutral, both aspects of which are troubling in light of the large long-run federal fiscal imbalance and rising income inequality. Regardless of one's normative evaluation, the TCJA provides scores of natural experiments that can inform us about the consequences of tax changes on a wide range of economic behaviors.

Higher Taxes at the Top: The Role of Entrepreneurs

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Bettina Brüggemann
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Marginal Tax Rates

This paper computes optimal top marginal tax rates in Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari–type economies that include entrepreneurs. Consistent with the data, entrepreneurs are overrepresented at the top of the income distribution and are thus disproportionately affected by an increase in the top marginal income tax rate. The top marginal tax rate that maximizes welfare is 60 percent. While average welfare gains are positive and similar across occupations along the transition, they are larger for entrepreneurs than for workers in the long run, and this occupational gap in welfare gains after the tax increase widens with increasing income. (JEL D11, D21, D31, H21, H24, L26)

Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-250
Author(s):  
Scott R. Baker ◽  
Stephanie Johnson ◽  
Lorenz Kueng
Keyword(s):  
Shopping Behavior ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Fixed Costs ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Inventory Problem ◽  
Sales Taxes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Short Run ◽  
State And Local

Using comprehensive high-frequency state and local sales tax data, we show that shopping behavior responds strongly to changes in sales tax rates. Even though sales taxes are not observed in posted prices and have a wide range of rates and exemptions, consumers adjust in many dimensions. They stock up on storable goods before taxes rise and increase online and cross-border shopping in both the short and long run. The difference between short- and long-run spending responses has important implications for the efficacy of using sales taxes for countercyclical policy and for the design of an optimal tax framework. Interestingly, households adjust spending similarly for both taxable and tax-exempt goods. We embed an inventory problem into a continuous-time consumption-savings model and demonstrate that this behavior is optimal in the presence of shopping trip fixed costs. The model successfully matches estimated short-run and long-run tax elasticities. We provide additional evidence in favor of this new shopping complementarity mechanism. (JEL E21, E32, G51, H21, H25, H71)

scholarly journals Income Taxes, Compensating Differentials, and Occupational Choice: How Taxes Distort the Wage-Amenity Decision

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 224-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Powell ◽  
Hui Shan
Keyword(s):  
Occupational Choice ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Compensating Differentials ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Occupational Choices ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Welfare Impacts ◽  
Percent Increase

The link between taxes and occupational choices is central for understanding the welfare impacts of income taxes. Just as taxes distort the labor-leisure decision, they may also distort the wage-amenity decision. Yet, there have been few studies on the full response along this margin. When tax rates increase, workers favor jobs with lower wages and more amenities. We introduce a two-step methodology which uses compensating differentials to characterize the tax elasticity of occupational choice. We estimate a significant compensated elasticity of 0.03, implying that a 10 percent increase in the net-of-tax rate causes workers to change to a 0.3 percent higher wage job. (JEL H24, H31, J22, J24, J31)

scholarly journals What are effects of tax changes on market risk? - a case in listed Viet Nam investment and financial service companies

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (Extra-E) ◽  
pp. 497-504
Author(s):  
Phan Anh ◽  
Nguyen Dinh Trung ◽  
Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy
Keyword(s):  
Service Industry ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Financial Service ◽  
Viet Nam ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Financial Service Industry ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Tax Changes

The financial crisis has been affected many global stock markets, as well as the Viet Nam stock exchange. This study analyzes the impacts of tax policy on market risk for the listed firms in the non-banking financial service and investment industry, so-called financial service industry, as it becomes necessary. First, by using quantitative and analytical methods to estimate asset and equity beta of total 10 listed companies in Viet Nam financial service industry with a proper traditional model, we found out that the beta values, in general, for many companies are acceptable. Second, under 3 different scenarios of changing tax rates (20%, 25% and 28%), we recognized that there is not large disperse in equity beta values, estimated at 1,048, 1,050 and 1,052.These values are just little higher than those of the listed VN construction firms but much higher than those of listed banking firms. Third, by changing tax rates in 3 scenarios (25%, 20% and 28%), we recognized equity /asset beta are most the same (0,23 and 0,16) if tax rate increases from 20% to 25%, then goes up from 25% to 28%.

