FUTURE CHANGE IN MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE IN ISE BAY BASED ON DYNAMICAL DIRECT DOWNSCALING EXPERIMENTS

IPCC AR5 reported that the extreme events like tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and so on will be strengthen. The winter cyclone is one of the cause of coastal hazard. The winter cyclone is defined as the extratropical depression with rapid development. It causes high wave and storm surge from winter to spring, and Japan sometimes have casualties and economical loss. Some researches reported that the number of winter cyclone tend to increase. Because its tendency seems to go on, future change estimation of winter cyclone activity is important for disaster reduction. Understanding of winter cyclone is developing. For example, Yoshida and Asuma showed that the winter cyclones are classified by their track and the development of winter cyclone is related to lateral heat flux. On the other hand, almost of all researches of impact assessment on coastal hazard focus on the tropical cyclone. Mori et al. showed the maximum potential storm surge in Japan using maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclone and GCM outputs, and large storm surge will increase. Shimura et al. showed that extreme wave caused by the tropical cyclone will develop at offshore region of east from Japan. This research aims to reveal stochastic future change of winter cyclone using the database for policy decision making for future climate change (after here, d4PDF) which is huge ensemble dataset of present- and futureclimate. Then, the risk of coastal hazard will be evaluate.

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Storm Surge Inundation Analysis with Consideration of Building Shape and Layout at Ise Bay by Maximum Potential Typhoon

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse8121024 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 1024

Author(s):

Masaki Nimura ◽

Shuzo Nishida ◽

Koji Kawasaki ◽

Tomokazu Murakami ◽

Shinya Shimokawa

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

High Resolution ◽

Sea Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

High Velocity ◽

High Tide ◽

Disaster Mitigation ◽

Ise Bay ◽

Building Shape ◽

Tide Level

Global warming is feared to cause sea-level rise and intensification of typhoons, and these changes will lead to an increase in storm surge levels. For that reason, it is essential to predict the inundation areas for the maximum potential typhoon and evaluate the disaster mitigation effect of seawalls. In this study, we analyzed storm surge inundation of the inner part of Ise Bay (coast of Aichi and Mie Prefecture, Japan) due to the maximum potential typhoon in the future climate with global warming. In the analysis, a high-resolution topographical model was constructed considering buildings’ shape and arrangement and investigated the inundation process inside the seawall in detail. The results showed that buildings strongly influence the storm surge inundation process inside the seawall, and a high-velocity current is generated in some areas. It is also found that closing the seawall door delays the inundation inside the seawall, but the evacuation after inundation is more difficult under the seawall doors closed condition than opened condition when the high tide level exceeds the seawall.

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ESTIMATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT AND STORM SURGE DEVIATION AT TOKYO BAY AND COMPARISON TO THAT OF ISE BAY

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B2 (Coastal Engineering) ◽

10.2208/kaigan.75.i_247 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 75 (2) ◽

pp. I_247-I_252

Author(s):

Yoshio HATADA ◽

Koichi INAGAKI

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

Wave Height ◽

Tokyo Bay ◽

Simultaneous Occurrence ◽

Maximum Wave Height ◽

Ise Bay

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Comparison of Return Storm Surge Height and Return Wave Height at Ise Bay Based on 56 Years of Hindcasted Results

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B2 (Coastal Engineering) ◽

10.2208/kaigan.69.i_96 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 69 (2) ◽

pp. I_96-I_100

Author(s):

Yoshio HATADA ◽

Kyohei INO

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

Wave Height ◽

Ise Bay ◽

Surge Height

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Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-18-351-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

pp. 351-364 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mansur Ali Jisan ◽

Shaowu Bao ◽

Leonard J. Pietrafesa

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

21St Century ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Future Change ◽

Inundation Area ◽

Projected Changes ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.

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