scholarly journals Estimating Adjustment Frictions Using Nonlinear Budget Sets: Method and Evidence from the Earnings Test

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander M. Gelber ◽  
Damon Jones ◽  
Daniel W. Sacks
Keyword(s):  
Adjustment Cost ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
The Social ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Earnings Test ◽  
Social Security Earnings Test ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Induced Changes

We introduce a method for estimating the cost of adjusting earnings, as well as the earnings elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax share. Our method uses information on bunching in the earnings distribution at convex budget set kinks before and after policy-induced changes in the magnitude of the kinks: the larger is the adjustment cost, the smaller is the absolute change in bunching from before to after the policy change. In the context of the Social Security Earnings Test, our results demonstrate that the short-run impact of changes in the effective marginal tax rate can be substantially attenuated. (JEL H24, H31, H55, J22, J31)

scholarly journals The Aging of the Baby Boomers: Demographics and Propagation of Tax Shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-193
Author(s):  
Domenico Ferraro ◽  
Giuseppe Fiori
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Baby Boomers ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Shocks ◽  
Tax Changes ◽  
Tax Cuts

We study how the changing demographic composition of the US labor force has affected the response of the unemployment rate to marginal tax rate shocks. Using narratively identified tax changes as proxies for structural shocks, we establish that the responsiveness of the unemployment rates to tax changes varies significantly across age groups: the unemployment rate response of the young is nearly twice as large as that of the old. This heterogeneity is the channel through which shifts in the age composition of the labor force impact the response of the unemployment rate to tax cuts. We find that the aging of the baby boomers considerably reduces the effects of tax cuts on aggregate unemployment. (JEL E24, E62, H24, H31, J21)

scholarly journals Reforming the individual income tax in Spain

SERIEs ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nezih Guner ◽  
Javier López-Segovia ◽  
Roberto Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Labor Supply ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual

AbstractCan the Spanish government generate more tax revenue by making personal income taxes more progressive? To answer this question, we build a life-cycle economy with uninsurable labor productivity risk and endogenous labor supply. Individuals face progressive taxes on labor and capital incomes and proportional taxes that capture social security, corporate income, and consumption taxes. Our answer is yes, but not much. A reform that increases labor income taxes for individuals who earn more than the mean labor income and reduces taxes for those who earn less than the mean labor income generates a small additional revenue. The revenue from labor income taxes is maximized at an effective marginal tax rate of 51.6% (38.9%) for the richest 1% (5%) of individuals, versus 46.3% (34.7%) in the benchmark economy. The increase in revenue from labor income taxes is only 0.82%, while the total tax revenue declines by 1.55%. The higher progressivity is associated with lower aggregate labor supply and capital. As a result, the government collects higher taxes from a smaller economy. The total tax revenue is higher if marginal taxes are raised only for the top earners. The increase, however, must be substantial and cover a large segment of top earners. The rise in tax collection from a 3 percentage points increase on the top 1% is just 0.09%. A 10 percentage points increase on the top 10% of earners (those who earn more than €41,699) raises total tax revenue by 2.81%.

scholarly journals Taxes and Capital Structure

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mara Faccio ◽  
Jin Xu
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Income Taxes ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Natural Experiments ◽  
Corporate Tax ◽  
Personal Taxes ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Tax Payers

AbstractWe use nearly 500 shifts in statutory corporate and personal income tax rates as natural experiments to assess the effect of corporate and personal taxes on capital structure. We find both corporate and personal income taxes to be significant determinants of capital structure. Based on ex post observed summary statistics, across Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries, taxes appear to be as important as other traditional variables in explaining capital structure choices. The results are stronger among corporate tax payers, dividend payers, and companies that are more likely to have an individual as the marginal investor.

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